林业科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 25-36.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20210840
• 前沿与重点:典型树种空间分布的气候变化响应与适应 • 上一篇 下一篇
张淑宁1,陈俊兴1,敖敦1,红梅1,张雅茜1,包福海1,王淋2,乌云塔娜2,白玉娥1,包文泉1,*()
收稿日期:
2021-11-16
出版日期:
2023-12-25
发布日期:
2024-01-08
通讯作者:
包文泉
E-mail:48369742@qq.com
基金资助:
Shuning Zhang1,Junxing Chen1,Dun Ao1,Mei Hong1,Yaqian Zhang1,Fuhai Bao1,Lin Wang2,Tana Wuyun2,Yu’e Bai1,Wenquan Bao1,*()
Received:
2021-11-16
Online:
2023-12-25
Published:
2024-01-08
Contact:
Wenquan Bao
E-mail:48369742@qq.com
摘要:
目的: 预测我国长柄扁桃的适生区及其对气候变化的响应,为长柄扁桃资源的保护与人工栽植提供科学依据。方法: 利用R语言和ArcGIS筛选出长柄扁桃148个分布数据和34个环境因子;调用ENMeval程序包,优化最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt)参数;基于Pearson相关分析和VIF方差膨胀因子分析,完成建模所需环境因子的筛选,并利用刀切法评估长柄扁桃适生区的主导环境因子;利用优化后的模型获取长柄扁桃当前适生区的地理分布,推测末次间冰期、末次盛冰期和全新世中期的潜在适生区,分析其历史潜在地理分布变化,并依据IPCC第6次气候模型,预测不同气候情景下长柄扁桃未来分布区的变化趋势。结果: 模型优化结果显示,当模型特征组合为线性、二次型、片段化、乘积型与阈值性特征而且调控倍率为1.5时,MaxEnt模型的训练遗漏率和复杂度低,拟合度最佳,受试者工作特性曲线的AUC值为0.967,表明所建模型的预测结果准确、可靠;据刀切法评估结果,最暖季度降水量、降水量变异系数、气温变异系数、年均气温和表层土壤盐基饱和度是影响长柄扁桃分布的主导环境因子;模型预测结果显示,当前我国长柄扁桃的适生区主要分布于内蒙古高原和黄土高原地区;历史、当前和未来适生区变化的分析表明,长柄扁桃对气候变化的响应较为敏感;在未来不同气候情景下,预测长柄扁桃适生区将会缩减,具有向中高纬度和高海拔地区迁移的趋势,尤其在温室气体高排放浓度下更敏感,迁移距离更大。结论: 优化后的MaxEnt模型可准确预测长柄扁桃的潜在地理分布区;气温和降水是最有可能造成长柄扁桃分布区迁移的环境因子;未来气候变暖将会引起长柄扁桃分布区的迁移。在未来气候变暖背景下,长柄扁桃适生区趋于缩减,减少区主要为低纬度和低海拔区,而在中高纬度和高海拔区(内蒙古呼和浩特、鄂尔多斯、锡林郭勒,陕西延安)有新增适生区出现。
中图分类号:
张淑宁,陈俊兴,敖敦,红梅,张雅茜,包福海,王淋,乌云塔娜,白玉娥,包文泉. 气候变化背景下我国长柄扁桃潜在适生区预测[J]. 林业科学, 2023, 59(12): 25-36.
Shuning Zhang,Junxing Chen,Dun Ao,Mei Hong,Yaqian Zhang,Fuhai Bao,Lin Wang,Tana Wuyun,Yu’e Bai,Wenquan Bao. Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Amygdalus pedunculata in China under Climate Change[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(12): 25-36.
