气候政策不确定性对林业高质量发展的影响

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250381

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 探究气候政策不确定性和林业高质量发展间的相关性，深入理解其影响机制、量化评估气候政策不确定性给林业高质量发展带来的风险和机遇，探索林业高质量发展的有效路径。方法: 基于2012—2022年中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）面板数据，构建林业高质量发展综合评价指标体系，采用熵值法测度31个省（自治区、直辖市）的林业高质量发展水平，利用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型实证分析气候政策不确定性和林业高质量发展间的因果关系及其作用机制。结果: 1）气候政策不确定性对林业高质量发展水平具有显著负向影响，经过一系列稳健性检验后该结果依然成立；2）气候政策不确定性通过降低林业领域的科技人力资源投入从而抑制林业高质量发展水平；3）气候政策不确定性对林业高质量发展的负向影响在东部地区、森林资源质量一般地区以及集体林区更显著；4）气候政策不确定性指数只有超过一定阈值后才会对林业高质量发展产生负向影响。结论: 气候政策不确定性通过降低林业领域的科技人力资源投入从而抑制林业高质量发展水平，且其影响作用具有异质性。应适度提升气候政策间的一致性和连贯性，加强气候政策出台前的信息沟通和执行过程中的信息披露工作，确保林业相关部门能够及时、全面、准确地了解气候政策的具体内容，从而借助市场和技术手段多渠道应对气候政策不确定性所带来的负面影响。

关键词: 气候变化, 气候政策不确定性, 林业高质量发展, 林业科技人力资源

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to investigate the correlation between climate policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of forestry, deeply understand the influence mechanism, quantitatively assess the risks and opportunities brought by climate policy uncertainty to the high-quality development of forestry, and explore effective ways for high-quality development of forestry. Method: The panel data from 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2012 to 2022 was used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the high-quality development of forestry. The entropy method was used to measure the level of high-quality development of forestry in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities). The two-way fixed effect model and the mediation effect model were used to empirically analyze the causal relationship and mechanism between climate policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of forestry. Result: 1) Climate policy uncertainty had a significant negative impact on the level of high-quality development of forestry, and this result remained valid after a series of robustness tests. 2) Climate policy uncertainty inhibited the high-quality development of forestry by reducing the input of scientific and technological human resources in the forestry sector. 3) The negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on high-quality forestry development was more pronounced in eastern regions, areas with scarce forest resources, and regions dominated by collective forests. 4) The negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on the high-quality development of forestry only occurred when the climate policy uncertainty index exceeded the threshold value. conclusion: Climate policy uncertainty inhibits the level of high-quality development of forestry by reducing the input of scientific and technological human resources in the forestry sector, and its impact is heterogeneous. To address this, it is necessary to moderately enhance the consistency and continuity of different climate policies, strengthen information communication before policy introduction and information disclosure during the implementation process, and ensure that forestry-related departments can timely, comprehensively, and accurately understand the specific content of climate policies, thereby using market and technological means to cope with the negative impacts brought by climate policy uncertainty through multi-channels.

Key words: climate change, climate policy uncertainty, high-quality development of forestry, scientific and technological human resources in forestry

中图分类号:

S7-9
F307.2

张少鹏,任阳阳,姜巧悦,贯君,朱洪革. 气候政策不确定性对林业高质量发展的影响[J]. 林业科学, 2026, 62(5): 189-199.

Shaopeng Zhang,Yangyang Ren,Qiaoyue Jiang,Jun Guan,Hongge Zhu. Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on the High-Quality Development of Forestry[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(5): 189-199.

图/表 11

表1

表2

林业高质量发展的综合评价指标体系①"

一级指标 First-level indicator	二级指标 Secondary indicator	指标说明 Indicator description	指标属性 Indicator attribute
林业创新驱动 Forestry innovation-driven	林业新技术研发推广 Development and promotion of new forestry technologies	林业技术研发与推广交流人员 Forestry technology research and development, promotion and exchange personnel	+
林业创新驱动 Forestry innovation-driven	林业新技术支撑力 Supporting force of new forestry technologies	林业技术改造投资完成额 Investment completion amount for forestry technological transformation	+
林业生态建设 Forestry ecological construction	森林覆盖率 Forest coverage rate	森林面积/土地面积 Forest area/land area	+
	生态修复治理 Ecological restoration and governance	生态建设与保护累计投资完成额/林业总投资额 Cumulative investment completion amount in ecological construction and protection/Total investment in forestry	+
	人工造林 Artificial afforestation	人工造林面积 Area of artificial afforestation	+
林业产业发展动能 Development momentum of the forestry industry	林业投资结构 Forestry investment structure	林业固定资产投资完成额/林业总投资额 Completed fixed asset investment in forestry/Total investment in forestry	+
	林业产业发展力水平 Development capacity level of the forestry industry	林业系统单位从业人员年末人数 Number of employees in forestry system units at the end of the year	+
	林业产业开放程度 Degree of openness of the forestry industry	林业利用外资项目数 Number of foreign investment projects utilized in forestry	+
林业经济活力 Forestry economic vitality	林业总产值增长率 Growth rate of total output value of forestry（%）	（当前林业总产值/前一年林业总产值?1）×100% （Current total forestry output value/Previous year's total forestry output value ?1）×100%	+
	林业劳动生产增长率 Growth rate of forestry labor production（%）	（当年的林业劳动生产率/前一年的林业劳动生产率?1）×100% （Forestry labor productivity of the current year/forestry labor productivity of the previous year ? 1） ×100%	+
	林业经济共享水平 Sharing level of the forestry economy（%）	林业系统单位在岗职工年平均工资增长率 Annual average salary growth rate of on-the-job employees in forestry system units	+

