基于CBM-CFS3模型的不同采伐情景下马尾松人工林生态系统碳动态

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250408

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 厘清采伐干扰下人工林碳库变化以及碳收支响应规律，为人工林木材生产与碳汇功能双提升的科学经营提供新的思路和视角。方法: 以我国亚热带地区马尾松人工林为研究对象，利用经参数本地化改进的CBM-CFS3模型模拟马尾松人工林碳库组分差异以及不同采伐强度下（0、10%、25%和40%）未来41年碳汇变化。结果: 各类马尾松人工林的Richards方程拟合效果良好（R²≥0.57，MAE≤15.54 m³?hm^?2，RMSE≤17.50 m³?hm^?2），能够较为广泛地表征区域内马尾松生长态势。2018年马尾松人工林生态系统平均碳密度为122.97 Mg?hm^?2（植被层34.79 Mg?hm^?2、死亡有机质32.00 Mg?hm^?2、土壤56.18 Mg?hm^?2），其中植被层各碳库的碳密度整体呈现出干>根>枝>叶的排序。在采伐周期为15年的各类经营情景下，2019—2060年马尾松人工林所能达到的碳密度最大值和固碳速率最大值均为10%采伐强度>0采伐强度>25%采伐强度>40%采伐强度；15年采伐周期+10%采伐强度情景的最大碳密度和最大固碳速率分别可达194.73 Mg?hm^?2和2.30 Mg?hm^?2a^?1，到2060年时，我国马尾松人工林碳储量最高可达494.17 Tg，其中生物量碳储量可达217.94 Tg。结论: CBM-CFS3模型经参数本地化改进后可对马尾松人工林各碳库分布及碳密度变化进行良好模拟。10%采伐强度情景下，马尾松人工林具备最大的固碳潜力，能够兼顾木材生产和碳汇功能。建议在人工林经营中采取适度的采伐强度和周期，以此帮助快速更新老化林分，在保证高出材率的同时提高碳固存能力。

关键词: CBM-CFS3模型, 马尾松人工林, 采伐经营, 生态系统, 碳汇

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to clarify the dynamics of carbon pool changes and carbon balance responses of plantations under harvesting disturbances, so as to provide guidance for scientific management of the dual enhancement of timber production and carbon sink functions of plantations. Method: Pinus massoniana plantations in subtropical China were taken as the object. The CBM-CFS3 model improved by parameter localization was used to simulate differences in carbon pool components and future carbon sink dynamics over the next 41 years under four harvesting intensities (0%, 10%, 25% and 40%). Result: The Richards equation provided a good fit for various types of P. massoniana plantations (R²≥0.57, MAE≤15.54 m³?hm^?2, RMSE≤17.50 m³?hm^?2), and was able to effectively characterize stand growth patterns of P. massoniana across the region. In 2018, the average ecosystem carbon density was 122.97 Mg?hm^?2, with contributions from vegetation layer (34.79 Mg?hm^?2), dead organic matter (32.00 Mg?hm^?2), and soil (56.18 Mg?hm^?2). Within the vegetation carbon pool, the order of carbon density was stem > root > branch > foliage. Under management scenarios with a harvesting cycle of 15-year, the maximum carbon density and the maximum sequestration rate achieved by P. massoniana plantations between 2019 and 2060 were as the follow: 10% harvesting intensity > no harvesting > 25% harvesting intensity > 40% harvesting intensity. Specifically, under the 15-year harvesting cycle with 10% harvesting intensity scenario, the maximum carbon density reached 194.73 Mg?hm^?2, and a maximum sequestration rate reached 2.30 Mg?hm^?2a^?1. By 2060, the total carbon stock of P. massoniana plantations in China could reach 494.17 Tg, including 217.94 Tg in biomass. Conclusion: The CBM-CFS3 model improved by parameter localization can effectively simulate distributions of carbon pools and dynamics of carbon density in P. massoniana plantations. Under the scenario of 10% harvesting intensity, P. massoniana plantations have the greatest carbon sequestration potential, balancing timber production with carbon sink function. It is recommended to adopt moderate harvesting intensity and cycle in plantation management to promote the rapid renewal of aging stands, thereby ensuring high timber yield while enhancing carbon sequestration capacity.

Key words: CBM-CFS3 model, Pinus massoniana plantations, harvesting management, ecosystem, carbon sink

中图分类号:

S727.13

朱粟锋,勾蒙蒙,赵海平,刘常富,简尊吉,朱建华,肖文发. 基于CBM-CFS3模型的不同采伐情景下马尾松人工林生态系统碳动态[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(12): 24-33.

