资本异质性视角下林业投入劳动集约的成因分析——基于9省区林农数据的联立方程MV Tobit估计

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191011

林业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (10): 99-110.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191011

资本异质性视角下林业投入劳动集约的成因分析——基于9省区林农数据的联立方程MV Tobit估计

李艳¹,刘璨²,杨红强³,宁攸凉⁴,何文剑⁵,张寒^1,*

1. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院杨凌 712100
2. 国家林业和草原局经济发展研究中心北京 100714
3. 南京林业大学经济管理学院南京 210037
4. 中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所北京 100091
5. 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院南京 210044

收稿日期:2019-05-27 出版日期:2019-10-25 发布日期:2019-11-26
通讯作者: 张寒
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目"集体林权制度改革对农户营林投入的影响机理及效应评价"(71873099);青年项目"基于双内生视角的非农就业对林地流转的影响研究——以福建、江西、云南集体林区为例"(71403213);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"集体林权制度改革对农户营林投入的影响研究：基于产权激励、劳动配置和要素替代的视角"(18YJA790104);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费人文社科项目"集体林权制度改革对农户林地投入的效应评价及提升路径研究"(2018RWSK06)

Causes for Labor Intensives on Forestland Inputs from the Perspective of Capital Heterogeneities: A Simultaneous-Equation MV Tobit Estimation Based on Households Data from 9 Provinces

Yan Li¹,Can Liu²,Hongqiang Yang³,Youliang Ning⁴,Wenjian He⁵,Han Zhang^1,*

1. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University Yangling 712100
2. Economic Development Research Centre, National Forestry and Grassland Administration Beijing 100714
3. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing 210037
4. Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing 100091
5. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044

Received:2019-05-27 Online:2019-10-25 Published:2019-11-26
Contact: Han Zhang
Supported by:
国家自然科学基金面上项目"集体林权制度改革对农户营林投入的影响机理及效应评价"(71873099);青年项目"基于双内生视角的非农就业对林地流转的影响研究——以福建、江西、云南集体林区为例"(71403213);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"集体林权制度改革对农户营林投入的影响研究：基于产权激励、劳动配置和要素替代的视角"(18YJA790104);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费人文社科项目"集体林权制度改革对农户林地投入的效应评价及提升路径研究"(2018RWSK06)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 分析农户营林要素投入关系，揭示林业投入被锁定在劳动集约状态的成因，为提高农户营林积极性、促进林地经营向资本集约演进提供决策参考。方法: 基于资本异质性视角，构建林农劳动与资本投入关系的理论分析框架，并利用国家林业和草原局经济发展研究中心的全国9省区农户调查数据进行实证检验。考虑到投入决策的联合性、内生性及数据截尾性，模型估计采用改进的Nelon-Olson两阶段方法。该方法保留了Nelson-Olson方法两阶段的特征，但采用MV Tobit方法进行参数估计，以考察扰动项的联合相关，提高估计效率。结果: 联立方程的估计结果显示，劳动和资本总体上呈现显著性互补关系。但二者关系依资本异质性存在结构性差异，即劳动与增产性资本具有显著的互补关系，而劳动与省工性资本呈现不显著的替代关系，这与Hayami-Ruttan的诱致性技术变迁理论的预期并不完全一致。进一步分析发现，林业资本投入中省工性资本占比较低、林业社会化服务体系不健全、林地地形复杂等因素，弱化了省工性资本的替代性，是造成省工性资本与劳动投入关系不显著的重要成因。这种不显著使得增产性资本与劳动的互补性占据主导地位，由此使得劳动和资本整体表现出互补关系。此外，非农就业部门的工资对农户投入决策具有显著的负向影响；而木材价格的资源调配功能并未发挥显著性作用。结论: 农户营林的资本和劳动投入总体上呈现互补性关系，这与二者在农业投入中表现出的替代关系相反。这种相反性与林地经营的特点密切相关，也反映出已有的基于农地经营的结论不能照搬应用于林地经营决策。这一反常现象可为解释集体林权制度改革后林地投入未从劳动集约向资本集约转化提供一个有益视角。具体而言，农户营林的资本和劳动投入整体呈现互补性关系，导致林地经营劳动集约的固有形态被长期锁定，难以沿着Hayami-Ruttan诱致性技术变迁理论的预期路径向资本集约的高级形态演化。以上结论对提高农户营林积极性、促进林业劳动集约化向资本集约转化具有重要的政策内涵。国家长期致力于农业社会化服务水平的建设，对林业社会化服务缺乏应有的重视和扶持。在当前集体林权的配套改革阶段，建立健全林业社会化服务体系迫在眉睫。

