基于MaxEnt模型的天然元宝枫在我国的适生区区划及合理性分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20210823

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 探究天然元宝枫在我国的适生区区划及生态阈值，并通过实地考察样本点对区划结果进行合理性分析，为天然元宝枫人工栽培合理选址、天然种质资源调查和保护、优良品种选育提供理论依据。方法: 选择经筛选得到的138个天然元宝枫代表性样本点数据，结合15个生态因子，基于MaxEnt模型，采用刀切法分析影响天然元宝枫分布的主要生态因子及阈值范围，结合GIS模拟天然元宝枫在我国的适生区区划，运用受试者工作特征曲线评估模型结果，评估后实地考察样本点，对区划结果进行合理性分析。结果: 1）天然元宝枫适生区区划结果的ROC曲线训练集和测试集AUC分别为0.968和0.947；2）影响天然元宝枫适生区范围的主要生态因子为最干季平均温度、最湿季降水量、海拔、最干季降水量和年平均温度，累计贡献率达82.80%，土壤因子对天然元宝枫的分布影响较小；天然元宝枫适宜在最干季平均温度?12.50~3.82 ℃、最湿季降水量230~547 mm、海拔0~1 465 m、最干季降水量5~53 mm和年平均温度4.04~15.41 ℃的区域生长；3）天然元宝枫的主要适生区跨越34°—46°N，108°—126°E，集中分布在内蒙古、陕西、河北、吉林、山西、辽宁、山东、河南和甘肃等省（区、市），面积约1 642 247 km²，占全国陆地总面积的17.11%，其中，高适生区主要位于河北、辽宁和山东，面积约277 792 km²，占全国适生区总面积的16.92%；4）通过实地考察样本点对天然元宝枫适生区区划合理性进行分析，天然元宝枫的总体区划精度为0.82，Kappa系数为0.61。结论: 天然元宝枫适生区广泛分布在我国华北地区和东北、西北的部分地区，生物气候因子和海拔因子是天然元宝枫在我国境内生长的主要限制生态因子。本研究模拟的天然元宝枫适生区区划结果能够较好反映天然元宝枫的空间分布特征，为充分利用天然元宝枫资源、实现元宝枫经济价值最大化提供理论依据。

关键词: 天然元宝枫, 最大熵模型, 适生区, 生态阈值

Abstract:

Objective: This paper probes into the suitable area zoning and ecological threshold of natural Acer truncatum, and analyzes the rationality of the zoning results through field investigation of the sample points, providing theoretical basis for the reasonable location of artificial cultivation of natural Acer truncatum, the investigation and protection of natural germplasm resources, and the selection and breeding of excellent varieties. Method: Based on 138 selected representative sample points, combined with 15 ecological factors, the MaxEnt model was applied to analyze the main ecological factors and threshold range affecting the distribution of natural Acer truncatum by knife cutting method. Then, the model results were evaluated by using the GIS simulation of the suitable area division in China and the subject work characteristic curve. After the evaluation, the sample points were investigated on the spot, and the rationality analysis was carried out on the zoning results. Result: 1) The ROC curve training set and test set AUC values of the regionalization results of the suitable areas of natural Acer truncatum were 0.968 and 0.947. 2) The main ecological factors affecting the range of suitable areas of the natural Acer truncatum were average temperature in the driest season, precipitation in the wettest season, altitude, precipitation in the driest season and average annual temperature, with a cumulative contribution rate of 82.80%, and soil factors had little effect on the distribution of the natural Acer truncatum. It is suitable to grow in areas with average temperature of ?12.50–3.82 ℃ in the driest season, precipitation of 230–547 mm in the wettest season, altitude of 0–1 465 m, precipitation of 5–53 mm in the driest season and average annual temperature of 4.04–15.41 ℃. 3) The main habitat area of the natural Acer truncatum spans 34°—46°N, 108°—126°E, and concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Hebei, Jilin, Shanxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Gansu and other provinces（autonomous regionsand municipalities）, with an area of about 1 642 247 km², accounting for 17.11% of the total land area of China. Among them, the high suitability areas are mainly located in Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong, with an area of 277 792 km², accounting for 16.92% of the total suitability areas in China. 4) The rationality of regionalization of suitable area was analyzed through field investigation of sample points. The overall regionalization accuracy of natural Acer truncatum was 0.82, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.61. Conclusion: The suitable areas of the natural Acer truncatum are widely distributed in north China and parts of northeast and northwest China. Bioclimatic factors and altitude factors are the main limiting ecological factors for the growth of the natural Acer truncatum in China. In this study, the simulated zoning results of the suitable area of the natural Acer truncatum can reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of the natural Acer truncatum, and provide a theoretical basis for making full use of the natural resources and maximizing the economic value of the natural Acer truncatum.

