林业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (11): 1-8.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191101
曾伟生,陈新云,杨学云
收稿日期:
2019-02-21
出版日期:
2019-11-25
发布日期:
2019-12-21
基金资助:
Weisheng Zeng,Xinyun Chen,Xueyun Yang
Received:
2019-02-21
Online:
2019-11-25
Published:
2019-12-21
Supported by:
摘要:
目的: 建立人工杨树生物量模型,分析生产力与气候因子间的关系,为提升我国森林质量提供参考。方法: 基于在全国15个省(区、市)采集的450株人工杨树样木实测地上生物量和147株地下生物量数据,综合利用哑变量建模方法和误差变量联立方程组方法,建立一元和二元立木生物量联立方程组;基于样木胸径、树高和年龄的成对数据,建立与气候因子相关的单木生长模型。根据胸径和树高单木生长模型及二元立木生物量方程,分析气候因子对人工杨树单木生产力的影响。利用全国森林资源连续清查人工杨树林样地调查数据,计算每个样地的生物量和生产力,建立人工杨树林生产力与气候因子间的相关模型,进一步验证气候因子对生产力的影响。结果: 本研究建立的一元和二元人工杨树地上生物量方程,确定系数(R2)在0.90以上,平均预估误差(MPE)在5%以内;地下生物量方程的R2在0.83以上,MPE在10%以内;含气候因子的胸径和树高单木生长模型,R2均在0.70以上,MPE分别在5%和3%以内。人工杨树的胸径、树高生长均与年均气温显著相关,林木年龄为20年,年均气温20℃时的胸径、树高和总生物量分别是年均气温0℃时的2.4、2.4和9.5倍。连清样地数据验证结果表明,年均气温提高10℃,人工杨树林的平均生产力可以提高2.5 t·hm-2a-1;年均气温20℃时的人工杨树林,其平均生产力达到年均气温0℃时的7倍以上,与所建单木生长模型的可比推算结果完全一致。结论: 本研究建立的人工杨树立木地上和地下生物量方程及其相容的生物量转换因子和根茎比模型,达到相关技术规定的预估精度要求,可以推广应用;温度是影响人工杨树生产力的重要因素,随着年均气温升高,人工杨树生产力也相应提高。
中图分类号:
曾伟生,陈新云,杨学云. 我国人工杨树生物量建模和生产力分析[J]. 林业科学, 2019, 55(11): 1-8.
Weisheng Zeng,Xinyun Chen,Xueyun Yang. Biomass Modeling and Productivity Analysis of Planted Populus spp. in China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(11): 1-8.
表1
人工杨树的立木生物量样本统计特征"
项目 Item | 样本量 Sample number | 变量 Variables | 平均值 Mean | 最小值 Min. | 最大值 Max. | 标准差 SD | 变动系数 CV(%) |
地上生物量 Aboveground biomass | 450 | 胸径DBH/cm | 16.3 | 1.4 | 39.0 | 11.6 | 71.2 |
树高Tree height/m | 12.9 | 2.5 | 31.1 | 7.2 | 55.6 | ||
年龄Age/a | 12.6 | 1.0 | 58.0 | 10.5 | 83.9 | ||
立木材积Volume/dm3 | 269.2 | 0.4 | 1 610.4 | 359.8 | 133.7 | ||
地上生物量Aboveground biomass/kg | 161.2 | 0.3 | 1 040.0 | 224.8 | 139.4 | ||
地下生物量 Belowground biomass | 147 | 胸径DBH/cm | 16.4 | 1.4 | 38.6 | 11.6 | 70.4 |
树高Tree height/m | 12.9 | 2.5 | 29.4 | 7.1 | 55.1 | ||
地上生物量Aboveground biomass/kg | 158.9 | 0.3 | 1 040.0 | 221.9 | 139.6 | ||
地下生物量Belowground biomass/kg | 31.2 | 0.1 | 189.3 | 43.1 | 138.3 |
表2
一元和二元联立方程组的参数估计值及模型评价指标"
模型 Models | 目标变量 Target variable | 参数估计值Parameter estimates | 评价指标Evaluation indices | ||||||||
a0/b0/c0 | a1/b1/c1 | a2/b2/c2 | R2 | SEE | TRE | ASE | MPE | MPSE | |||
一元 One-variable | 地上生物量Ma | 0.090 06 | 2.436 8 | / | 0.902 4 | 70.33 | 3.20 | -0.77 | 4.03 | 19.13 | |
地下生物量Mb | 0.029 61 | 2.297 3 | / | 0.830 6 | 17.82 | -2.79 | -4.06 | 9.33 | 32.94 | ||
树干材积V | 0.146 41 | 2.447 7 | / | 0.943 9 | 85.33 | 2.17 | 0.37 | 2.93 | 14.77 | ||
二元 Two-variable | 地上生物量Ma | 0.063 96 | 2.086 0 | 0.503 6 | 0.927 1 | 60.86 | 4.76 | -0.03 | 3.49 | 18.08 | |
