碳中和目标下中国森林碳储量、碳汇变化预估与潜力提升途径

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230206

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

增强森林固碳增汇功能是减缓大气二氧化碳浓度上升和全球气候变暖的重要手段，也是实现碳中和国家战略目标的有效途径。本研究基于文献分析法和模型模拟，系统阐述中国森林碳储量和碳汇现状、动态变化与潜力提升途径。根据国家森林资源连续清查数据测算的森林植被碳储量近5年平均年增长0.152 Pg（以C计），2000s—2010s中国陆地生态系统碳汇量约229.7 Tg·a^?1（以C计），其中森林植被（指乔木林）碳储量约增加150.6 Tg·a^?1（以C计），约占整个陆地生态系统植被碳汇量的65.6%。过去70年，中国森林已从碳源转变为逐渐增强的碳汇。在森林面积保持不变的情景下，相比2000s—2010s时段，2030年后现有乔木林的生物量碳汇将有所下降；如果森林面积未来持续增加，2030—2050年中国新增乔木林的碳汇量仍将呈增加趋势。在全球变化背景下，气候变化及其引发的风险（极端干旱与热浪事件、森林火灾、病虫害等）可能会削弱森林碳汇功能。为维持并提升森林碳储量和碳汇潜力，需要采取森林碳储与碳汇双增以及森林碳汇与木质林产品碳库协同提升的策略，从保碳、增碳、扩碳和碳资源化利用的汇转移4个途径对森林资源实施保护修复、精准绿化、科学经营与合理利用以及多时空尺度的优化布局，同时重视森林土壤碳库增汇的长期效应。在林业减缓和适应气候变化框架下，森林碳汇潜力提升未来研究重点是科学推进国土绿化适宜造林地和树种选择，森林经营增汇技术，森林碳储、碳汇协同提升与木质产品库的碳汇转移与存续的时空配置优化模式，森林土壤固碳增汇机制以及潜力研究，准确评估森林碳汇对实现国家碳中和目标的贡献及其时间表和路线图。

关键词: 森林, 碳储量, 碳汇, 森林面积, 固碳潜力, 碳增汇技术

Abstract:

Enhancing forest carbon sink is an effective way to slow down the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, contributing to China’s national strategic goals for carbon neutrality. This review summarizes major research progresses in quantification of dynamic changes in forest carbon storage and sink, and explores the ways of their potential capacity enhancement. According to the China’s national forest resources inventory, the carbon storage of forests has increased by an average annual rate of 0.152 Pg in the past five years. The carbon sink of China’s terrestrial ecosystems during the 2000s—2010s was about 229.7 Tg·a^?1, of which forests (here only referring to arbor forests) increased by about 150.6 Tg·a^?1, accounting for about 65.6% of the total terrestrial vegetation carbon sink. Over the past 70 years, China’s forests have turned from carbon source to rising carbon sink. The potential capacity of forest biomass carbon storage and sink are projected with the two scenarios. Without increasing afforestation, the existing forest biomass carbon sink will be likely to decline after 2030 compared with the base line of 2020, while it may continue to increase during 2030 to 2050 with increasing afforestation. Under the global change, climate change and climate-driven disturbance risks (such as extreme droughts and heatwaves, forest fires, pests and disease outbreaks) may fundamentally jeopardize forest carbon sinks. Therefore, in order to maintain and enhance the carbon sink capacity of China’s forests, it is necessary to scientifically optimize national forest management schemes in terms of carbon pool preservation of the existing natural forests, carbon sink enhancement either through rational management of the existing forests or through afforestation expansion, and carbon sink transfer from the living forests to the forest product pool for simultaneously maintaining sustainable improvements of both forest carbon stock and sink. Forest soils should be given due attention as a slowly increasing sink potential from a long-term perspective. Under the framework of forest mitigation and adaptation to climate change, future research priorities in forest carbon sequestration include identification of suitable site and tree species for land greening under a changing environment, forest adaptive management regime for carbon sequestration enhancement, insight into the mechanisms underlying forest soil carbon sequestration, and optimizing tempo-spatial patterns of synergistic enhancements in forest biomass carbon stock and sink capacity. In addition, there is a need to accurately assess the potential capacity of forest carbon sink contributing to achieving China’s carbon neutrality goal with the defined timeline and roadmap of the deliverables.

Key words: forest ecosystem, carbon storage, carbon sink, forest management, carbon sequestration potential, carbon sink enhancement

中图分类号:

S718.55

刘世荣,王晖,李海奎,余振,栾军伟. 碳中和目标下中国森林碳储量、碳汇变化预估与潜力提升途径[J]. 林业科学, 2024, 60(4): 157-172.

Shirong Liu,Hui Wang,Haikui Li,Zhen Yu,Junwei Luan. Projections of China’s Forest Carbon Storage and Sequestration and Ways of Their Potential Capacity Enhancement[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2024, 60(4): 157-172.

