林业数智化对林业新质生产力的影响机制

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240573

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 在新一轮数智化革命与林业发展加速融合的背景下，探究林业数智化对林业新质生产力的影响机制，为林业数智化推动林业新质生产力发展提供科学依据。方法: 基于2011—2022年中国29个省份面板数据，构建林业数智化和林业新质生产力评价指标体系，采用基于相对熵距离的动态改进TOPSIS法测度其发展水平，运用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型、门槛效应模型和空间杜宾模型等方法分析林业数智化对林业新质生产力的影响机制。结果: 1）中国29个省份的林业新质生产力和林业数智化水平呈波动上升趋势，且区域差异明显；2）林业数智化能够显著促进林业新质生产力发展，林业数智化对林业新质生产力发展的促进作用存在基于林业产业结构升级的门槛效应；3）林业数智化可通过推动林业产业结构升级、生产要素配置创新和林业生态效益提升间接促进林业新质生产力发展；4）林业数智化对林业新质生产力的正向影响在东部地区、林业数智化高水平地区和林业加工制造型地区更为显著；5）林业新质生产力存在显著的空间集聚特征，林业数智化对林业新质生产力存在正向的空间溢出效应。结论: 中国29个省份林业数智化对林业新质生产力发展具有显著的促进作用。需加强林业技术研发创新，加大林业数智化投入和专业人才培养力度，促进林业生产要素升级与产业结构优化，提升生态效益；需强化邻近地区林业产业合作交流，推动区域协同发展；同时，政策制定需结合区域特征、数智化水平和产业结构差异，实施针对性措施，以林业数智化赋能林业新质生产力发展。

关键词: 林业新质生产力, 林业数智化, 林业产业结构升级, 机制检验

Abstract:

Objective: Against the backdrop of accelerating integration between the new wave of digital intelligence revolution and forestry development, this study investigates the impact mechanisms of forestry digitalization and intellectualization on forestry new quality productive forces, aiming to offer a scientific basis for advancing forestry development through digital intelligence. Method: Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022, the evaluation indicator system of forestry digitalization and intellectualization and forestry new quality productive forces were constructed and their development levels were measured by the dynamically improved TOPSIS method based on relative entropy distance. Two-way fixed-effects model, mediated-effects model, threshold-effects model and spatial Durbin model were used to analyze the impact mechanisms of forestry digitalization and intellectualization on forestry new quality productive forces. Result: 1) Forestry new quality productive forces and digital intelligence levels in China’s 29 provinces demonstrated fluctuating upward trend with pronounced regional disparities. 2) Forestry digitalization and intellectualization can significantly contribute to the development of forestry new quality productive forces; there is a threshold effect based on the upgrading of forestry industry structure for the promotion of forestry new quality productive forces by forestry digitalization and intellectualization. 3) Forestry digitalization and intellectualization can indirectly promote the development of forestry new quality productive forces by promoting the upgrading of forestry industry structure, the innovation of production factor allocation and the enhancement of forestry ecological efficiency. 4) The positive impact of forestry digitalization and intellectualization on new quality productive forces is more pronounced in eastern region, high-level region of forestry digitalization and intellectualization, and forestry processing-manufacturing region. 5) Forestry new quality productivity has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and forestry digitalization and intellectualization demonstrates positive spatial spillover effects on forestry new quality productivity. Conclusion: Forestry digitalization and intellectualization in China’s 29 provinces has significantly contributed to the development of forestry new quality productive forces. It is necessary to strengthen technological R&D and innovation, increase forestry digitalization and intellectualization investment and professional personnel training, promote the upgrading of forestry production factors and optimization of industrial structure, and enhance ecological efficiency; strengthen the forestry industry cooperation and exchange in neighboring regions, and promote regional synergistic development. Concurrently, policy formulation must account for regional characteristics, the level of digital intelligence and industrial structure disparities to implement tailored interventions, leveraging forestry digitalization and intellectualization to empower the development of new quality productive forces.

Key words: forestry new quality productive forces, forestry digitalization and intellectualization, the upgrading of forestry industry structure, mechanism testing

中图分类号:

S7-9
F326.2

李洪敏,张雨晨,米红,马国勇. 林业数智化对林业新质生产力的影响机制[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(11): 181-199.

Hongmin Li,Yuchen Zhang,Hong Mi,Guoyong Ma. Impact Mechanisms of Forestry Digitalization and Intellectualization on Forestry New Quality Productive Forces[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(11): 181-199.

图/表 17

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林业新质生产力评价指标体系"

