数字新质生产力促进山区林业产业高质量发展的作用机制

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240546

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 阐明数字新质生产力助力中国式现代化产业体系建设的时代意义，厘清数字新质生产力促进山区林业产业高质量发展的作用机制，丰富和发展林业新质生产力理论和政策研究内涵，为完善林业高质量发展政策体系提供支撑。方法: 基于2011—2022年浙江省山区26县的面板数据，采用中介效应模型和面板门槛效应模型等方法，探讨数字新质生产力对林业产业高质量发展的影响效应及其作用机制。结果: 1）基准回归分析结果表明，数字新质生产力能够显著提升山区林业产业高质量发展水平。2）作用机制分析结果表明，数字新质生产力可通过生产要素优化配置、林业人力资本积累和技术创新等路径提升林业产业高质量发展水平。3）异质性分析结果表明，数字新质生产力的3个维度中，仅数字劳动者和数字劳动对象对林业产业高质量发展具有显著提升作用，数字劳动资料无显著提升作用；数字新质生产力仅对林业产业结构优化和林业产业结构高级化具有显著提升作用；数字新质生产力可同时提升跨越发展县和生态发展县的林业产业高质量发展水平，相较于生态发展县，跨越发展县的提升效应更好。4）门槛效应分析结果表明，只有当政府保障水平超越门槛值后，才能激发数字新质生产力对林业产业高质量发展的积极作用；当信息化水平越过门槛值时，数字新质生产力对林业产业高质量发展的正向提升作用逐渐减弱。结论: 浙江省山区26县数字新质生产力对林业产业高质量发展具有显著提升作用，生产要素优化配置、林业人力资本积累和技术创新发挥显著中介作用。为充分发挥数字新质生产力对林业产业高质量发展的促进作用，要重点提升对数字化基础设施和专业人才的投入，根据区域差异实施差异化政策，增强生态发展县的数字资源利用效率，确保信息化进程与产业需求相协调；要着力提升政府保障水平，进一步激发数字新质生产力潜力，带动林业产业结构优化和升级，推动形成数字新质生产力赋能林业高质量发展的示范样板。

关键词: 新质生产力, 技术创新, 林业产业, 高质量发展, 生产要素配置

Abstract:

Objective: To clarify the significance of digital new quality productivity in advancing the construction of a modern industrial system with Chinese characteristics, to elucidate the mechanisms by which digital new quality productivity promotes the high-quality development of the forestry industry in mountainous areas, to enrich and advance the theoretical and policy research connotations of forestry new productivity. This provides support for improving the policy framework for high-quality development of the forestry industry. Method: Based on panel data from 26 counties in the mountainous areas of Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2022, this study employs mediation effect models and panel threshold effect models to explore the impact and mechanisms of digital new quality productivity development on the high-quality development of the forestry industry. Result: 1) The baseline regression analysis shows that digital new quality productivity significantly enhances the high-quality development level of the forestry industry in mountainous areas. 2) The mechanism analysis shows that digital new quality productivity promotes the high-quality development level of the forestry industry through pathways such as production factor optimization, forestry human capital accumulation, and technological innovation. 3) The heterogeneity analysis shows that among the three dimensions of digital new quality productivity, only digital labors and digital labor objects significantly enhance the high-quality development lever of forestry industry, while digital labor materials have no significant effect; the development level of digital new quality productivity significantly improves the optimization of forestry industry structure and upgrading of forestry industry structure; digital new quality productivity enhances the high-quality development of forestry industry in both spanning development counties and ecological development counties, with better effects observed in spanning development counties. 4) The threshold effect analysis shows that the positive effect of digital new quality productivity on the high-quality development of forestry industry is only activated when government support levels surpass the threshold value; as informatization levels exceed the threshold, the positive impact of digital new quality productivity on forestry industry high-quality development gradually weakens. Conclusion: The digital new quality productivity significantly enhances the high-quality development of forestry industry in the 26 mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province. Production factor optimization, forestry human capital accumulation, and technological innovation play significant mediating roles. To fully leverage the role of digital new quality productivity in promoting high-quality development of the forestry industry, it is essential to prioritize investments in digital infrastructure and specialized talent, implement differentiated policies based on regional variations, enhance the efficiency of digital resource utilization in ecological development counties, and ensure that informatization aligns with industrial needs. Efforts should focus on improving government support levels to further unlock the potential of digital new quality productivity, driving forestry industry structure optimization and upgrading, and fostering exemplary models of digital new quality productivity empowering high-quality development of forestry industry.

