基于3-PG模型的长白落叶松生物量生长预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210307

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 基于3-PG模型预测长白落叶松生物量生长变化，为长白落叶松林分生长规律研究提供依据。方法: 以5块长白落叶松密度试验林连续28年监测数据和24块长白落叶松固定样地3期调查数据为基础，结合各组分（叶、干和根）生物量计算公式，获得每块样地不同调查时间的密度、胸径、蓄积和各组分生物量。根据密度试验林数据校正模型生理参数，结合立地参数和气象参数，通过参数率定、迭代拟合与敏感性分析方法确定长白落叶松3-PG模型的生理参数。采用决定系数（R²）、平均误差（ME）、平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均相对误差（MRE）和均方根误差（RMSE）评价模型预测能力。选取冠层量子效率（alpha）和初级生物量分配到根的最小值（pRn）进行敏感性分析，并预测肥力等级（FR）为0.2、0.4和0.6时长白落叶松生物量生长变化趋势。结果: 1）3-PG模型预测值与实测值之间R²在0.77以上；除叶干生物量比为25.6%外，其他各指标的MRE绝对值均在10.97%以内，预测结果较可靠；2）alpha和pRn具有较高敏感性，是模型的关键参数；3）模型预测不同FR下的长白落叶松生物量变化符合树木生长机理过程，且各组分生物量随FR增加而增加。结论: 基于地面数据的参数率定后，3-PG模型能够很好模拟长白落叶松生物量生长变化，可作为一种有效的森林经营预测工具。对于长白落叶松3-PG模型，冠层量子效率（alpha）和初级生物量分配到根的最小值（pRn）是影响预测结果的关键参数。

关键词: 长白落叶松, 3-PG模型, 敏感性分析, 生物量

Abstract:

Objective: This study was executed to predict the biomass growth of Larix olgensis based on 3-PG model in order to provide the basis for studying its growth rules. Method: The data used in this article was obtained from 5 plots of experimental forests continuously observed for 28 years and 24 plots with 3 re-measurements. The stem density, DBH(diameter at breast height), volume and biomass of each plot in different times were calculated using the biomass calculation formula for each component (leaf, stem and root). The physiological parameters of the 3-PG model of L. olgensis were calibrated by density data. And the parameter values were determined based on soil data and meteorological data through parameter calibration, iterative fitting and sensitivity analysis. The result accuracy was examined by calculating coefficient of determination (R²), mean error(ME), mean absolute error(MAE), mean relative error(MRE), and root mean square error(RMSE). Two factors, the canopy quantum efficiency(alpha) and minimum biomass fraction of NPP to roots (pRn), were chosen to procced sensitivity analysis. Then, the growth biomass of L. olgensis was predicted under the conditions of the fertility ratings(FR) being 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6. Result: 1) The prediction results were reliable and the coefficient of determination (R²) was above 0.77. The absolute values of MRE of all the other indicators were within 10.97%, except for the foliage to stem biomass ratio with a value of 25.6%. 2) The sensitivity analysis showed that alpha and pRn were the key parameters of the model with high sensitivities. 3) The predicted biomass growth in this study was consistent with the growth mechanisms of plants under different FRs. At the same time, the biomass of larch was increased with the growth of FR. Conclusion: After the parameter calibration based on field data, the 3-PG model could simulate the biomass growth of L. olgensis well and be used as an effective forest management tool. For the 3-PG model of L. olgensis, alpha and pRn might be the key parameters affecting the prediction results.

Key words: Larix olgensis, 3-PG model, sensitivity analysis, biomass

中图分类号:

S757

夏晓运,庞勇,黄庆丰,吴荣,陈东升,白羽. 基于3-PG模型的长白落叶松生物量生长预测[J]. 林业科学, 2021, 57(3): 67-78.

Xiaoyun Xia,Yong Pang,Qingfeng Huang,Rong Wu,Dongsheng Chen,Yu Bai. Prediction of Biomass Growth of Larix olgensis Based on 3-PG Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(3): 67-78.

图/表 10

表1

图1

表2

表3

长白落叶松3-PG模型关键参数"

