不同贫困程度农户林权抵押贷款收入效应与贷款行为及其影响因素分析——基于702户农户调查数据的实证

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 探究林权抵押贷款的收入效应，明确贫困农户林权抵押贷款行为及其影响因素，为完善基于扶贫目标的林权抵押贷款政策提供参考。方法: 基于全国5省702户农户调查数据，采用处理效应模型研究林权抵押贷款对农户农业收入的影响，利用双变量Probit模型分析不同贫困程度农户的林权抵押贷款行为及其影响因素。结果: 林权抵押贷款可显著提升农户农业收入水平，一般贫困农户农业收入增加幅度最大，生产性固定资产对农业收入影响显著；不同贫困程度农户林权抵押贷款参与程度均较低，其林权抵押贷款需求及可获得性影响因素存在差异，其中，有家人生大病对重度贫困农户贷款需求具有显著正向影响，林业补贴政策认知对非贫困农户林权抵押贷款需求具有显著负向影响，有家人在政府部门工作、养殖业收入比例对非贫困农户获得信贷资金支持具有显著正向影响，生产性固定资产对一般贫困农户获得信贷资金支持具有显著正向影响，对非贫困农户获得信贷资金支持具有显著负向影响。结论: 林权抵押贷款增收效果明显，但当前林权抵押贷款的扶贫功能不明显，农户林权抵押贷款的可获得性低，贫困农户林权抵押贷款需求不高。林权抵押贷款政策要适应林业扶贫战略新需要，要拓展和提升林权抵押贷款功能和绩效，必须建立和完善基于扶贫目标的林权抵押贷款产品设计与精准帮扶模式，着力提升贫困农户承贷能力，切实提高贫困农户贷款可得性水平，完善林权抵押贷款扶贫多元合作长效运行机制，合力推进林权抵押贷款政策的扶贫功能及绩效的拓展和全面提升。

关键词: 贫困农户, 林权抵押贷款, 处理效应模型, 双变量Probit模型

Abstract:

Objective: This paper tried to clear the income effects of access to forest property rights mortgage loan (FPRM), the participation of poor households and its influencing factors. The conclusion were expected to provide references for improving the FPRM policies targeting poverty alleviation. Method: Based on the survey data of 702 households from 5 province in China, this paper used the treatment effect model to analyze its effect on household agriculture income, then applied the bivariate Probit model to analyze different poor households' loan behaviors with the FPRM and its influencing factors.Result: The impacts of access to FPRM were obviously positive, more sensitive for the general poor, and productive fixed assets had a significant impact on agriculture revenue. The participation of different poor households in loan were weak, and its influencing factors were different, to be specific, in terms of demand for FPRM, families get sick or not had merely significant positive impacts on the severely poor, while, the cognition of the forestry subsidy policy had significant negative impacts on the non-poor, in terms of the availability of FPRM, having families worked in government agency or not and the proportion of breeding revenue had merely significant positive impacts on the non-poor, productive fixed assets had significant positive impacts on the general poor, but negative impacts on the non-poor. Objective: The income effect of FPRM was obvious, but it was not clear the FPRM policies helped the poor to alleviate poverty, the availability of FPRM was at a low level, and the demand of the poor were not high. Therefore, to adapting to the new needs of the strategy of helping the poor to alleviate poverty, extending the function of FPRM and improving its performance, we should create and improve the design of FPRM products and precise assistance modes targeting poverty alleviation, enhance the ability of poor farmers to undertake loans which could raise their loan availability, improve the long-term multiple cooperative operation mechanism of FPRM for poverty alleviation which could extend the function of FPRM policies and promote its performances from all-round.

Key words: poor farmers, forest property rights mortgage loan, treatment effect model, bivariate Probit model

中图分类号:

F307.2

孔凡斌,阮华,廖文梅. 不同贫困程度农户林权抵押贷款收入效应与贷款行为及其影响因素分析——基于702户农户调查数据的实证[J]. 林业科学, 2019, 55(10): 111-123.

