气候变化情景下基于潜在NPP的河北省华北落叶松生长适宜性

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191105

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: Simulating the potential NPP spatial pattern and classifying the appropriate growth level of Larix principis-rupprechtii trees,are essential steps to assess the impact of climate change on the species and to provide a theoretical basis for formulating adaptive forest management strategies and for improving forest quality. Method: Based on the forest resource inventory data and the yearly accumulative NDVI data from 2001 to 2010 in Hebei Province,the climate datasets of current and two future periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099)were generated using the Climate AP model. The CASA model was applied to predict potential NPP of the L. principis-rupprechtii and to analyze its growth suitability in the current and the two future periods. Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore influence of temperature and precipitation on the spatial pattern of potential NPP at the pixel scale. Result: The current average annual potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii was 342.7 gC·m^-2a^-1in Hebei Province. More than 80% areas of Hebei Province,including plains and northwest region with high elevation,had low suitability for the L. principis-rupprechtii growth. Whereas areas with high growth suitability of L. principis-rupprechtii might tend to potentially occur in the subalpine region,only accounting for less than 20% of the whole region. From 2040 to 2069, the average annual potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii will be increased to 392.9 gC·m^-2a^-1,the overall suitability will be significantly improved,and the medium-suitable area will be expanded significantly to 59.4% of the whole region. From 2070 to 2099, the average annual potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii will be decreased slightly to 375.1 gC·m^-2a^-1,the growth suitability will be decreased,and the proportion of high suitable area will be reduced. The potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii in Hebei Province was mainly affected by precipitation and it was significantly positively correlated with precipitation in most areas(P < 0.05). The current precipitation conditions limit the productivity of L. principis-rupprechtii. Conclusion: The results indicated that the growth suitability of L. principis-rupprechtii change under changing climate in the future. The change mainly occurred in the region with low and medium-growth suitability and the overall suitability will be improved. Enlarging afforestation area of L. principis-rupprechtii in high growth suitable region for current and future could be an option for preventing the adverse effects of climate change.

Key words: climate change, CASA model, Larix principis-rupprechtii, net primary production, growth suitability

CLC Number:

S718.5

Zhengang Lü,Wenbo Li,Xuanrui Huang,Zhidong Zhang. Larix principis-rupprechtii Growth Suitability Based on Potential NPP under Climate Change Scenarios in Hebei Province[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(11): 37-44.

Figures/Tables 6

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References 0

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时期 Periods	潜在NPP范围 Potential NPP range/ (gC·m^-2a^-1)	潜在NPP均值 Potential NPP mean/ (gC·m^-2a^-1)	不适宜生长区面积比例 Area percentage of not suitable(%)	低度适宜生长区区面积比例 Area percentage of low suitable(%)	中度适宜生长区区面积比例 Area percentage of mid-suitable(%)	高度适宜生长区区面积比例 Area percentage of high suitable(%)
当前Current	185.8~551.8	342.7	7.4	76.7	15.3	0.6
2040—2069	217.8~547.2	392.9	2.3	32.6	59.4	5.7
2070 —2099	221.8~540.6	375.1	4.2	64.9	29.4	1.5

气候因子 Climatic factors	不适宜 Not suitable	低度适宜 Low suitable	中度适宜 Mid-suitable	高度适宜 High suitable
年均气温Mean annual temperature/℃	1.0~11.6	-0.1 ~14.7	0~14.1	3.8~9.5
年均降水量Mean annual precipitation/mm	324.9~657.2	311.3~862.1	426.9 ~895.6	528.5~1 004.1

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Larix principis-rupprechtii Growth Suitability Based on Potential NPP under Climate Change Scenarios in Hebei Province

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