表1
预测长柄扁桃地理分布的环境因子"
类型 Type | 因子 Variables | 描述 Description | 单位 Units |
气候生物因子 Bio climatic variables | Bio1 | 年平均气温Annual mean temperature | ℃ |
Bio4 | 气温变异系数Temperature seasonality | CV | |
Bio5 | 最热月最高温Max temperature of warmest month | ℃ | |
Bio6 | 最冷月最低温Min temperature of coldest month | ℃ | |
Bio7 | 气温年较差Temperature annual range | ℃ | |
Bio12 | 年降水量Annual precipitation | mm | |
Bio15 | 降水量变异系数Variation coefficient of precipitation | % | |
Bio18 | 最暖季度降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter | mm | |
土壤因子 Top soil variables | T-SAND | 表层土壤沙砾百分比Percentage sand in the topsoil | %wt |
T-OC | 土壤有机碳百分比Percentage of organic carbon in topsoil | %wt | |
T-PH-H2O | 表层土壤pH值pH-value of topsoil(H2O) | log (H+) | |
T-BS | 表层土壤盐基饱和度The base saturation in topsoil | % | |
地形因子Terrain | ELEV | 海拔Elevation | m |
表2
长柄扁桃不同时期的适生区面积①"
气候变化情景 Climate change scenarios | 高度适生区 Most suitable area/hm2 | 一般适生区 Suitable area/hm2 | 较不适生区 Marginally unsuitable area/hm2 | 最不适生区 Unsuitable area/hm2 | 总适生区 Total suitable area (%) | |
末次间冰期 Last inter glacial | 620 431.9 | 655 532.6 | 2179 945 | 6 154 269 | 1 275 964.6 | |
末次盛冰期Last glacial maximum | 295 434 | 158 611.1 | 498 993.1 | 8 656 753 | 454 045.1 | |
全新中世纪Mid holocene | 98 385.4 | 168 535.4 | 814 250 | 8 529 008 | 266 920.8 | |
当前Current | 219 166.7 | 228 107.6 | 779 600.7 | 8 051 493 | 447 274.3 | |
SSP126 | 2050S | 278 333.3 | 357 621.5 | 886 406.3 | 6 154 269 | 635 954.8 |
2090S | 191 579.9 | 247 829.9 | 866 284.7 | 8 656 753 | 439 409.8 | |
SSP245 | 2050S | 197 534.7 | 360 451.4 | 846 319.4 | 8 529 008 | 197 571.2 |
2090S | 150 225.7 | 195 607.6 | 989 652.8 | 8 051 493 | 345 833.3 | |
SSP585 | 2050S | 187 256.9 | 253 576.4 | 1 078 611 | 7 756 007 | 440 833.3 |
2090S | 176 388.9 | 269 878.5 | 1 044 514 | 7 787 587 | 446 267.4 |
表3
长柄扁桃不同时期适生区的变化①"
项目 Item | 末次间冰期 Last inter glacial | 末次盛冰期 Last glacial maximum | 全新世中期 Mid holocene | 2050s | 2090s | |||||
SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | |||||
保留率 Unchange rate (%) | 69.19 | 20.01 | 41.37 | 79.63 | 70.78 | 63.65 | 89.25 | 72.67 | 71.00 | |
丧失率 Contraction rate (%) | 215.27 | 81.44 | 18.16 | 20.56 | 29.69 | 36.38 | 53.83 | 52.60 | 27.54 | |
新增率 Expansion rate (%) | 33.16 | 39.41 | 58.68 | 63.32 | 53.83 | 34.50 | 9.15 | 4.33 | 28.17 |
表4
历史、当前和未来不同气候情景下长柄扁桃适生区质心的迁移距离①"
时期 Period | 末次间冰期 Last inter glacial | 末次盛冰期 Last glacial maximum | 全新世中期 Mid holocene | 当前 Current | 2050s | 2090s | |||||
SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | ||||||
末次盛冰期 Last glacial maximum | 693 888 | ||||||||||
全新世中期Mid holocene | 281 946 | 547 357 | |||||||||
当前Current | 687 602 | 305 587 | 440 539 | ||||||||
SSP126-2050s | 723 126 | 382 763 | 460 460 | 78 638 | |||||||
SSP245-2050s | 703 742 | 423 268 | 433 321 | 118 648 | 53 311 | ||||||
SSP585-2050s | 405 111 | 486 170 | 174 783 | 295 097 | 297 781 | 264 004 | |||||
SSP126-2090s | 609 924 | 412 027 | 339 118 | 142 269 | 126 410 | 94 336 | 171 905 | ||||
SSP245-2090s | 600 745 | 392 373 | 333 615 | 131 199 | 127 372 | 103 526 | 171 422 | 20 985 | |||
SSP585-2090s | 444 933 | 535 516 | 163 687 | 340 468 | 336 565 | 298 300 | 50 016 | 210 246 | 213 056 | 0 |
表5
参与建模的环境因子贡献率及置换重要值"
因子 Variables | 贡献率 Percentage contribution (%) | 置换重要值 Permutation importance |
最暖季度降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter | 22.7 | 22.3 |
降水量变异系数Variation coefficient of precipitation | 20.3 | 24.1 |
气温变异系数Temperature seasonality | 16.3 | 20 |
年均气温Annual mean temperature | 11.2 | 3.6 |
表层土壤盐基饱和度The base saturation in topsoil | 8.4 | 4.9 |
年降水量Annual precipitation | 5 | 4.4 |
气温年较差Temperature annual range | 4 | 7.9 |
表层土壤沙砾百分比Percentage sand in the topsoil | 2.6 | 1.6 |
最热月最高温Max temperature of warmest month | 2.1 | 9.1 |
最冷月最低温Min temperature of coldest month | 2 | 1.1 |
土壤有机碳百分比Percentage of organic carbon in topsoil | 0.4 | 0.6 |
表层土壤pH值pH-value of topsoil(H2O) | 0.1 | 0.2 |
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