关键词: 橡胶树白根病, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 主导环境因子, 风险区

Abstract:

Objective: Based on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt),the risk of rubber tree root disease in China under the background of future climate change was predicted,and the major environmental factors affecting the occurance of the disease were analyzed. This study is of great significance to the quarantine and control decision of rubber tree white root in China. Method: This study was based on previous studies on the occurrence and prevalence of white root disease of rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis). We selected the geographical distributive information and primary environmental factors influencing the occurrence of this disease with global bioclimatic data and disaster data in baseline (1970-2000),and constructed a correlation model between the occurrence of this disease and primary environmental factors by using MaxEnt model and geographic information system (GIS). Based on five global climate models (GCMs) provided by the coupled model inter comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5),integrated with equal weight set average method,the climate prediction data of 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080) for representative concentration pathway (RCP)2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were obtained. According to the established model,we predicted baseline and future (2050s and 2070s) risk area distribution of this disease,analyzed the influence of climate change on risk area distribution of this disease,and identified prevention and management key and sensitive areas in the future. Result: The average area under curve (AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) from model training and testing data was 0.965 and 0.942. The results of simulation and prediction were basically consistent with the historical disaster situation. The major environmental factors with higher contribution rate were variation range of annual mean temperature,precipitation in the wettest month,monthly mean difference in temperature between day and night,mean temperature in the coldest quarter,the standard deviation of temperature seasonal variation,and the lowest temperature in the coldest month. During the baseline,the high risk areas of this disease were mainly concentrated in Hainan Island,southwest and southeast parts of Guangdong Province,south and southeast parts of Yunnan Province. From baseline to future,the centroid position of the risk area of this disease moved to the northeast in China. The proportion of the high risk areas of this disease would increase. Conclusion: The risk area of rubber tree white root disease is significantly affected by temperature and precipitation. The key areas for prevention and management of this disease are Hainan Island,south parts of Yunnan province,southwest parts of Guangdong province. The sensitive areas are part of southeast Guangxi province,part of eastern Guangdong province,part of southern Fujian province in China. The study could provide a reference for the inspection and quarantine of this disease in China.

Key words: rubber tree white root disease, MaxEnt model, climate change, major environmental factor, risk area