Key words: Acer truncatum, MaxEnt, suitable habitat, ecological threshold

中图分类号:

刘怡彤,郭慧,裴顺祥,吴莎,吴迪,辛学兵. 基于MaxEnt模型的天然元宝枫在我国的适生区区划及合理性分析[J]. 林业科学, 2023, 59(12): 13-24.

Yitong Liu,Hui Guo,Shunxiang Pei,Sha Wu,Di Wu,Xuebing Xin. Regionalization and Rationality Analysis of Natural Acer truncatum in China Based on MaxEnt Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(12): 13-24.

图/表 8

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表4

天然元宝枫实地考察样本点概况"

编号 Code	地点 Location	纬度 Latitude/ °N	经度 Longitude/ ° E	海拔 Elevation/ m	适生等级 Suitable level	生境 Habitat	人为干扰 Human disturbances	备注 Remarks
1	内蒙古代钦塔拉 Daiqintala, Inner Mongolia	45.22	121.67	224	中低适生区交汇处 Moderate and marginal area intersection	草地，疏林 Grassland, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
2	内蒙古乌旦塔拉 Wudantala, Inner Mongolia	43.02	122.72	220	高适生区 Favorable area	沙地，疏林 Sand, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
3	内蒙古松树山 Songshushan, Inner Mongolia	42.50	119.25	648	高适生区 Favorable area	沙地，疏林 Sand, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
4	内蒙古阿尔山 Arshan, Inner Mongolia	47.21	120.35	1 210	非适生区 Unsuitable area	—	—	未发现 Not found
5	内蒙古阿鲁科尔沁 Alukeerqin, Inner Mongolia	44.31	119.60	704	低适生区 Marginal area	—	—	未发现 Not found
6	内蒙古正蓝旗 Zhenglanqi, Inner Mongolia	43.09	116.06	1 294	非适生区 Unsuitable area	—	—	未发现 Not found
7	内蒙古科右前旗 Keyou Qianqi, Inner Mongolia	46.35	120.69	702	非适生区 Unsuitable area	—	—	未发现 Not found
8	内蒙古和林格尔 Helingeer, Inner Mongolia	40.48	111.81	1 152	低适生区 Marginal area	—	—	未发现 Not found
9	内蒙古察哈尔右翼中旗 ChahaerYouyizhongqi, Inner Mongolia	41.14	112.53	1 939	非适生区 Unsuitable area	—	—	未发现 Not found
10	内蒙古阿拉善左旗 Alxa Zuoqi, Inner Mongolia	38.88	105.68	1 540	非适生区 Unsuitable area	—	—	人工栽培 Cultivation
11	辽宁彰武 Zhangwu, Liaoning	42.83	122.48	253	高适生区 Favorable area	沙地，疏林 Sand, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
12	辽宁法库 Faku, Liaoning	42.65	123.75	113	高中适生区交汇处 Favorable and moderate confluence	沙地，疏林 Sand, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
13	辽宁葫芦岛 Huludao, Liaoning	40.8	119.9	562	高适生区 Favorable area	路边，疏林 Sand, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
14	河北平泉 Pingquan, Hebei	40.84	118.77	620	高适生区 Favorable area	山地，疏林 Sand, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
15	河北雾灵山 Wulingshan, Hebei	40.56	117.51	1 260	高适生区 Favorable area	山地，疏林 Hilly area, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
16	北京八达岭 Badaling, Beijing	40.34	116.00	600	高适生区 Favorable area	路边，疏林 Wayside, sparse forest	极强 Extremely strong	人工栽培 Cultivation
17	北京小龙门 Xiaolongmen, Beijing	39.97	115.45	1 120	高适生区 Favorable area	山地，疏林 Hilly area, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
18	山东郯城 Tancheng, Shandong	34.71	118.49	49	中适生区 Moderate area	—	—	未发现 Not found
19	山东泰山 Taishan, Shandong	36.27	117.10	305	高适生区 Favorable area	路边，疏林 Wayside, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
20	山东济宁 Jining, Shandong	35.77	117.7	498	高适生区 Favorable area	路边，疏林 Wayside, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
21	山西中条山 Zhongtiaoshan, Shanxi	35.42	111.49	790	高适生区 Favorable area	山地，疏林 Hilly area, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
22	山西石膏山 Shigaoshan, Shanxi	36.50	111.83	802	高适生区 Favorable area	山地，疏林 Hilly area, sparse forest	弱 Weak	野生 Wild
23	陕西华阴 Huayin, Shaanxi	34.53	110.08	353	高中适生区交汇处 Favorable and moderate area intersection	路边，疏林 Wayside, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
24	陕西永寿 Yongshou, Shaanxi	34.87	108.18	1 005	高中适生区交汇处 Favorable and moderate area intersection	路边，疏林 Wayside, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
25	宁夏六盘山 Liupanshan, Ningxia	35.49	106.27	1 660	低适生区 Marginal area	—	—	未发现 Not found
26	河南济源 Jiyuan, Henan	35.15	112.12	605	高适生区 Favorable area	路边，疏林 Wayside, sparse forest	中度 Moderate	野生 Wild
27	四川九寨沟 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan	33.27	103.92	2 060	非适生区 Unsuitable area	路边，疏林 Wayside, sparse forest	极强 Extremely strong	人工栽培 Cultivation
28	湖北大洪山 Dahongshan, Hubei	31.52	112.81	721	非适生区 Unsuitable area	山地，疏林 Hilly area, sparse forest	强 Strong	人工栽培 Cultivation