Key words: new quality productivity, technological innovation, forestry industry, high-quality development, production factor optimization

中图分类号:

孔凡斌,陆雨,徐彩瑶. 数字新质生产力促进山区林业产业高质量发展的作用机制[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(11): 160-180.

Fanbin Kong,Yu Lu,Caiyao Xu. Mechanisms of Digital New Quality Productivity in Promoting High-Quality Development of Forestry Industry in Mountainous Areas[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(11): 160-180.

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指标层Indicator layer	一级指标Primary Indicators	指标内涵Indicator connotations	权重Weight
林业产业高质量发展水平 High-quality development level of the forestry industry	林业产业规模 Scale of the forestry industry	林业产业增加值的对数值 Logarithm of the value added by the forestry industry	0.085 7

	林业生产效率 Production efficiency of the forestry industry	林业总产值占林业从业人员比重的对数值 Logarithm of the proportion of total forestry output value to the number of forestry workers	0.048 7

	林业产业结构优化 Optimization of the forestry industry structure	林业第二、三产业产值之和占林业产业总产值的比重Proportion of the combined output value of the secondary and tertiary forestry industries to the total output value of the forestry industry	0.077 7

	林业产业结构合理化 Rationalization of the forestry industry structure	泰尔指数 Theil index	0.078 8

	林业产业结构高级化 Upgrading of the forestry industry structure	林业一产×1+林业二产×2+林业三产×3/林业总产值（Forestry primary industry ×1 + forestry secondary industry × 2 + forestry tertiary industry × 3） / total forestry output value	0.357 4

	森林生态产品价值 Value of forest ecological products	物质产品价值+调节服务价值+文化服务价值 Value of material products + value of regulating services + value of cultural services	0.351 7

指标层Indicator layer	一级指标Primary Indicators	二级指标Secondary Indicators	指标内涵Indicator connotations	权重Weight
数字新质生产力发展水平 Development level of digital new quality productivity	数字劳动者 Digital laborers	劳动者生产率 Productivity of labor	电信业务收入占总人口比重 Proportion of telecommunication business revenue to the total population	0.105 7
		劳动者就业率 Employment rate of labor	信息技术服务就业人数占总人数之比 Proportion of employment in information technology services to the total employment	0.036 7
		劳动者技能 Skills of labor	每万人高校学生数量 The number of college students per 10 000 people	0.069 2
	数字劳动对象 Digital labor objects	新质产业 Emerging industries	三产占比 Proportion of the tertiary industry	0.166 2
		生态环境 Ecological environment	森林覆盖率 Forest coverage rate	0.022 8
		生态环境 Ecological environment	每百人农村用电量 Rural electricity consumption per 100 people	0.006 7
	数字劳动资料 Digital labor materials	数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure	农村宽带普及率 The rural broadband penetration rate	0.116 5
		科技创新 Technological innovation	人均专利授权数量 Patents granted per capita	0.323 3
		数字金融 Digital finance	每万人金融机构数量 The number of financial institutions per 10 000 people	0.150 3
		能源消耗 Energy consumption	能源消耗占GDP比重 Proportion of energy consumption to GDP	0.002 6

变量类型 Variable types	变量名称 Variable name	观测数 Observations	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Minimum	最大值 Maximum
被解释变量 Dependent variable	林业产业高质量发展水平 High-quality development level of the forestry industry	286	0.501 0	0.132 4	0.264 3	0.848 8

核心解释变量 Independent variable	数字新质生产力发展水平 Development level of digital new quality productivity	286	0.262 6	0.091 5	0.078 0	0.697 6