图/表 7

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表2

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图1

表4

树种选择和近自然林经营对土壤碳储量影响"

森林经营 Forest management	土壤碳储量影响 Impact of soil carbon storage	参考文献 References
树种选择 Tree species selection	格氏栲 > 杉木 Castanopsis kawakamii > Cunninghamia lanceolata	杨玉盛等，2006
	福建柏 > 杉木 Fokienia hodginsii > C. lanceolata	何宗明等，2003
	红锥 > 马尾松,且高出11% Castanopsis hystrix > P. massoniana, and 11% higher	Wang et al.，2010a
	火力楠 > 马尾松，且高出19% Michelia macclurei > P. massoniana, and 19% higher
	米老排 > 马尾松，且高出18% Mytilaria laosensis > P. massoniana, and 18% higher
	针阔混交林 > 针叶和阔叶纯林 Mixed coniferous and deciduous forests > pure coniferous and deciduous forests	Wang et al.，2007
	马尾松和红锥混交 > 马尾松，且高出14.3% P. massoniana and C. hystrix mixed forests > P. massoniana, and 14.3% higher	Wang et al.，2013b
	马尾松和红锥混交 > 红锥，且高出8.1% Mixed P. massoniana and C. hystrix forests > C. hystrix, and 8.1% higher	Wang et al.，2013b
	马占相思和尾叶桉混交可提高土壤碳汇功能 Mixture of Acacia mangium and Eucalyptus urophylla improved soil carbon sink function	Huang et al.，2014
	桉树人工林中引入固氮树种利于增加难降解碳含量和土壤碳汇 Introducing nitrogen-fixing species into Eucalyptus plantations increased the amount of non-degradable carbon and soil carbon sink	Huang et al.，2017
	针叶人工林中引入固氮树种利于增强土壤有机碳化学稳定性 Introducing nitrogen-fixing species into coniferous plantations improved the chemical stability of soil organic carbon	Wang et al.，2019b
近自然林经营 Near-natural forest management	水曲柳人工纯林和近自然化培育的水曲柳-落叶松混交林 > 落叶松纯林 Pure plantation forests of ash and mixed larch and close-to-nature plantation ash forests > larch pure forests	王新宇等，2008
	未改造的纯林 > 马尾松近自然林(在马尾松纯林中套种红椎和香梓楠) Unmodified pure forests > close-to-nature P. massoniana forests (planting C. hystrix and Michelia gioii in a pure P. massoniana forests)	何友均等，2013
	挪威云杉纯林 > 欧洲山毛榉和挪威云杉的近自然林 > 欧洲山毛榉纯林 Pure Picea abies forests > close-to-nature plantation forests of Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies > pure Fagus sylvatica forests	Berger et al.，2009

表4

表5

森林经营措施对人工林土壤碳的影响"

森林经营 Forest management	土壤碳储量影响 Impact of soil carbon storage	参考文献 References
抚育采伐 Intermediate cutting	降低土壤碳含量 Reduced soil carbon	Yildiz et al.，2011
	降低土壤总有机碳和易氧化碳 Reduced total soil organic carbon and readily oxidizable carbon	吴亚丛等，2013
	提高马尾松林乔木层生物量和碳储量 Increased biomass and carbon storage in the tree layer of P. massoniana forests	明安刚等，2013
	土壤含碳量随着抚育间伐强度的增加而出现先降后升的趋势 Soil carbon content decreased first and then increased with the increase of thinning intensity	梁晶等，2015
森林采伐 Deforestation	降低土壤有机碳含量 Decreased soil organic carbon content	Yanai et al.，2003
森林采伐 Deforestation	降低甲烷汇功能 Reduced methane sink function	高升华等，2013
施肥 Fertilization	增加土壤碳储量 Increased soil carbon storage	王晖等，2008
	降低土壤有机碳固定和储量 Decreased soil organic carbon fixation and storage	冯瑞芳等，2006
	增加土壤呼吸 Increased soil respiration	Peng et al.，2008
	并未显著改变土壤呼吸 Did not significantly change soil respiration	董钰鑫等，2015
	落叶松人工林土壤呼吸速率减少34.9% Soil respiration rate decreased by 34.9% in larch plantations	贾淑霞等，2007
	水曲柳人工林土壤呼吸速率减少25.8% Soil respiration rate decreased by 25.8% in ash plantations	贾淑霞等，2007
炼山 Prescribed burning	高强度野火可减少土壤有机碳 High-intensity wildfire reduced soil organic carbon	Wang et al.，2012
	计划烧除对土壤有机碳没有显著影响 Planned burning had no significant effect on soil organic carbon
	针叶林发生野火后土壤有机碳明显降低 Soil organic carbon significantly decreased after wildfire in coniferous forests
	阔叶林发生野火后土壤有机碳增加 Soil organic carbon increased in broadleaf forests after wildfire
	高强度火烧比低强度降低61.4% High-intensity fire decreased by 61.4% compared to low-intensity	李纫兰等，2009
	中强度火烧比低强度降低39.5% Medium intensity fire decreased by 39.5% compared to low intensity fire	李纫兰等，2009
	随着火烧强度的增加，土壤碳的损失量增多 The loss of soil carbon increased with the increase of fire intensity	谷会岩等，2010
	土壤碳含量变化并不显著 Did not significantly change soil carbon content	Johnson et al.，2001