类型Indicators	参数Parameter	值Value	来源Source
异速生长关系与分配 Allometric relationships and partitioning	胸径2 cm时叶干生物量比 Foliage to stem biomass ratio at DBH = 2 cm	0.5	拟合值Fitted
	胸径20 cm时叶干生物量分配比 Foliage: stem biomass ratio at DBH = 20 cm	0.4	拟合值Fitted
	干生物量与胸径关系中常数 Constant in the stem biomass v. DBH relationship	0.096 3	黄兴召(2014)
	干生物量与胸径关系中指数 Power in the stem biomass v. DBH relationship	2.443	黄兴召(2014)
	初级生物量分配到根的最大值 Maximum biomass fraction of NPP to roots	0.4	拟合值Fitted
	初级生物量分配到根的最小值 Minimum biomass fraction of NPP to roots	0.2	拟合值Fitted
凋落物与根更新 Litterfall and root turnover	最大凋落物速率 Maximum litterfall rate	0.033	拟合值Fitted
	林龄为0时的凋落物速率 Litterfall rate at age = 0	0.001	默认值Default
	凋落率中间值时的林龄 Age at which litterfall rate has median value	24	拟合值Fitted
	根的月平均凋落速率 Average monthly root turnover rate	0.007	拟合值Fitted
树龄调节 Age modifier	植物生长最大林龄 Maximum stand age used in age modifier	100	拟合值Fitted
	计算林龄对于生长关系式中相对林龄的指数 Power of relative age in function for f_age	5	拟合值Fitted
	林龄对生长影响等于0.5时的相对林龄 Relative age to give f_age = 0.5	0.5	拟合值Fitted
树干死亡与自我疏伐 Stem mortality and self-thinning	最大林龄的死亡率 Mortality rate for large age	0.6	拟合值Fitted
	在1 000株·hm^-2下每株树最大树干质量 Max. stem mass per tree @ 1 000 trees·hm^-2	212	拟合值Fitted
	自然稀疏法则指数Power in self-thinning rule	1.5	默认值Default
	达到郁闭度年龄Age at canopy cover	19	拟合值Fitted
冠层电导 Conductance	冠层量子效率Canopy quantum efficiency	0.056	López-Serrano et al.(2015)

表3

图2

表4

表5

图3

图4

图5

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龄组	样本数	海拔	胸径	密度	地上生物量	蓄积
Age group	Number	Elevation/m	DBH/cm	Density/(trees·hm^-2)	Aboveground biomass /(t·hm^-2)	Volume/(m³·hm^-2)
幼龄林Young	22	242.85~319.41	10.90~11.40	1 005~2 283	43.00~94.17	57.96~149.80
中龄林Middle	48	242.85~319.41	10.11~17.23	1 005~2 995	45.21~150.86	88.04~293.18
近熟林Near mature	54	242.85~263.32	12.89~19.37	1 005~2 370	79.62~171.74	155.61~356.94
成熟林Mature	57	242.85~272.76	15.85~26.06	500~1 940	90.79~173.11	144.06~336.19

月份 Month	平均最高气温 T_max/℃	平均最低气温 T_min/℃	平均降雨量 PPT/mm	霜冻天数 FD/d	日平均辐射量 DAR/(MJ·m^-2d^-1)
1	-12.2	-23.1	6.4	30	5.73
2	-6.7	-19.3	6.2	30	8.48
3	1.7	-9.7	14.1	30	13.50
4	12.9	0.4	24.4	10.8	15.42
5	20.5	7.9	49.5	0	18.68
6	25.4	14.3	92.1	0	18.57
7	27.3	17.8	108.5	0	17.78
8	25.9	16.2	133.0	0	15.81
9	20.6	8.6	57.1	0	13.32
10	11.5	0.1	30.2	11.4	9.76
11	-0.9	-10.6	10.8	30	6.30
12	-10.3	-19.9	10.2	30	4.80

统计量Statistic	斜率Slope	截距Intercept	R²	ME	MAE	RMSE	MRE(%)
胸径DBH/cm	1.14	-2.07	0.85	0.05	0.91	1.29	0.37
密度Density/(trees·hm^-2)	1.07	-150.31	0.97	29.44	67.60	98.91	1.84
叶干生物量比Ratio of foliage to stem biomass	1.87	-0.03	0.67	0.01	0.01	0.02	20.84
根生物量Root biomass /(t·hm^-2)	0.73	7.92	0.64	-1.85	3.16	4.17	-7.70
干生物量Stem biomass /(t·hm^-2)	1.02	-0.11	0.86	-1.62	10.20	14.30	-1.39
地上生物量AGB/(t·hm^-2)	0.99	3.26	0.86	-2.44	10.54	14.85	-2.00
总生物量Total biomass /(t·hm^-²)	0.95	10.95	0.84	-4.29	12.55	17.97	-2.94
蓄积Volume/(m³·hm^-2)	1.15	13.88	0.82	-19.87	32.34	44.19	-7.87

统计量Statistic	斜率Slope	截距Intercept	R²	ME	MAE	RMSE	MRE(%)
胸径DBH/cm	1.05	-1.76	0.96	1.02	1.13	1.33	6.48
密度Density/(trees·hm^-2)	0.93	187.50	0.89	88.01	104.66	185.34	6.07
叶干生物量比Ratio of foliage to stem biomass	1.75	-0.01	0.84	0.02	0.02	0.02	25.60
根生物量Root biomass/(t·hm^-2)	0.99	2.02	0.77	-1.87	2.19	3.07	-9.12
干生物量Stem biomass/(t·hm^-2)	1.19	-31.03	0.84	-10.69	16.17	19.10	-9.89
地上生物量AGB/(t·hm^-2)	1.18	-35.41	0.84	-10.68	16.17	19.09	-10.97
总生物量Total biomass/(t·hm^-2)	1.16	-29.52	0.83	-58.08	58.39	74.39	-4.34
蓄积Volume/(m³·hm^-2)	0.95	48.06	0.90	-88.71	88.71	104.91	-9.09

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