关键词: 劳动集约, 要素替代, 增产性资本, 省工性资本, 改进的Nelson-Olson估计

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to analyze the input structure of forest farmers' factors, in order to reveal the reasons why the investment in forestry is always targeted at labor-intensive sectors, in order to provide decision-making support to improve farmers' incentives on forestland management and stimulate the transition from labor intensive to capital intensive. Method: Based on the perspective of capital heterogeneities, this paper establishes a theoretical framework on the relationship between labor and capital investment on forestland. Then, a household survey dataset is employed to examine the hypotheses, which covers 9 provinces and is conducted by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration. Since the features of joint interdependence, endogeneity and censoring, this study adopted the modified Nelson-Olson two stage approach to study the relationship between capital and labor input and its influencing factors. The modified technique combines the Nelson-Olson approach and the MV Tobit method, in order to improve the estimation efficiency.Result: The estimation results showed that the coefficients of labor and the whole capital were significantly positive, reflecting the significant complementary relationship between them. However, the relationship is dependent on capital's heterogeneities. In detail, the relationship between labor and yield-incremental capital is significantly complementary, while it is substituted for labor and labor-saving capital. However, the substitution relationship is not significant, which is not in line with the expected path of Hayami-Ruttan's technological change. Further investigations showed that the substitution between labor and labor-saving capital would be weakened by three factors, i.e., the low ratio of labor-saving capital, the unsound social service system in forestry and the varied topography of forestland. This weakness would lead to the dominance of the complementary relationship between yield-incremental capital and labor, which is the main reason of why labor and the total capital are complementary. In addition, the wage in off-farm sector has a negative effect on farmers' investment decision, while the role of timber price is not significant. Objective: There is a complementary relationship between labor and capital investment on forestland, which is opposite to that on farmland. This relationship is mainly caused by the nature of forestland management, and reflects that the findings on farmland cannot be directly used on forestland decisions. This unusual relationship would provide a useful perspective on why forestland investment is not evolved from labor-intensive to capital-intensive. In detail, the complementary relationship between total capital and labor means that forestland investment would be labor-intensive. It cannot be evolved into a capital-intensive along the expected path of Hayami-Ruttan's technological change. These findings are beneficial to improve farmers' incentives on forestland management and stimulate an evolution of factor inputs from labor intensive to capital intensive. Currently, the social service system in agriculture has been emphasized deeply, which is not the case in forestry. Therefore, in the follow-up tenure reform, it is emergent to establish a sound social service system, especially on the development of mechanization in forestry sector.

Key words: labor-intensive, factor substitution, yield-incremental capital, labor-saving capital, modified Nelson-Olson estimates

中图分类号:

F307.2

李艳,刘璨,杨红强,宁攸凉,何文剑,张寒. 资本异质性视角下林业投入劳动集约的成因分析——基于9省区林农数据的联立方程MV Tobit估计[J]. 林业科学, 2019, 55(10): 99-110.

Yan Li,Can Liu,Hongqiang Yang,Youliang Ning,Wenjian He,Han Zhang. Causes for Labor Intensives on Forestland Inputs from the Perspective of Capital Heterogeneities: A Simultaneous-Equation MV Tobit Estimation Based on Households Data from 9 Provinces[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(10): 99-110.