表5

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项目 Item	调查期Investigating period										参考文献 Reference
项目 Item	1973— 1976	1977— 1981	1984— 1988	1989— 1993	1994— 1998	1999— 2003	2004— 2008	2009— 2013	2014— 2018	2021	参考文献 Reference
碳储量 Carbon storage/ Pg	5.20	5.59	5.75	5.84	5.93	6.47	6.91	7.64	7.82		张颖等，2022
	3.91	4.15	4.32	4.85	5.32	6.15	6.64	7.36	8.36		张煜星等，2021
	4.44	4.38	4.45	4.63	4.75						Fang et al.，2001
	3.85	3.70	3.76	4.11	4.66	5.51					徐新良等，2007
							6.66	7.14	7.58	8.99	李海奎等，2011；国家林业局，2009；2014；国家林业和草原局，2019a；2022
							7.81	8.43	9.19	10.72	**

碳库 C pool	生态系统 Ecosystem	时期 Period/year	面积^* Area/10⁶ hm²	碳汇量 Carbon sink/(Tg·a^?1)	参考文献 References
生物质 Biomass	森林 Forest	1999—2013	150.4 (142.7~188.2)	150.6 (94.9~236.8)	Fang et al.，2007；2018；Piao et al.，2007；Xie et al.，2007；徐新良等，2007；吴庆标等，2008；Guo et al.，2010；2013；Huang et al.，2010；Wang et al.，2010b；Tian et al.，2011；Lun et al.，2012；Yu et al.，2012；2013；2022；Zhang et al.，2013；2016；Liu et al.，2017a；2017b；Tang et al.，2018； Zhao et al.，2018；2019
	经济林 Economy forest	1999—2008	20.9 (20.4~21.4)	0.13 (?2.30~2.80)	Guo et al.，2013；Zhang et al.，2013
	竹林Bamboo	1999—2008	5.1 (4.8~5.4)	2.26 (0.01~4.70)	Guo et al.，2013；Zhang et al.，2013
	灌木Shrubs	1999—2010	57.8 (45.3~74.3)	1.18 (0.02~3.50)	Zhang et al.，2013；Fang et al.，2018
	其他林地 Other woodlands	1999—2008	5.9 (4.8~6.0)	?2	Guo et al.，2013；Zhang et al.，2013
	其他林木 Trees outside forest	1999—2008		?2 (?10~8)	Guo et al.，2013；Zhang et al.，2013
	草地 Grassland	1961—2013	339.7 (281.3~394.9)	5.4(0~9.6)	Piao et al.，2007；Tian et al.，2011； Zhang et al.，2016；Tang et al.，2018
	生物质合计 Subtotal			155.6 (80.6~263.4)
死有机质 Dead organic matter	森林 Forest	2001—2010	188.2	9.0	Fang et al.，2018
土壤有机碳^** Soil organic carbon	森林Forest	1980—2010	196.4 (151.6~249.3)	24.7 (11.7~37.6)	Xie et al.，2007；Fang et al.，2018
	灌木Shrubs	2001—2010	74.3	13.6	Fang et al.，2018
	草地Grassland	1981—2010	340.7 (281.3~400.0)	1.2 (?2.6~4.9)	Huang et al.，2010；Fang et al.，2018
	农田Cropland	1980—2010	143.8 (130.0~171.3)	25.6 (24.0~28.6)	Yu et al.，2012；2013；Fang et al.，2018；Zhao et al.，2018
	土壤有机碳合计Subtotal			65.1 (46.7~71.1)
合计Total				229.7 (136.3~343.5)

项目 Item	时期 Period/year	碳储量 Carbon storage/ Pg	2050年潜在碳储量 Potential carbon storage in 2050/Pg	2050年碳汇量 Carbon sink in 2050/ (Pg·a^?1)	参考文献 References
未来森林面积不变化 Future forest area will not change	1981—2000	4.30-5.90	8.05-9.65	0.075	方精云等，2007
	2000起 Since 2000	6.01	13.86		刘迎春等，2015
	2001—2050	6.30	11.22	0.098	刘迎春等，2019
	—2050		11.56±2.04	0.089±0.060	李海奎，2021
未来森林面积增长 Future forest area growth	2000—2050	5.86	13.09	0.145	徐冰等，2010
	2010—2050	6.14	11.13	0.125	李奇等，2018
	2010—2050	6.90	14.79	0.197	Zhang et al.，2018
	2020—2100	8.48	13.86	0.213	Yu et al.，2024

时期 Period/year	碳储量 Carbon storage/Tg	碳储量年平均增长量 Average yearly increment of carbon storage/( Tg·a^?1)	参考文献 References
1960	130		Ji et al.，2016
1990	347.11		白彦锋等，2009
2004	532.38		白彦锋等，2009
2011	676		杨红强等，2013
2014	705.6		Ji et al.，2016
1961—2004	—	7.9~11.73	白彦锋等，2009
1999—2008	—	7.92	Lun et al.，2012
1961—2011		10.63	杨红强等，2013
1960—2014		10.66	Ji et al.，2016
2020—2100	1151*	8.9±1.2	Yu et al.，2024

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