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林业科学 ›› 2004, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 106-109.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20040117

• 论文及研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

林分因子与舞毒蛾危害程度的风险评估

石娟 闫国增 关玲 李镇宇 冯继华   

  1. 北京林业大学资源与环境学院,北京100083;北京市林木保护站,北京100029;
  • 收稿日期:2002-03-28 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2004-01-25 发布日期:2004-01-25

Gypsy Moth, Harm extent, Stand description factors, Regression analysis

Shi Juan,Li Zhenyu,Yan Guozeng,Guan Ling,Feng Jihua   

  1. college of Resource and Environment of Beijing Forestry University Beijng100083;Beijing Municipal Forestry Protection Station Beijing100029
  • Received:2002-03-28 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2004-01-25 Published:2004-01-25

摘要:

研究了12个影响舞毒蛾危害程度的林分因子,对这些林分因子对舞毒蛾危害程度进行逐步回归分析,从中筛选出主林层郁闭度、土壤瘠薄程度和林地面积3个关键因子。结果表明:土壤瘠薄程度与舞毒蛾危害程度呈正相关,其余2个关键因子与舞毒蛾危害程度呈显著的负相关。用这3个因子与舞毒蛾危害程度建立多元线形回归模型,该模型可对舞毒蛾危害程度进行风险评估。

关键词: 舞毒蛾, 危害程度, 林分因子, 风险评估

Abstract:

12 stand description factors affecting the harm extent of the Gypsy moth(Ocneria dispar) was studied,through stepwise regression analysis from which three significant ones were selected:crown density, infertile extent of soil and forest area.The results showed that a direct correlation exists between infertile extent of soil and the harm extent of the gypsy moth,a significant inverse correlation exists between the other two key factors and the harm extent of this insect.Using the three key factors a multiphase linear regression model was made for risk analysis of the harm extent of the gypsy moth.

Key words: Typhlodromus bambusae, Experimental population, Development and reproduction, Temperature