控制变量 Control variables	经济发展水平 Level of economic development	286	9.863 0	1.605 6	3.965 2	13.700 7
	财政支持力度 Degree of fiscal support	286	0.260 9	0.124 8	0.016 2	0.713 3
	对外开放水平 Level of regional openness	286	0.189 4	0.154 6	0.000 1	0.911 0
	城镇化水平 Level of urbanization	286	0.276 6	0.131 4	0.076 7	0.602 2
	基础设施建设 Infrastructure construction	286	0.919 2	0.234 7	0.259 8	1.704 6

机制变量 Mediating variables	生产要素优化配置 Production factor optimization	286	1.369 5	1.061 9	0.232 2	10.105 1
	林业人力资本积累 Forestry human capital accumulation	286	0.117 6	0.027 6	0.063 9	0.224 7
	技术创新 Technological innovation	286	6.440 0	0.925 4	4.007 3	9.137 4
	技术应用水平 Technology application lever	286	12.061 6	0.661 7	10.962 5	14.004 6
	生态治理效能 Ecological governance effectiveness	286	0.754 9	0.409 6	0.063 7	2.419 6

变量Variables	模型（1） Model （1）	模型（2） Model （2）
数字新质生产力发展水平 Development level of digital new quality productivity	0.732 6^*** (0.072 6)	0.261 6^*** (0.060 7)
经济发展水平 Level of economic development		0.007 9^*** (0.002 6)
政府财政支持力度 Degree of government fiscal support		0.370 9^*** (0.078 8)
地区对外开放水平 Level of regional openness		?0.012 3 (0.071 6)
城镇化水平 Level of urbanization		0.376 8^*** (0.055 8)
基础设施建设 Infrastructure construction		0.235 1^*** (0.027 3)
常数项Constant	0.308 6^*** (0.019 9)	?0.060 2 (0.042 5)
个体/年份固定效应 Individual/ year fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes
样本量Sample	286	286
R²	0.281 9	0.634 7

变量 Variables	更换被解释变量测度方法 Replace the measurement method of the dependent variable	增加控制变量 Add control variables	数据缩尾 Data trimming	更换估计方法 Change estimation method
数字新质生产力发展水平 Development level of digital new quality productivity	0.103 9^***	0.263 2^***	0.261 7^***	0.399 0^***
	(0.038 2)	(0.060 7)	(0.060 7)	(0.063 9)
经济发展水平 Level of economic development	0.005 9^***	0.007 5^***	0.007 8^***	0.005 3^*
经济发展水平 Level of economic development	(0.001 6)	(0.002 6)	(0.002 6)	(0.002 9)
政府财政支持力度 Degree of government fiscal support	0.119 0^**	0.381 4^***	0.370 6^***	0.285 9^***
政府财政支持力度 Degree of government fiscal support	(0.049 6)	(0.079 6)	(0.078 8)	(0.0650)
地区对外开放水平 Level of regional openness	?0.085 6^*	?0.010 6	?0.012 1	?0.054 2
地区对外开放水平 Level of regional openness	(0.045 1)	(0.071 7)	(0.071 6)	(0.053 3)
城镇化水平 Level of urbanization	0.220 2^***	0.378 8^***	0.376 2^***	0.362 4^***
城镇化水平 Level of urbanization	(0.035 1)	(0.055 9)	(0.055 8)	(0.052 3)
基础设施建设 Infrastructure construction	0.130 9^***	0.236 8^***	0.234 2^***	0.156 9^***
基础设施建设 Infrastructure construction	(0.017 2)	(0.027 4)	(0.027 3)	(0.027 0)
环境保护支出 Environmental protection expenditure		0.017 7
环境保护支出 Environmental protection expenditure		(0.018 4)
常数项 Constant	0.034 8	?0.275 5	?0.058 9	0.034 9
常数项 Constant	(0.026 8)	(0.227 3)	(0.042 5)	(0.045 5)
个体/时间固定效应 Individual/ time fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
样本量Sample	286	286	286	286
R²	0.520 5	0.636 0	0.633 8	0.617 9