美国杂草风险评估方法对我国入侵植物的可应用性

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20200422

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 利用我国已知身份的外来植物测试美国杂草风险评估方法(USWRA)的评估效果，评判该方法是否适用于我国林木引种检疫管理工作，为建立我国入侵植物风险评估方法奠定研究基础。方法: 从我国已知身份外来植物中选择出131种受试植物(包括76种非入侵植物和55种入侵植物)，应用USWRA对其逐一评估，将评估结果与受试植物已知身份进行对比，整理并分析USWRA的评估效果，采用ROC曲线进行检验。利用Friedman检验和Nemenyi方法分析不同生活型植物中入侵植物的比例差异，运用单因素方差分析和LSD多重比较方法分析不同生活型植物间风险值的差异。结果: USWRA正确拒绝了68.4%的严重入侵植物，没有错误接受1种严重入侵植物，其余31.6%需再评估；USWRA正确接受了84.2%的非入侵植物，没有错误拒绝1种非入侵植物，其余15.8%需再评估；USWRA拒绝了27.8%的一般入侵植物，接受了5.6%的一般入侵植物，其余66.7%需再评估。ROC曲线检验结果显示，USWRA对严重入侵植物和非入侵植物具有很高的识别能力，由此形成的曲线面积AUC值高达0.990。不同生活型植物中入侵植物比例存在显著差异，草本类和藤本类植物成为入侵植物的风险比乔木类植物大。结论: 美国杂草风险评估方法能较好识别出严重入侵植物和非入侵植物，无一例错误，可应用于我国林木引种检疫管理工作，以提高风险评估的准确性和工作效率。

关键词: 外来入侵植物, 杂草, 杂草风险评估, ROC检验

Abstract:

Objective: In this study,a priori category of alien plants in China was used to test the assessment effect by the United States weed risk assessment system (USWRA),and the paper further analyzed whether USWRA could be applicable to the quarantine management of forest plants in China,in order to lay a foundation for the establishment of risk assessment methods for invasive plants in China. Method: In this paper,131 alien plants (including 76 non-invasive plants and 55 invasive plants) with a priori category in China were selected and tested with USWRA. The evaluation outcome of USWRA was analyzed through comparing the predictive categories of the tested plants evaluated by USWRA with the known categories,and the outcome was tested using the ROC curve. In addition,the proportion difference of invasive plants in different life forms was analyzed by Friedman test and Nemenyi method. One-way ANOVA and LSD multiple comparison methods were used to analyze the differences in risk scores among different life forms of plants. Result: For major invasive plants,USWRA correctly rejected 68.4% of them,and did not wrongly accept single one,and the remaining 31.6% needed to be evaluated further. For non-invasive plants,USWRA correctly accepted 84.2% of them,and did not wrongly reject single one,and the remaining 15.8% needed to be evaluated further. For minor invasive plants,USWRA rejected 27.8% of them,accepted 5.6% of them,and the remaining 66.7% needed to be evaluated further. The ROC curve test results showed that USWRA had a high ability to distinguish major invasive plants from non-invasive plants with a curved AUC value up to 0.990. In addition,there were significant differences in risk scores to become invasive plants among different life forms,and the risk scores of herbaceous and vine plants were significantly higher than those of arbor plants. There were significant differences in the proportion of invasive plants in different life forms,and the risk of herbaceous and vine-like plants becoming invasive plants was greater than that of tree plants. Conclusion: USWRA can satisfactorily discriminate major invasive plants from non-invasive plants without any error,and thus it can be applied the quarantine management of forest plants in China.

Key words: invasive alienplant, weed, weed risk assessment, ROC curve

中图分类号:

S718.3

何善勇,徐飞,张宁,温俊宝,印丽萍. 美国杂草风险评估方法对我国入侵植物的可应用性[J]. 林业科学, 2020, 56(4): 197-208.

Shanyong He,Fei Xu,Ning Zhang,Junbao Wen,Liping Yin. Applicability of the United States Weed Risk Assessment System to Invasive Plants in China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(4): 197-208.

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k	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
q_0.05	1.960	2.241	2.394	2.498	2.576	2.638	2.690	2.724	2.773
q_0.1	1.645	1.960	2.128	2.241	2.326	2.394	2.450	2.498	2.539

已知植物类别 Class	ES		IMP
已知植物类别 Class	均值±标准差Mean±SE	分数范围Range of scores	均值±标准差Mean±SE	分数范围Range of scores
非入侵植物 Non-invasive plants	-1.47±0.43^A	-9~10	1.06±0.02^A	1.0~1.8
一般入侵植物 Minor-invasive plants	6.67±0.64^B	0~16	1.66±0.08^B	1.0~2.4
严重入侵植物 Major- invasive plants	10.68±0.71^C	4~17	1.84±0.09^B	1.1~2.5

结果 Outcome	非入侵植物 Non-invasive plants	严重入侵植物 Major invasive plants	一般入侵植物 Minor invasive plants	入侵植物(严重+一般) Invasive plants(major+minor)
接受Accept	64(84.2%)	0	2 (5.6%)	2 (3.6%)
拒绝Reject	0	13 (68.4%)	10 (27.8%)	23 (41.8%)
再评估Evaluate further	12 (15.8%)	6 (31.6%)	24 (66.7%)	30 (54.5%)
总计Total	76	19	36	55

项目Item	草本Grass	藤本Vine	灌木Shrub	乔木Tree
严重入侵植物比例 Proportion of major-invasive plants	0.20(2)	0.25(1)	0.11(3)	0.00(4)
一般入侵植物比例 Proportion of minor-invasive plants	0.39(1)	0.25(2)	0.16(3)	0.10(4)
平均秩值 Average rank	1.5	1.5	3	4

生活型Life form	草本Grass	藤本Vine	灌木Shrub	乔木Tree
草本Grass	0	0	1.5	2.5
藤木Vine	0	0	1.5	2.5
灌木Shrub	1.5	1.5	0	1
乔木Tree	2.5	2.5	1	0