基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下松褐天牛在我国的潜在适生区

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230073

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 预测松褐天牛在我国最新的潜在适生区及其对气候变化的响应，为松褐天牛的传播风险分析及其精准防控提供理论依据。方法: 利用松褐天牛650个分布点数据和20个环境变量，基于优化的MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS 10.7软件，预测当前和未来气候情景下松褐天牛在我国的潜在适生区分布及其空间格局变化。结果: 模型优化结果显示，当特征组合选取线型、二次型、铰链型、乘积型，调控倍频设置为1.5时，模型为最优模型，准确度最高；Jackknife检验表明，温差月均值、年降水量、最干月降水量、最暖季度降水量和海拔是影响松褐天牛分布的主导环境变量；在当前气候情景下，松褐天牛在我国的适生区主要分布于黄河以南地区；在未来气候情景下，松褐天牛的适生区面积呈显著增加趋势，新增适生区主要集中于陕西省、河南省、甘肃省、山东省和辽宁省。结论: 优化后的MaxEnt模型能够准确预测松褐天牛在我国的潜在适生区分布；温度和降水是影响松褐天牛分布的主导环境变量；气候变化会引起松褐天牛适生区迁移。

关键词: 松褐天牛, 优化的MaxEnt模型, 适生区, 气候变化

Abstract:

Objective: To predict the latest potential suitable areas of Monochamus alternatus in China and its responses to climate change, so as to a theoretical basis for the risk analysis and the precise prevention and control of M. alternatus in China. Method: Based on the latest 650 occurrence data of M. alternatus and 20 environmental factors, the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.7 software were used to predict the current and future potentially suitable areas of M. alternatus in China under different climatic conditions. Result: The results of model optimization show that when the feature combination of LQHP (linear, quadratic, hinge, product) is selected and the regularization multiplication is set to 1.5, the model is the optimal one with the highest accuracy. The Jackknife shows that the monthly mean temperature difference, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, precipitation of warmest quarter and elevation were the dominant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. alternatus. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable areas of M. alternatus in China are mainly distributed in the areas south of the Yellow River. Under the future climate scenarios, there is a significant increase trend for the potentially suitable areas of M. alternatus, and the newly added areas are mainly concentrated in Shaanxi, Henan, Gansu, Shandong and Liaoning Province. Conclusion: The optimized MaxEnt model can accurately predict the distribution of M. alternatus in our country. Temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of M. alternatus. Climate change will cause the migration of suitable areas of M. alternatus.

Key words: Monochamus alternatus, the optimized MaxEnt model, suitable area, climate change

中图分类号:

S718

刘磊,赵立娟,刘佳奇,张辉盛,张志伟,黄瑞芬,高瑞贺. 基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下松褐天牛在我国的潜在适生区[J]. 林业科学, 2024, 60(11): 139-148.

Lei Liu,Lijuan Zhao,Jiaqi Liu,Huisheng Zhang,Zhiwei Zhang,Ruifen Huang,Ruihe Gao. Potentially Suitable Distribution Areas of Monochamus alternatus in China under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2024, 60(11): 139-148.

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环境变量 Environment variables	贡献率 Contribution rate(%)	适宜范围 Suitable range
最干月降水量Precipitation of driest month （Bio14）/mm	59	21~75
年降水量Annual precipitation （Bio12）/mm	18.9	1 080~1 912
海拔 Elevation （Elev）/m	9.9	6~269
温度季节性标准差Temperature seasonality （Bio4）/℃	3.7	1 285~1 345
等温性Isothermality （Bio3）（%）	3.3	24~28
降水量季节性Precipitation seasonality （Bio15）（%）	1.9	44~70
昼夜温差月均值Mean diurnal range （Bio2）/℃	1.4	6~9
最湿季度平均温度Mean temperature of the wettest quarter （Bio8）/℃	1.4	19~37
最暖季度降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter （Bio18）/mm	0.5	444~692

FC	RM	OR_MTP	OR₁₀	ΔAICc
LQHP	1.0	0.041660	0.152778	3.5386
LQHP	1.5	0.006944	0.145833	0
LQHPT	1.5	0.006944	0.152778	0

年份 Decade	情景 Scenarios	适生区类型 Suitable habitat type
年份 Decade	情景 Scenarios	高High	中Medium	低Low
当前Current		0.63	0.71	0.67
2050s	SSP126	0.75（19.05%）	0.72（1.41%）	0.65（?2.99%）
2050s	SSP585	0.76（20.63%）	0.71（?）	0.64（?4.48%）
2100s	SSP126	0.75（19.05%）	0.70（?1.41%）	0.66（?1.49%）
2100s	SSP585	0.73（15.87%）	0.75（5.63%）	0.63（?5.97%）

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