目标层 Target level	一级指标 Primary index	二级指标 Secondary index	三级指标 Tertiary index	指标释义 Interpretation of indicators	属性 Attributes
林业新质生产力 Forestry new quality productive forces	林业新质劳动者 New quality forestry workforce	劳动者素质 Quality of workers	专业素质 Professional quality	林业专业技术人员数量与从业人数之比 Number of forestry professional technicians as a proportion of the number of employees	＋
		劳动者素质 Quality of workers	文化素质 Educational quality	林业站从业人员大专以上学历人员数量 Specificity of junior college or above for forestry station staff at the basic level	＋
		劳动生产率 Labor productivity	林业从业人员平均产值 Average value of production of forest workers	林业总产值/林业从业人员数量 Gross forestry output/number of forestry employees	＋
		劳动生产率 Labor productivity	林业系统职工年均工资 Average annual wages in the forestry system employees	林业系统在岗职工年平均工资 Average number of wages of forestry employees	＋
	林业新质劳动资料 New quality forestry labor resources	物质生产资料 Material production resources	传统基础设施 Traditional infrastructure	自然保护区面积与行政区域面积之比 Share of nature reserves in administrative regions	＋
			传统基础设施 Traditional infrastructure	各地区林业站数量 Number of district forestry stations	＋
			数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure	林业站计算机装备数量 Number of forestry stations equipped with computers	＋
			能源消耗 Energy consumption	地区能源消费总量×（地区林业产业生产总值/地区生产总值） Total regional energy consumption × (regional forest industry GDP/regional GDP)	?
		无形生产资料 Intangible production resources	数字化发展 Digital development	农村数字普惠金融发展指数 Rural digital inclusive finance development index	＋
			数字化发展 Digital development	与数字经济相关的关键词词频 Number of word frequencies for keywords related to the digital economy	＋
			科技创新 Technological innovation	林草科技投入额 Forestry and grassland science and technology inputs	＋
	林业新质劳动对象New quality forestry labor targets	生态保护 Ecological protection	林业生态服务 Forestry ecosystem services	林业生态服务产值 Value of forestry ecosystem services	＋
		生态保护 Ecological protection	林业资源 Forestry resources	森林覆盖率 Rate of forest cover	＋
		产业发展 Industrial development	新质产业 New quality industry	林业旅游休闲康养产值 Forestry tourism and recreation output	＋
			林业产业结构优化 Optimization of the forestry industry structure	林业第三产业与第二产业产值之比 Ratio of tertiary to secondary forestry production value	＋
			地区产业发展 Regional industrial development	林业产值占地区生产总值比重 Share of forestry output in GDP	＋

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目标层 Target level	一级指标 Primary index	二级指标 Secondary index	指标释义 Interpretation of indicators	属性Attributes
林业数智化Forestry digitalization and intellectualization	数智化产业组织 Digital intelligence industry	产业转型升级 Industrial transformation and upgrading	林业第三产业占生产总值之比 Ratio of forestry tertiary sector to GDP	＋
		专业技术产业 Specialized technology industry	林业专业技术服务产值 Value of forestry professional and technical services	＋
		数字产业 Digital industry	地区淘宝村数量 Number of Taobao villages in the region	＋
	数智化科技创新 Digital intelligence technology and innovation	科技教育 Science and technology education	林业科技教育投资 Investment in forestry science and technology education	＋
		专业技术人员 Specialized technology staff	林业专业技术人员数量 Number of forestry professional technicians	＋
		绿色创新 Green innovation	绿色专利授权数量 Number of green patents granted	＋
	数智化建设投入 Building digital intelligence	数字化建设 Digital construction	农村宽带覆盖率 Rural broadband coverage	＋
			光纤密度 Optical fiber density	＋
			林业站通讯设备装备数量 Number of forestry stations equipped with communications equipment	＋
		信息化建设 Information construction	林业信息化建设投入 Forestry information construction investment	＋

变量名称 Variables name	样本量 Sample size	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最大值 Max.	最小值 Min.
林业新质生产力 Forestry new quality productive forces	348	0.362	0.223	0.899	0.039
林业数智化 Forestry digitalization and intellectualization	348	0.340	0.221	0.987	0.011
林业产业结构升级 The upgrading of forestry industrial structure	348	1.690	0.276	2.355	1.018
生产要素配置创新 The innovation of production factor allocation	348	0.347	0.222	0.971	0.032
林业生态效益提升 The enhancement of forestry ecological efficiency	348	48.854	24.980	129.061	9.631
经济发展水平 Level of economic development	348	10.765	0.474	12.142	9.464
对外开放程度 Opening-up degree	348	0.264	0.289	1.464	0.008
城镇化水平 Level of urbanization	348	0.581	0.118	0.896	0.338
财政支林力度 Financial support for forests	348	440.612	850.673	5468.357	14.666

变量 Variables	被解释变量：林业新质生产力 Dependent variable: forestry new quality productive forces
变量 Variables	（1）	（2）	（3）
林业数智化 Forestry digitalization and intellectualization	0.415^*** (0.043)	0.378^*** (0.046)	0.370^*** (0.043)
经济发展水平 Level of economic development		0.224^*** (0.055)	0.608^*** (0.077)
对外开放程度 Opening-up degree		0.329^*** (0.064)	0.136^* (0.082)
城镇化水平 Level of urbanization		?1.072^*** (0.325)	?0.267 (0.416)
财政支林力度 Financial support for forests		0.000 (0.000)	0.000 (0.000)
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	否No	否No	是Yes
观测值 Observations	348	348	348
R²	0.482	0.323	0.364

变量 Variables	缩尾处理 Shrink tail treatment	变量滞后一期 Variables lagged by one period
林业数智化 Forestry digitalization and intellectualization	0.366^*** (0.044)	0.117^** (0.051)
经济发展水平 Level of economic development	0.597^*** (0.080)	0.711^*** (0.091)
对外开放程度 Opening-up degree	0.110 (0.085)	0.151^* (0.090)
城镇化水平 Level of urbanization	?0.201 (0.421)	?0.414 (0.460)
财政支林力度 Financial support for forests	0.000 (0.000)	0.000^** (0.000)
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes
观测值 Observations	348	348
R²	0.352	0.266

变量 Variables	林业新质生产力 Forestry new quality productive forces
变量 Variables	系数Ratio
林业数智化 Forestry digitalization and intellectualization	0.875^*** (0.137)
不可识别检验 Non-identifiability test	16.98^***
弱工具变量检验 Weak instrumental variables test	290.108^***