关键词: 森林资源, 经济增长, 扩展EKC模型, 拐点, 面板数据

Abstract:

Objectve: The aim of this study was to test the interactive relationships about environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) between forest resources and economic growth, and to explore the path to maintain the coordinated development of forest resources and economic growth. Method: Based on the theory of EKC, and regarded the per capita forest stock volume(pfsv) as the dependent variable, the constant price per capita GDP(pgdp) as independent variable and social economic factors as control variables, using the 1996-2015 provincial panel data in China, the relationships between the amount change of forest resources and economic growth were tested. In order to select the most appropriate regression model, the general EKC model and the extended EKC model with the control variables are constructed by using the panel unit root and cointegration test method, and find the time path of inflection point of each province. Result: 1) Two types of EKC model support the pfsv and pgdp present inverted N-EKC relationship, per capita forest resources along with the increase of pgdp showed the evolution process about "decline→rise→decline", but the extended EKC model fits better, and two inflection point will reach when the pgdp reached 639.79 yuan and 33 560.58 yuan, and most provinces are in the ascent phase of the EKC curve. 2) Different control variables have different influences on amount change of forest resources, the technical progress and government investment in environmental protection are positively related with forest resources growth, and can maintain the growth of forest resources effectively, but the positive correlation between industrial structure and forest resources is not significant, while the population size is negatively related to the growth of forest resources, and population growth will encroach on the growth of the forest resources. 3) Most provinces crossed the minimum inflection point to enter the uplift channel before 1990, and the time reach the maximum inflection point between different provinces is different, which is relevant with the level of economic development on the geographical spatial, and presented as the earliest in the east, followed by the middle, the latest of the west. Conclusion: It is in the rising stage of inverted N-EKC relationships between forest resources and economic growth at present. The forest resources increase with economic growth, but the growth of forest resources will reach saturation, the per capita forest resources growth will tend to be steady. Various measures can be adopted to continue to optimize the industrial structure, increase forestry investment and introduce private capital so as to avoid declining when per capita forest resources reach the maximum inflection point, and we must guide the transition to forest quality after forest quantity reach the maximum inflection point.

Key words: forest resources, economic growth, the extended EKC model, the inflection point, panel data