图/表 5

图1

表1

变量定义与描述性统计①"

变量 Variable	变量定义 Variable definition	总体均值 Population mean	林改前均值 Mean value before reform	林改后均值 Mean value after reform	t统计量 t statistic
被解释变量Dependent variables
劳动Labor/(d·hm^-2)	单位面积林地投入有效劳动天数Effective working days per hectare of forestland	60.75(18.45)	49.51(14.40)	63.02(0.15)	2.21^**
资本Capital/(yuan·hm^-2)	单位面积林地投入的资金 Cash input per hectare of forestland	638.55(208.65)	598.48(161.55)	643.51(214.51)	0.64
省工性资本Labor-saving capital/(yuan·hm^-2)	单位面积林地投入的机械费用 Machinery input per hectare of forestland	245.25(99.15)	204.75(84.45)	249.75(101.10)	4.29^***
增产性资本Yield-incremental capital/(yuan·hm^-2)	单位面积林地投入的种苗、化肥、农药费用之和The sum of seed, fertilizer and pesticide input per hectare of forestland	393.75(171.15)	393.75(116.71)	393.60(177.61)	-0.01
解释变量Independent variables
价格因素Price factors
林木价格Timber price/(yuan·m^-3)	当地林木市场木材平均价格 Average timber price in local market	427.0(97.24)	313.65(54.53)	443.3(90.98)	77.90^***
工资水平Wage/(yuan·d^-1)	当地农户平均每天的工资 Average local wages per day	48.97(19.42)	38.72(16.63)	50.43(19.35)	24.99^***
政策因素Policy factors
集体林改Collective forest tenure reform	集体林改是否完成(是=1，否=0)Whether the collective forest reform has been completed (yes=1, no=0)	0.87(0.33)	0.00(0.00)	1.00(0.00)	—
林地特征Forestland characteristics
林地面积Forestland area/hm²	农户经营的林地总面积 Total area of forestland managed by households	2.33(4.45)	1.32(3.39)	2.47(0.43)	11.77^***
细碎化程度Fragmentation degree/(hm²·piece^-1)	林地块均面积 Average area per forestland	0.65(1.33)	0.38(0.87)	0.69(1.39)	11.73^***
户主特征Household characteristics
文化程度Education/a	户主受教育年限 Schooling years of householder	7.35(2.76)	7.361 (2.59)	7.350 (2.79)	-0.15
年龄Age/a	户主年龄Householder age	51.08(10.91)	46.033 (10.75)	51.798 (10.74)	19.43^***
家庭特征Family characteristics
家庭总收入Total income/10³yuan	家庭年现金总收入Household’s annual cash income	23.12(30.86)	13.62(16.48)	24.55(32.17)	20.66^***
干部Cadre	家庭成员是否干部(是=1，否=0)Whether family member is cadre (yes=1, no=0)	0.25(0.43)	0.25(0.44)	0.25(0.43)	-0.27
家庭人口数Household size/person	家庭总人口数Family population	3.98(1.21)	4.11(1.19)	3.96(1.21)	-3.66^***
村级特征Village characteristics
道路状况Road	路面是否硬化(是=1，否=0) Whether the pavement is hardened(yes=1, no=0)	0.72(0.45)	0.58(0.49)	0.74(0.44)	12.06^***
山区Mountain	是否处在山区(是=1，否=0) Whether village is in mountain area (yes=1, no=0)	0.56(0.50)	0.53(0.50)	0.56(0.50)	2.39^**
到县城距离Distance to county/km	村庄至最近县城的距离 Distance between village and the nearest county	35.14(30.83)	35.07(29.74)	35.15(30.98)	0.11

