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林业科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (10): 134-145.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20161017

• 论文与研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

杉木人工林碳汇木材复合经济收益分析及最优轮伐期确定——基于时间序列预测模型

林卓1,2, 吴承祯1,3, 洪伟1, 洪滔1   

  1. 1. 福建农林大学林学院 福建省森林生态系统经营与过程重点实验室 福州 350002;
    2. 福建省科学技术信息研究所 福州 350003;
    3. 武夷学院生态与资源工程学院 武夷山 354300
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-13 修回日期:2016-01-07 出版日期:2016-10-25 发布日期:2016-11-09
  • 通讯作者: 吴承祯
  • 基金资助:
    福建省科技重大专项(2012NZ0001)。

Economic Benefits Analysis of Carbon Sequestration and Timber and Determination of Optimal Rotation Period for a Cunninghamia lanceolata Plantation——Based on Time Series Model

Lin Zhuo1,2, Wu Chengzhen1,3, Hong Wei1, Hong Tao1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory for Forest Ecosystem Process and Management of Fujian Province College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University Fuzhou 350002;
    2. Fujian Institute of Scientific and Technological Information Fuzhou 350003;
    3. Department of Ecology and Resource Engineering, Wuyi University Wuyishan 354300
  • Received:2015-08-13 Revised:2016-01-07 Online:2016-10-25 Published:2016-11-09

摘要: [目的] 探讨不同条件下杉木人工林碳汇木材复合经济收益及最优轮伐期的变化,为杉木经营者在碳汇交易背景下选择最优森林经营决策提供依据。[方法] 以闽西北杉木人工林为研究对象,基于实地调查数据,利用时间序列预测模型(ARIMA)对杉木人工林蓄积量和碳储量进行拟合预测,并以此为基础数据,结合相关经济指标,采用年均净现值法(ANPV)和林地期望价法(LEV)分别计算杉木人工林经济收益和最优轮伐期;同时比较分析最优轮伐期和最大经济收益对立地质量、碳价格、利率3个不确定因素变化的响应。[结果] 1)ARIMA模型对杉木人工林蓄积量和碳储量的拟合结果精度较高(预测模型中最低R2为88.460%),以此获取了有效的林分生长预测数据;2)鉴于木材价格远高于碳价格的现状(取利率5%、理论碳价格173元·t-1的情况),增加碳汇经营目标并未改变以经济成熟为标准的最优轮伐期,但碳汇木材复合经济收益明显提高,对于不同立地质量的林分,其最大经济收益增加6.55%~10.12%(ANPV)和6.60%~10.72%(LEV);3)地位指数增加、碳价格提升及利率提高,都会导致最优轮伐期不同程度地提前,但影响效果存在差异。立地质量越好,碳价格越高,复合收益就越多,当碳价格达到600元·t-1时(取利率5%),不同立地质量的林分经济收益增加25.01%~35.09%(ANPV)和22.90%~37.19%(LEV);但高利率会导致经济收益明显降低,以立地指数14~16 m为例,当碳价格为123元·t-1时,在4%利率水平下林地复合经济收益几乎是7%利率水平下的3倍。[结论] 1)基于现实林分调查数据的时间序列预测模型(ARIMA)对林分生长进行预测值得尝试和推广;2)在现有杉木经营环境下,即使增加碳汇经营目标,经营者在不改变采伐期的情况下也能获取最大复合经济收益,有利于经营者增加收入,增强其从事杉木经营的积极性;3)立地质量越好,碳汇木材复合经济收益越高,因此,选择立地条件较好的林地进行杉木造林,能提高经营者的经济收入;4)碳汇木材复合经营目标下,碳价格提高能有效提升杉木经营者的投资效益;5)利率的增加,碳汇木材复合经济收益明显降低,因此高利率不利于杉木人工林的经营。由此可见,碳汇木材复合经营对增加杉木经营者经济收益和发挥人工林碳汇潜力都具有重大的现实意义。

关键词: 森林资源评价, 碳汇收益, 经济成熟, ARIMA, 年均净现值, 林地期望价

Abstract: [Objective] Economic benefits and optimal rotation period were analyzed in consideration of carbon sequestration and timber based on survey data of sample plots for a Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) plantation in northwest of Fujian province. [Method] The stand volume and carbon storage were predicted by ARIMA time series models. And the economic benefits and optimal rotation period were calculated by using average net present value (ANPV) and land expectation value (LEV).[Result] 1)The accuracies of ARIMA models for stand volume and carbon storage were high, where the minimum R2 was only 88.460%. So the results predicted by these models were acceptable and effective.2)Under the circumstances that carbon price was much less than wood price (at 5% interest rate and 173 yuan per ton carbon price), there were no significant influences on optimal rotation period in consideration of carbon sequestration benefits, but total economic benefits including carbon sequestration and timber were increasing obviously,about 6.55%-10.12%(ANPV)and 6.60%-10.72%(LEV),respectively. 3)Raising of site index, carbon price or interest rate would lead to shortening optimal rotation period. The higher site quality and carbon price, the more economic benefits in consideration of carbon sequestration and timber. When carbon price was 600 yuan per ton (at 5% interest rate), the increasing range of benefits were 25.01%-35.09%(ANPV)and 22.90%-37.19%(LEV)in different sites, respectively. In contrast, higher interest rate would reduce economic benefits, for instance, when carbon price was 123 yuan·t-1, the total economic benefits at 4% interest rate were almost three times as much as ones at 7% interest rate (site index 14-16 m).[Conclusion] 1) It is worthy of promoting time series prediction model (ARIMA) to estimate forest growth based on survey data. 2) Under the present Chinese fir management environment, forest managers do not need to change the optimal rotation periods to obtain maximum total economic benefits including carbon sequestration and timber. It is beneficial to enhance the enthusiasm of Chinese fir operation. 3) Choosing high quality site to plant Chinese fir will increase economic benefits. 4) The higher carbon price, the more economic benefits in consideration of carbon sequestration and timber. 5) High interest rate is disadvantageous to manage Chinese fir. In conclusion, consideration of carbon sequestration and timber economic benefits will increase sharply revenues for Chinese fir managers, and it has a great significance to realizing the carbon sequestration potential of Chinese fir plantation in practice.

Key words: forest resource assessment, carbon sequestration benefit, economic mature, ARIMA, average net present value, land expectation value

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