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变量Variable	观测值 Observations	均值 Mean value	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Minimum value	最大值 Maximum value
林业高质量发展High-quality development of forestry	341	0.144	0.072	0.023	0.505
气候政策不确定性Climate policy uncertainty	341	1.499	0.377	0.63	2.731
林业科技人力资源投入 Investment in human resources for forestry science and technology	326	0.058	0.067	0.001	0.361
工业化水平Industrialization level	341	0.320	0.088	0.070	0.542
交通基础设施水平Level of transportation infrastructure	341	11.528	1.065	7.027	12.981
研发强度Research and development intensity	341	0.006	0.007	0.000	0.044
人力资本水平Human capital level	341	0.021	0.006	0.009	0.044
财政支持力度Financial support intensity	341	0.291	0.205	0.105	1.354
人口密度Population density	341	457.671	704.725	2.561	3951.476

变量类型 Variable type	变量名称 Variable name	指标说明 Indicator description
被解释变量 Dependent variable	林业高质量发展 High-quality development of forestry	林业高质量发展综合评价指标体系 Comprehensive evaluation index system for high-quality development of forestry
核心解释变量 Core explanatory variable	气候政策不确定性 Climate policy uncertainty	气候政策不确定性 Climate policy uncertainty
中介变量 Mediating variable	林业科技人力资源投入 Investment in human resources for forestry science and technology	林业科技从业人员人数/林业从业人员总数 Number of forestry science and technology practitioners/total number of forestry practitioners
控制变量 Control variable	工业化水平 Industrialization level	工业增加值/地区生产总值 Industrial added value/Regional gross domestic product
	交通基础设施水平 Transportation infrastructure	公路里程数取对数和货运总量取对数 Logarithm of the road mileage and logarithm of the total freight volume
	研发强度 Research and development intensity	R&D经费内部支出/地区生产总值 Internal expenditure on R&D/Regional GDP
	人力资本水平 Human capital level	高等学校在校生人数/总人口 Number of students currently enrolled in higher education institutions/total population
	财政支持力度 Financial support intensity	财政一般预算支出/地区生产总值 General budget expenditure of finance/Regional GDP
	人口密度 Population density	年末常住人/土地面积 Permanent residents at the end of the year/land area

变量Variables	（1）林业高质量发展High-quality development of forestry	（2）林业高质量发展High-quality development of forestry	（3）林业高质量发展High-quality development of forestry
气候政策不确定性 Climate policy uncertainty	?0.030^*** （?2.882）	?0.029^** （?2.486）	?0.040^*** （?3.249）
工业化水平 Industrialization level	—	—	0.170 （1.341）
交通基础设施水平 Transportation infrastructure level	—	—	0.007 （0.338）
人口密度 Population density	—	—	0.001 （1.006）
财政支持力度 Financial support intensity	—	—	?0.186^* （?1.793）
研发强度 R&D intensity	—	—	?0.000 （?1.017）
人力资本水平 Human capital level	—	—	?1.328 （?0.632）
常数项 Constant	0.189^*** （11.863）	0.186^*** （8.125）	?0.166 （?0.429）
省份固定效应 Provincial fixed effect	No	Yes	Yes
年份固定效应 Year fixed effect	No	Yes	Yes
N	341	341	341
Adj-R²	0.021	0.655	0.664

变量 Variables	（1）缩尾处理Tail reduction treatment	（2）替换解释变量Replace the explanatory variable	（3）滞后解释变量Lagging explanatory variable	（4）更改数据集Change the data set
气候政策不确定性 Climate policy uncertainty	?0.031^*** （?3.088）	?0.015^* （?1.947）	?0.022^* （?1.807）	?0.046*** （?3.302）
控制变量 Control variables	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
常数项 Constant	?0.199 （?0.710）	?0.122 （?0.340）	0.014 （0.031）	?0.221 （?0.532）
省份固定 Provincial fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
年份固定 Year fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	341	341	310	310
Adj-R²	0.739	0.684	0.680	0.641

变量 Variables	（1）东部地区 Eastern regions	（2）中部地区 Central regions	（3）西部地区 Western regions
气候政策不确定性 Climate policy uncertainty	?0.046^* （?1.878）	?0.014 （?0.496）	0.011 （0.460）
常数项 Constant	0.477 （0.647）	?1.693 （?1.418）	?0.204 （?0.648）
控制变量 Control variables	Yes	Yes	Yes
省份固定 Provincial fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes
年份固定 Year fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	121	88	132
Adj-R²	0.501	0.707	0.733