表1

表2

表3

表4

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解释变量 Independent variables	被解释变量Dependent variable
	改进的Nelson-Olson两阶段法 Modified Nelson-Olson two stage approach		平均偏效应 Average partial effects(APE)
	劳动Labor	资本Capital	劳动Labor	资本Capital
劳动Labor	—	9.833^***(2.545)	—	2.353^***(0.609)
资本Capital	0.020^**(0.008)	—	0.006^**(0.002)	—
林木价格Timber price	0.006 (0.008)	0.176 (0.179)	0.002 (0.002)	0.042 (0.043)
工资水平Wage	-0.152^***(0.049)	-1.290^*(0.752)	-0.044^***(0.014)	-0.309^*(0.178)
集体林改 Collective forest tenure reform	7.100^***(1.693)	6.597^**(2.990)	2.073^***(0.494)	1.578^**(0.715)
林地面积Forestland area	0.039^***(0.007)	0.280^***(0.077)	0.011^***(0.002)	0.067^***(0.018)
细碎化程度 Fragmentation degree	-0.050^***(0.014)	0.164 (0.236)	-0.015^***(0.004)	0.039 (0.056)
文化程度Education	0.184 (0.130)	2.484 (2.196)	0.054 (0.038)	0.594 (0.527)
年龄Age	-0.082^***(0.031)	-0.584 (0.579)	-0.024^***(0.009)	-0.140 (0.138)
家庭总收入Total income	-0.027^***(0.010)	0.749^***(0.148)	-0.008^***(0.003)	0.179^***(0.035)
干部Cadre	-1.963^***(0.729)	3.706^***(1.230)	-0.573^***(0.212)	0.887^***(0.294)
家庭人口数Household size	0.490^**(0.194)	1.092 (3.725)	0.143^**(0.057)	0.261 (0.892)
道路状况Road	-2.930^***(0.955)	2.732 (14.169)	-0.856^***(0.279)	0.654 (3.39)
是否山区Mountain	-1.326 (1.081)	3.096^**(1.493)	-0.387 (0.315)	0.741^**(0.356)
到县城距离 Distance to county	0.032^*(0.018)	-0.226 (0.326)	0.009^*(0.005)	-0.054 (0.078)
常数项Constant term	-4.692 (7.685)	404.644^***(65.864)	—	—
乡镇虚拟变量联合检验 Joint test of town virtual variables	788.020^***
年份虚拟变量联合检验 Joint test of year virtual variables	28.600^***
跨方程联合相关性检验 Joint correlation test for trans-equation
ρ	17.160^***(0.031)
似然比统计量 Likelihood ratio statistic(LR)	2 288.620^***

解释变量 Independent variables	被解释变量Dependent variables
	改进的Nelson-Olson两阶段法 Modified Nelson-Olson two stage approach		APE
	劳动 Labor	增产性资本 Yield-incremental capital	劳动 Labor	增产性资本 Yield-incremental capital
劳动Labor	—	5.673^**(2.278)	—	1.263^**(0.507)
增产性资本 Yield-incremental capital	0.035^***(0.009)	—	0.010^***(0.003)	—
林木价格Timber price	0.005 (0.007)	-0.643 (0.657)	0.001 (0.002)	-0.143 (0.146)
工资水平Wage	-0.146^***(0.049)	-0.147^**(0.073)	-0.043^***(0.014)	-0.033^**(0.016)
集体林改 Collective forest tenure reform	7.222^***(1.688)	6.310^**(2.680)	2.109^***(0.492)	1.405^**(0.597)
林地面积Forestland area	0.033^***(0.006)	0.313^***(0.072)	0.010^***(0.002)	0.07^***(0.016)
细碎化程度 Fragmentation degree	0.043^***(0.014)	-0.094 (0.195)	0.013^***(0.004)	-0.021 (0.043)
文化程度Education	0.175 (0.125)	1.515 (2.003)	0.051 (0.037)	0.337 (0.448)
年龄Age	-0.070^**(0.031)	-0.731 (0.498)	-0.02^**(0.009)	-0.163 (0.111)
家庭总收入Total income	-0.016^*(0.008)	0.140 (0.094)	-0.005^*(0.002)	0.031 (0.021)
干部Cadre	-1.814^***(0.694)	17.232 (10.727)	-0.530^***(0.202)	3.836 (2.388)
家庭人口数Household size	-0.404^**(0.199)	6.229^*(3.469)	-0.118^**(0.058)	1.387^*(0.772)
道路状况Road	-2.421^**(0.947)	-10.641 (12.425)	-0.707^**(0.276)	-2.369 (2.766)
是否山区Mountain	-0.565 (1.042)	0.798 (12.136)	-0.165 (0.304)	0.178 (2.688)
到县城距离 Distance to county	0.037^**(0.018)	-0.238 (0.309)	0.011^**(0.005)	-0.053 (0.069)
常数项Constant term	1.460 (3.932)	52.912 (44.595)	—	—
乡镇虚拟变量联合检验 Joint test of town virtual variables	517.720^***
年份虚拟变量联合检验 Joint test of year virtual variables	36.210^***
跨方程联合相关性检验 Joint correlation test for trans-equation
ρ	15.54^***(0.034)
LR	2 129.37^***