Fanbin Kong,Hua Ruan,Wenmei Liao. Income Effects and Influence Factors of Different Poor Rural Households' Loan Behavior with Forest Property Rights Mortgage——Based on 702 Households' Survey Data from 5 Provinces in China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(10): 111-123.

图/表 6

表1

变量定义及描述性统计"

变量符号 Symbol	变量名 Variable	变量说明 Variable explanation	均值 Means	标准差 Standard deviation
X1	务农劳动力比例The proportion of farming labour(%)	实际调查数据The actual survey data	0.826	0.236
X2	耕地面积The area of arable land/hm²	实际调查数据The actual survey data	0.326	5.106
X3	林地面积The area of forest land/hm²	实际调查数据The actual survey data	2.765	52.494
X4	生产性固定资产Fixed assert for agricultural production	截至2008年底，家庭拥有的生产性固定资产值The value of fixed assert for agricultural production until 2008 1= < 2 000；2=2 000~5 000；3=>5 000	1.446	0.724
X5	种植业收入比例The proportion of planting revenue(%)	实际调查数据The actual survey data	0.288	0.333
X6	养殖业收入比例The proportion of breeding revenue(%)	实际调查数据The actual survey data	0.138	0.259
X7	是否有家人在政府部门工作Family members worked in government sector or not	1=有；0=没有 1=Yes；0=No	0.244	0.430
X8	是否有家人生大病Families get sick or not	1=有；0=没有 1=Yes；0=No	0.110	0.313
X9	林业补贴政策认知The cognition of the forestry subsidy policy	1=了解；0=不了解 1=Yes；0=No	0.645	0.479
X10	户主年龄Householder ’s age	1= < 30；2=30~39；3=40~49；4=50~59；5=>60	3.463	1.012
X11	户主受教育程度Householder’s education	1=小学及以下文化；2=初中文化；3=高中文化；4=大专及以上文化Primary and below=1；Junior=2；Senior=3；College and above=4	1.634	0.653
X12	家庭人口数量Quantity of families	1=1~3；2=4~6；3=7~10	1.758	0.559
X13	家庭人口负担Family population burden(%)	家庭人口抚养比例The number of the children and the elders for one labor to support	0.592	0.678
X14	农户生活所在地The region where farmers located	1=辽宁；2=浙江、福建；3=江西；4=四川 1=Liaoning；2=Zhejiang and Fujian；3=Jiangxi；4=Sichuan	2.803	0.972

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

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变量符号 Symbol	获得贷款农户 Households attained loan	未获得贷款农户 Households not attained loan	同方差F检验 F test for homoscedasticity	均值差异t检验 t test with equal variance
Y	3.330	1.666	3.954^***	1.664^**
X1	0.862	0.822	1.019	0.040
X2	5.608	4.807	1.862^***	0.801
X3	61.456	39.333	1.744^***	22.123^***
X4	1.485	1.442	1.187	0.043
X5	0.287	0.288	0.884	-0.001
X6	0.199	0.131	1.739^***	0.068^**
X7	0.426	0.224	1.426^**	0.202^***
X10	3.191	3.492	0.813	-0.301^**
X11	1.750	1.621	1.413^**	0.129
X12	1.853	1.748	0.674^**	0.105
X13	0.758	0.575	1.236	0.183^**
X14	2.721	2.812	0.970	-0.091

农户贫困程度 The level of poverty	样本数 Samples’ number	存在林权抵押贷款需求的农户数Number of households with demand	贷款需求率 Demand rate(%)	获得林权抵押贷款农户数 Number of households attained loan	贷款满足率 Attained rate(%)
非贫困Non-poor	300	225	75.00	33	14.67
一般贫困General poor	198	149	75.25	19	12.75
重度贫困Severely poor	204	133	65.20	16	12.03
合计Sum	702	507	72.22	68	13.41