表4

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因子类型 Factor type	生态因子 Ecological factor	单位 Unit
气候因子 Climate factor	年平均温度 Annual mean temperature	℃
	昼夜温差月均值 Mean diurnal range(mean of monthly (max.temp. -min.temp.)	℃
	等温性 Isothermality
	气温季节性变化标准差 Temperature seasonality
	最暖月最高温度 Max temperature of warmest month	℃
	最冷月最低温度 Min temperature of coldest month	℃
	年均温度变化范围 Temperature annual range	℃
	最湿季平均温度 Mean temperature of wettest quarter	℃
	最干季平均温度 Mean temperature of driest quarter	℃
	最暖季平均温度 Mean temperature of warmest quarter	℃
	最冷季平均温度 Mean temperature of coldest quarter	℃
	年降水量 Annual precipitation	mm
	最湿月降水量 Precipitation of wettest month	mm
	最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month	mm
	降水量季节性变异系数 Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation)
	最湿季降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter	mm
	最干季降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter	mm
	最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter	mm
	最冷季降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter	mm
地形因子 Terrain factor	海拔 Elevation	m
	坡度 Slope	°
	坡向 Aspect
土壤因子 Soil factor	表层土壤砂粒含量 Topsoil sand fraction	%
	表层土壤黏粒含量 Topsoil clay fraction	%
	表层土壤粉粒含量 Topsoil silt fraction	%
	表层土壤有机碳含量 Topsoil organic carbon	%
	表层土壤阳离子交换量 Topsoil cation exchange capacity	cmol?kg^?1
	表层土壤酸碱度 Topsoil pH
	表层土壤盐基饱和度 Topsoil base saturation	%
	土壤有效含水量 Topsoil available water capacity	%
	土壤参考深度 Refercence soil depth

生态因子 Ecological factor	模型贡献率 Contribution rate of model(%)
最干季平均温度 Mean temperature of driest quarter	27.6
最湿季降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter	23.7
海拔 Elevation	18.6
最干季降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter	7.5
年平均温度 Annual mean temperature	5.4
坡度 Slope	4.0
表层土壤酸碱度Topsoil pH	3.6
坡向 Aspect	2.5
土壤有效含水量 Topsoil available water capacity	1.4
最暖季平均温度 Mean temperature of warmest quarter	1.3
表层土壤阳离子交换量 Topsoil cation exchange capacity	1.3
表层土壤砂粒含量 Topsoil sand fraction	1.2
表层土壤有机碳含量 Topsoil organic carbon	1.0
昼夜温差月均值 Mean diurnal range(mean of monthly (max.temp.-min.temp.)	0.5
最暖月最高温度 Max temperature of warmest month	0.4

省（区、市） Province（autonomous regions and municipalities）	高适生区 Favorable area/km²	中适生区 Moderate area /km²	低适生区 Marginal area /km²	适生区总面积 Total suitable area /km²	占全国适生区比 Proportion of suitable areas in China (%)
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	15 533	70 319	152 477	238 329	14.51
河北Hebei	65 419	65 979	56 270	187 669	11.43
陕西Shaanxi	23 242	87 830	78 481	189 553	11.54
吉林Jilin	2 964	33 512	117 868	154 344	9.40
山西Shanxi	27 115	68 839	56 083	152 037	9.26
山东Shandong	45 286	62 719	42 124	150 129	9.14
辽宁Liaoning	60 476	64 350	29 332	154 157	9.39
河南Henan	23 344	41 863	57 495	122 702	7.47
黑龙江Heilongjiang	5	2 159	81 983	84 147	5.12
甘肃Gansu	273	24 946	59 035	84 253	5.13
四川Sichuan	0	390	37 559	37 949	2.31
湖北Hubei	0	365	24 521	24 886	1.52
北京Beijing	12 509	3 780	963	17 252	1.05
宁夏Ningxia	0	178	11 712	11 889	0.72
天津Tianjin	1 599	4 566	5 495	11 660	0.71
江苏Jiangsu	21	2 048	9 346	11 416	0.70
安徽Anhui	6	1 196	7 916	9 117	0.56
重庆Chongqing	0	8	748	756	0.05
全国适生区面积Total suitable area /km²	277 792	535 048	829 407	1 642 247	100

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