	被解释变量Dependent variables
解释变量 Independent variables	改进的Nelson-Olson两阶段法 Modified Nelson-Olson two stage approach		APE
解释变量 Independent variables	劳动 Labor	省工性资本 Labor-saving capital	劳动 Labor	省工性资本 Labor-saving capital
劳动Labor	—	-6.826 (4.342)	—	-1.094 (0.693)
省工性资本 Labor-saving capital	-0.041 (0.056)	—	-0.012 (0.016)	—
林木价格Timber price	0.007 (0.007)	-0.147 (0.183)	0.002 (0.002)	-0.024 (0.029)
工资水平Wage	-0.146^***(0.048)	1.981^**(0.783)	-0.043^***(0.014)	0.318^**(0.126)
集体林改 Collective forest tenure reform	4.080^**(1.620)	7.188^***(1.884)	1.191^***(0.472)	1.152^***(0.301)
林地面积Forestland area	0.019^***(0.005)	0.474^***(0.105)	0.006^***(0.001)	0.076^***(0.017)
细碎化程度 Fragmentation degree	0.050^***(0.014)	0.178 (0.232)	0.015 (0.004)	0.029 (0.037)
文化程度Education	0.040 (0.120)	3.592 (2.195)	0.012 (0.035)	0.576 (0.353)
年龄Age	-0.044 (0.031)	-1.486^**(0.599)	-0.013 (0.009)	-0.238^**(0.096)
家庭总收入Total income	-0.063^***(0.012)	1.120^***(0.173)	-0.018^***(0.003)	0.180^***(0.028)
干部Cadre	-2.999^***(0.714)	4.528^***(1.180)	-0.876^***(0.206)	0.726^***(0.189)
家庭人口数Household size	0.958^***(0.240)	-7.622^**(3.485)	0.280^***(0.070)	-1.222^**(0.559)
道路状况Road	-2.904^***(0.847)	3.020 (14.690)	-0.848^***(0.247)	0.484 (2.355)
是否山区Mountain	3.001^***(1.098)	-6.325^***(1.646)	0.876^***(0.320)	-1.014^***(0.264)
到县城距离 Distance to county	0.028 (0.017)	-0.117 (0.339)	0.008 (0.005)	-0.019 (0.054)
常数项Constant term	-4.212 (5.562)	423.760^***(88.561)	—	—
乡镇虚拟变量联合检验 Joint test of town virtual variables	1 082.430^***
年份虚拟变量联合检验 Joint test of year virtual variables	56.270^***
跨方程联合相关性检验 Joint correlation test for trans-equation
ρ	14.270^***(0.020)
LR	362.188^***

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