林业科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 1-12.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230172
• 前沿与重点:典型树种空间分布的气候变化响应与适应 • 上一篇 下一篇
王亚1,王军辉1,王福德3,刘逸夫2,谭灿灿2,袁艳超2,聂稳2,刘建锋1,常二梅1,贾子瑞1,*()
收稿日期:
2023-04-27
出版日期:
2023-12-25
发布日期:
2024-01-08
通讯作者:
贾子瑞
E-mail:.jiazirui646@163.com
基金资助:
Ya Wang1,Junhui Wang1,Fude Wang3,Yifu Liu2,Cancan Tan2,Yanchao Yuan2,Wen Nie2,Jianfeng Liu1,Ermei Chang1,Zirui Jia1,*()
Received:
2023-04-27
Online:
2023-12-25
Published:
2024-01-08
Contact:
Zirui Jia
E-mail:.jiazirui646@163.com
摘要:
目的: 探究红皮云杉地理分布格局与气候变化的关系,模拟红皮云杉在不同时期气候变化下的潜在适生分布区,为红皮云杉的资源管理和多样性保护提供科学依据。方法: 基于我国红皮云杉59个现有分布点数据和Worldclim网站下载的19个气候变量,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),模拟红皮云杉在现代、末次间冰期(LIG)、末次盛冰期(LGM)、全新世中期(MH)以及未来2个时期(2050s和2070s)2种排放气候场景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下的适生分布区,分析限制红皮云杉地理分布的主要环境因子,推测其生物避难所,预测其在未来气候变化情景下的变化趋势。结果: MaxEnt预测结果可靠,训练数据集和测试数据集的平均AUC均大于0.99,具有极高可信度。最暖季度降水量(Bio18)、气温季节性变动系数(Bio4)和降水量季节性变化(Bio15)是限制红皮云杉地理分布的主要变量,贡献率分别为40.6%、28.9%和24.6%。红皮云杉当前适生区包括中国的大兴安岭、小兴安岭、长白山地区;红皮云杉在LIG、LGM和MH时期的适生区面积分别为当前的102.59%,105.20%和100.53%;从末次盛冰期到现代,其分布中心具有向东南、再向东北、再向西南的迁移趋势。未来气候情景下红皮云杉的适生区面积呈减少趋势,RCP4.5-2050s、RCP4.5-2070s、RCP8.5-2050s和RCP8.5-2070s情景下的适生区面积分别为当前时期的99.06%、96.88%、98.05%和95.08%,高适生区边缘呈片段化分布,小兴安岭腹地和长白山腹地的种群较为稳定。结论: 相对于温度,降水对红皮云杉地理分布的影响更重要。红皮云杉在末次盛冰期发生种群扩张,从全新世中期到现代其种群持续收缩。通过种群遗传多样性、适生区预测和孢粉化石等推测长白山腹地和小兴安岭腹地是红皮云杉的间冰期避难所。未来气候情景下,红皮云杉适生区面积缩小,其分布中心有向高海拔和高纬度地区迁移的趋势,应考虑优先保护大兴安岭北部到中部、长白山西部和张广才岭北部等高适生区的边缘种群。
中图分类号:
王亚,王军辉,王福德,刘逸夫,谭灿灿,袁艳超,聂稳,刘建锋,常二梅,贾子瑞. 末次间冰期以来及未来气候情景下红皮云杉适生分布区模拟[J]. 林业科学, 2023, 59(12): 1-12.
Ya Wang,Junhui Wang,Fude Wang,Yifu Liu,Cancan Tan,Yanchao Yuan,Wen Nie,Jianfeng Liu,Ermei Chang,Zirui Jia. Simulation of Suitable Distribution Areas of Picea koraiensis in China Since the Last Interglacial and Under Future Climate Scenarios[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(12): 1-12.
表1
影响红皮云杉适生分布的环境变量贡献百分率"
代码 Code | 环境变量 Environmental variable | 贡献率 Percent contribution (%) | 排列重要性 Permutation importance (%) |
Bio18 | 最暖季度降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter | 40.6 | 36.3 |
Bio4 | 气温季节性变动系数Temperature seasonality | 28.9 | 5.8 |
Bio15 | 降水量季节性变化Precipitation seasonality | 24.6 | 0.3 |
Bio1 | 年均气温Annual mean temperature | 4 | 1.3 |
Bio17 | 最干季度降水量Precipitation of driest quarter | 1.5 | 55.7 |
Bio3 | 等温性Isothermality | 0.4 | 0.5 |
表2
红皮云杉在多种气候条件下的适生面积①"
气候情景 Climates scenarios | 总适生区 Total suitable area | 低适生区 Low suitable area | 中适生区 Moderate suitable area | 高适生区 High suitable area | |||||||
面积 Area/104 km2 | 比率 Ratio (%) | 面积 Area/104 km2 | 比率 Ratio (%) | 面积 Area/104 km2 | 比率 Ratio (%) | 面积 Area/104 km2 | 比率 Ratio (%) | ||||
1970—2000 | 133.58 | 100 | 40.93 | 100 | 42.36 | 100 | 50.29 | 100 | |||
LIG | 137.04 | 102.59 | 43.40 | 106.03 | 41.20 | 97.26 | 52.44 | 104.28 | |||
LGM | 140.52 | 105.20 | 46.10 | 112.63 | 40.25 | 95.02 | 54.18 | 107.74 | |||
MH | 134.29 | 100.53 | 40.71 | 99.46 | 41.17 | 97.19 | 52.40 | 104.20 | |||
2050-RCP4.5 | 132.32 | 99.06 | 39.49 | 96.48 | 43.31 | 102.24 | 49.52 | 98.47 | |||
2070-RCP4.5 | 129.41 | 96.88 | 38.74 | 94.65 | 42.91 | 101.30 | 47.76 | 94.97 | |||
2050-RCP8.5 | 130.98 | 98.05 | 39.52 | 96.56 | 43.19 | 101.96 | 48.27 | 95.98 | |||
2070-RCP8.5 | 127.01 | 95.08 | 35.06 | 85.66 | 44.41 | 104.84 | 47.54 | 94.53 |
表3
不同时期红皮云杉适生区质心坐标和迁徙距离①"
物种 Species | 时期 Period | 经度 Longtitude | 纬度 Latitude | 距离 Distance/km | 方向 Direction |
红皮云杉 Picea koraiensis | LIG | 127°1'46.92''E | 46°14'27.38''N | ||
LGM | 127°14'49.34''E | 46°10'54.01''N | 21.62 | 东南Southeast | |
MH | 127°18'54.83''E | 46°15'0.44''N | 8.96 | 东北Northeast | |
CUR | 126°14'28.81''E | 46°6'14.27''N | 104.43 | 西南Southwest | |
RCP4.5-2050s | 127°17'54.03''E | 46°25'2.47''N | 105.72 | 东北Northeast | |
RCP4.5-2070s | 127°3'15.60''E | 46°15'33.81''N | 27.40 | 西南Southwest | |
RCP8.5-2050s | 126°57'0.64''E | 45°49'27.43''N | 72.81 | 东南Southeast | |
RCP8.5-2070s | 127°1'25.55''E | 46°11'31.04''N | 33.56 | 东北Northeast |
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