Sufeng Zhu,Mengmeng Gou,Haiping Zhao,Changfu Liu,Zunji Jian,Jianhua Zhu,Wenfa Xiao. Simulated Carbon Dynamics of Pinus massoniana Plantation Ecosystems under Different Harvesting Scenarios Using the CBM-CFS3 Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(12): 24-33.

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气候分区 Climate zone	林分密度等级 Stand density grade	样地数量 Number of plots	林龄≥35 a 的样地数量占比 Number share of plots with stand age≥35 a (%)	平均林龄 Average stand age/a	林分密度 Stand density/ hm^?2	林分蓄积量 Stand volume/ (m³ ? hm^?2)
南亚热带 South subtropical	高 High	25	8.00	9~40	1 550~3 050	27.98~233.48
	中 Middle	67	20.90	11~52	533~148 3	8.20~200.96
	低 Low	14	14.29	12~55	183~483	4.24~93.91
中亚热带 Middle subtropical	高 High	215	13.30	6~54	1 514~4 183	22.58~319.07
	中 Middle	275	20.00	6~65	510~1 500	6.88~259.45
	低 Low	74	16.22	2~50	83~500	1.18~191.17
北亚热带 North subtropical	高 High	67	23.88	9~47	1 514~3 358	24.23~318.04
	中 Middle	86	31.40	14~54	517~1 499	15.29~177.24
	低 Low	24	37.50	12~45	60~500	3.76~51.90

参数 Parameter	碳库 Carbon pools	修改前 Before modification	修改后 After modification	参考来源 Reference source
生物量周转参数 Biomass turnover parameters	干 Stem	0.45~0.67	1.94	付甜，2013
	枝 Branch	75	60.61
	叶 Foliage	95	33.56
	根 Root	2	1.79
死亡有机质及土壤周转参数 Dead organic matter and soil turnover parameters	地上各碳库 Aboveground carbon pools	0.015~0.36	0.02~0.43	冯源，2020
	地下各碳库 Underground carbon pools	0.003 3~0.5	0~0.4	冯源，2020
含碳系数 Carbon content coefficient	干 Stem	0.5	0.518 6	LY/T 2263—2014
	枝 Branch	0.5	0.517 4
	叶 Foliage	0.5	0.578 5
	根 Root	0.5	0.508 2

分区 Zones	密度等级 Density grade	最佳拟合方程 Best fitting equation	R²	MAE/ (m³?hm^?2)	RMSE/ (m³?hm^?2)
南亚热带 South subtropical	高 High	$ y=129.88 \times\{1-\exp (-0.2 t)\}^{4.91} $	0.80	12.83	14.95
	中 Medium	$ y=90.88 \times\{1-\exp [-0.14(t-5.55)]\}^{0.99} $	0.81	11.85	13.94
	低 Low	$ y=25.05 \times\{-\exp (-0.12 t)\}^{2.18} $	0.67	4.01	4.56

中亚热带 Middle subtropical	高 High	$ y=113.84 \times(1-\exp (-0.2 t)\}^{9.15} $	0.57	15.54	17.50
	中 Medium	$ y=93.24 \times\{1-\exp(-0.103 t)\}^{4.35} $	0.82	9.38	11.01
	低 Low	$ y=21.94 \times\{1-\exp (-0.16 t)\}^{5.61} $	0.87	2.39	2.86

北亚热带 North subtropical	高 High	$ y=92.61 \times\{1-\exp (-0.096 t)\}^{1.84} $	0.62	7.89	9.13
	中 Medium	$ y=97.45 \times\{1-\exp (-0.081 t)\}^{4.64} $	0.85	7.22	8.45
	低 Low	$ y=26.98 \times\{1-\exp(-0.16 t)\}^{10} $	0.84	3.15	3.72

数据源 Data source	生态系统碳密度 Ecosystem carbon density/ (Mg?hm^?2)	生物量碳密度 Biomass carbon density/ (Mg?hm^?2)	土壤碳密度 Soil carbon density/ (Mg?hm^?2)	死亡有机质碳密度 Dead organic matter carbon density/ (Mg?hm^?2)
第7期 No. 7	125.90	38.21	55.71	31.98
第8期 No. 8	125.06	37.38	55.74	31.94
第9期 No. 9	125.45	37.41	55.80	32.24

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