项目Item	选择方程Select equation	收入方程Revenue equation
是否获得林权抵押贷款Attained loan or not	—	7.987^***
家庭务农劳动力比例The proportion of farming labour(X1)	—	0.377
耕地面积The area of arable land(X2)	—	0.032
林地面积The area of forest land(X3)	0.025	0.107
生产性固定资产Fixed assert for agricultural production(X4)	-0.306^***	1.224^***
种植业收入比例The proportion of planting revenue(X5)	1.875^***	—
养殖业收入比例The proportion of breeding revenue(X6)	1.723^***	—
是否有家人在政府部门工作Family members worked in government sector or not(X7)	0.049	—
户主年龄Householder ’s age(X10)	-0.023	0.025
户主受教育程度Householder’s education(X11)	-0.057	0.235
家庭人口数量Quantity of families(X12)	0.102	-0.147
家庭人口负担Family population burden(X13)	-0.077	-0.083
农户生活所在地The region where farmers located(X14)	-0.092^*	0.168
常数项Con.	-1.089^***	3.297^***
内生性检验P值Endogenous test P value	0.000
样本数Obs	702

项目Item	农业收入Agricultural revenue		ATE	t值t value	变化Vary
项目Item	获得贷款 Attained loan	未获得贷款 Notattained loan	ATE	t值t value	变化Vary
全样本 Total sample	14.581 (1.052)	6.472 (0.971)	8.109^***	-60.822	1.253
非贫困农户 Non-poor	14.476 (0.984)	6.593 (1.016)	7.883^***	-43.247	1.196
一般贫困农户 General poor	14.799 (1.210)	6.381 (0.947)	8.418^***	-29.379	1.319
重度贫困农户 Severely poor	14.537 (1.018)	6.388 (0.911)	8.149^***	-30.992	1.276

变量Variable	非贫困农户Non-poor		一般贫困农户General poor		重度贫困农户Severely poor
变量Variable	需求方程DE系数Coef	供给方程SE系数Coef	需求方程DE系数Coef	供给方程SE系数Coef	需求方程DE系数Coef	供给方程SE系数Coef
林地面积The area of forest land(X3)	-0.040	0.234^***	-0.015	-0.005	0.041	0.181^*
生产性固定资产Fixed assert for agricultural production(X4)	-0.407^***	-0.240^*	0.109	0.304^*	-0.201	0.253
种植业收入比例The proportion of planting revenue(X5)	0.869^***	0.414	-0.016	-0.285	-0.189	-0.415
养殖业收入比例The proportion of breeding revenue(X6)	0.512	0.843^**	-0.697	0.033	0.128	0.618
是否有家人在政府部门工作Family members worked in government sector or not(X7)	0.284	0.815^***	-0.097	0.245	0.220	0.121
是否有家人生大病Families get sick or not(X8)	-0.031	—	-0.211	—	0.587^*	—
林业补贴政策认知The cognition of forestry subsidy policy(X9)	-0.345^*	—	-0.269	—	-0.196	—
户主年龄Householder ’s age(X10)	-0.155	-0.007	-0.263^**	-0.225	-0.003	-0.283^**
户主受教育程度Householder’s education(X11)	0.247^*	-0.058	0.184	0.157	0.186	0.045
家庭人口数量Quantity of families(X12)	0.054	0.175	-0.243	0.336	-0.048	-0.072
家庭人口负担Family population burden(X13)	0.226^*	0.106	0.037	0.108	0.166	0.051
农户生活所在地The region where farmers located(X14)	0.266^***	-0.084	0.097	-0.121	0.136	-0.149
常数Con.	0.463	-2.167^**	1.671^**	-1.651^*	-0.056	-1.052
rho	0.991^***		0.981^***		0.943^*
Log like	-226.501		-154.164		-167.363
样本数Obs	300		198		204