地下生物量Mb | 0.028 81 | 2.302 5 | 0.000 0 | 0.831 0 | 17.80 | -1.78 | -2.61 | 9.32 | 33.01 | ||
树干材积V | 0.084 85 | 1.889 5 | 0.804 9 | 0.979 7 | 51.42 | 3.22 | 0.27 | 1.76 | 9.97 |
表3
胸径和树高生长模型的参数估计值及模型评价指标①"
模型 Model | 参数估计值Parameter estimates | 评价指标Evaluation indices | |||||||||||
a0 | a1 | b0 | b1 | c0 | c1 | R2 | SEE | TRE | ASE | MPE | MPSE | ||
胸径 DBH | 22.47 (13.56) | 0.751 3 (4.55) | 12.73 (6.85) | / | 0.164 7 (6.59) | 0.009 809 (4.40) | 0.724 6 | 6.14 | -0.22 | -1.85 | 4.50 | 31.04 | |
树高 Tree height | 11.92 (16.61) | 0.803 7 (10.11) | 10.61 (4.51) | -0.306 9 (2.15) | 0.278 1 (13.18) | / | 0.704 3 | 3.93 | -0.15 | -0.61 | 2.88 | 24.82 |
表4
不同年均气温条件下的单木生物量生长过程"
年龄 Age/a | 单木生物量Total biomass of individual tree/kg | ||||
T=0 | T=5 | T=10 | T=15 | T=20 | |
1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.3 |
2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 7.0 |
3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 14.3 |
4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 14.1 | 28.0 |
5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 11.6 | 25.1 | 51.7 |
6 | 2.9 | 7.7 | 18.8 | 42.4 | 89.1 |
7 | 4.1 | 11.7 | 29.6 | 68.0 | 142.6 |
8 | 5.8 | 17.2 | 44.7 | 103.0 | 211.4 |
9 | 7.9 | 24.6 | 64.8 | 146.9 | 291.1 |
10 | 10.7 | 34.1 | 89.7 | 197.9 | 374.7 |
11 | 14.3 | 46.0 | 119.0 | 252.5 | 455.1 |
12 | 18.6 | 60.2 | 151.4 | 307.2 | 526.9 |
13 | 23.8 | 76.3 | 185.4 | 358.5 | 587.3 |
14 | 29.8 | 94.1 | 219.1 | 404.1 | 635.9 |
15 | 36.6 | 112.8 | 251.2 | 443.1 | 673.6 |
16 | 44.2 | 131.9 | 280.5 | 475.1 | 702.1 |
17 | 52.4 | 150.7 | 306.3 | 500.8 | 723.3 |
18 | 61.2 | 168.8 | 328.5 | 520.9 | 738.8 |
19 | 70.3 | 185.6 | 347.1 | 536.4 | 750.1 |
20 | 79.6 | 200.9 | 362.3 | 548.2 | 758.2 |
21 | 88.9 | 214.6 | 374.7 | 557.2 | 764.1 |
22 | 98.0 | 226.6 | 384.7 | 563.9 | 768.3 |
23 | 106.7 | 236.9 | 392.6 | 568.9 | 771.3 |
24 | 115.1 | 245.8 | 398.8 | 572.6 | 773.5 |
25 | 122.9 | 253.3 | 403.6 | 575.4 | 775.0 |
26 | 130.1 | 259.6 | 407.4 | 577.4 | 776.1 |
27 | 136.8 | 264.8 | 410.4 | 578.9 | 776.9 |
28 | 142.8 | 269.1 | 412.7 | 580.0 | 777.5 |
29 | 148.2 | 272.6 | 414.4 | 580.9 | 777.9 |
30 | 153.0 | 275.6 | 415.8 | 581.5 | 778.2 |
31 | 157.2 | 277.9 | 416.8 | 581.9 | 778.4 |
32 | 160.9 | 279.9 | 417.6 | 582.2 | 778.6 |
33 | 164.2 | 281.5 | 418.3 | 582.5 | 778.7 |
34 | 167.1 | 282.7 | 418.7 | 582.7 | 778.7 |
35 | 169.5 | 283.8 | 419.1 | 582.8 | 778.8 |
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