林业科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (10): 102-110.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20211010
李宏群1,韩培士2,牛常会2,袁晓青2,邢立刚1
收稿日期:
2019-12-22
出版日期:
2021-10-25
发布日期:
2021-12-11
基金资助:
Hongqun Li1,Peishi Han2,Changhui Niu2,Xiaoqing Yuan2,Ligang Xing1
Received:
2019-12-22
Online:
2021-10-25
Published:
2021-12-11
摘要:
目的: 预测现在和未来气候情景下我国特有濒危动物褐马鸡潜在生境分布的变化,为制定有关保护政策提供科学依据。方法: 基于褐马鸡152个分布点和26个环境变量数据,利用MaxEnt模型模拟褐马鸡在我国的潜在地理分布,并基于该模型预测国际政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下21世纪50和70年代褐马鸡潜在分布范围。结果: 所有训练集与验证集为AUC均大于0.8,所构建模型的预测准确性达到优良标准。当前褐马鸡潜在分布生境的主要影响因子(贡献率)依次为年降水量(15.4%)、昼夜温差月均值(15.3%)、植被类型(9.7%)、最干季降水量(9.1%)、最湿季降水量(8.7%)、到道路距离(8.2%)和到水源距离(7.8%)等,累计贡献率达74.2%,且各因子阈值分别为525~580 mm、8.2~10.8℃、植被类型偏向于阔叶林和针阔混交林、12.4~17.1 mm、310~340 mm、0~12.5 m和大于270 m、0~20 m和105~220 m。褐马鸡的适宜生境主要分布在陕西黄龙山、山西吕梁山、河北小五台山和北京百花山,其适宜、中度适宜和不适宜区面积占研究区面积比例分别为6.45%、19.92%和73.62%。与当前情景下相比,未来褐马鸡可生存生境表现为增加趋势,且适宜和中度适宜生境变化趋势相同,而21世纪50和70年代之间几乎不变。结论: 褐马鸡适宜生境主要分布在陕西黄龙山、山西吕梁山、河北小五台山和北京百花山,未来可生存生境表现为增加趋势。影响褐马鸡分布的主要因子为年降水量、昼夜温差月均值、植被类型、最干季降水量、最湿季降水量、到道路距离和到水源距离等。建议对褐马鸡适宜区加强重点保护,对中度适宜区加强保护和管理,同时也要加强常绿针叶林木的栽植和人口控制。
中图分类号:
李宏群,韩培士,牛常会,袁晓青,邢立刚. 气候变化对我国特有濒危动物褐马鸡潜在生境的影响[J]. 林业科学, 2021, 57(10): 102-110.
Hongqun Li,Peishi Han,Changhui Niu,Xiaoqing Yuan,Ligang Xing. Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Habitat of Brown-Eared Pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum), An Endemic and Endangered Animals to China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(10): 102-110.
表2
褐马鸡生境研究的环境变量及其贡献率"
变量Variable | 贡献率 Contribution(%) | 变量Variable | 贡献率 Contribution(%) | |
年降水量Annual precipitation | 15.4 | 最湿月降水量Precipitation of the wettest month | 1.3 | |
昼夜温差月均值Mean diurnal range | 15.3 | 降雨季节性Precipitation seasonality | 1.2 | |
植被类型Vegetation types | 9.7 | 年气温变化范围Temperature annual range | 1.1 | |
最干季降水量Precipitation of the driest quarter | 9.1 | 坡度Slope | 1.0 | |
最湿季降水量Precipitation of the wettest quarter | 8.7 | 最冷月最低温度Min. temperature of the coldest month | 0.7 | |
到道路距离Distance to road | 8.2 | 最热月最高温度Max. temperature of the warmest month | 0.6 | |
到水源距离Distance to water | 7.8 | 最暖季降水量Precipitation of the warmest quarter | 0.1 | |
坡向Aspect | 5.9 | 最暖季度平均温度Mean temperature of the warmest quarter | 0.1 | |
年均气温Annual mean temperature | 3.3 | 海拔Altitude | 0.1 | |
等温性Isothermality | 2.8 | 最湿季平均温度Mean temperature of the wettest quarter | 0.1 | |
到居民点距离Distance to village | 2.6 | 最热季平均气温Mean temperature of the warmest quarter | 0.1 | |
温度季节性Temperature seasonality | 2.5 | 最冷季降雨量Precipitation of the coldest quarter | 0 | |
最干月降水量Precipitation of the driest month | 2.3 | 最冷季平均温度Mean temperature of the coldest quarter | 0 |
表3
研究区不同气候变化情景下褐马鸡适宜生境面积及其占比"
气候变化情景 Climate change scenario | 年份 Year | 面积 Predicted area/km2 | 面积占比 Percentage of predicted area(%) | |||||
适宜区 Suitablehabitat | 中度适宜区 Moderately suitable habitat | 不适宜区 Unsuitablehabitat | 适宜区 Suitablehabitat | 中度适宜区 Moderately suitablehabitat | 不适宜区 Unsuitablehabitat | |||
当前Current | 1970—2000 | 11 964.3 | 36 933.7 | 136 491 | 6.45 | 19.92 | 73.62 | |
RCP4.5 | 2041—2060 | 21 895.1 | 60 477.2 | 103 016 | 11.81 | 32.62 | 55.57 | |
2061—2080 | 18 593.3 | 57 384.4 | 109 410 | 10.02 | 30.95 | 59.02 | ||
RCP8.5 | 2041—2060 | 18 806.7 | 55 889.6 | 110 692 | 10.14 | 30.15 | 59.71 | |
2061—2080 | 19 327.8 | 52 097.7 | 113 964 | 10.43 | 28.10 | 61.47 |
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