四川省雷击火时空分布特征及影响因素分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20220769

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 研究四川省雷击火时空分布规律，分析影响雷击火发生的主要影响因素，为四川省雷击火防控提供理论基础和参考依据。方法: 以四川省2001—2021年雷击火历史统计数据为基础，分析了该省雷击火在不同时间尺度上的变化特征，使用多距离空间聚类分析等方法分析了雷击火的空间分布状况与格局；利用地理信息技术、SPSS统计软件等工具，通过对历史气象数据、数字高程模型（DEM）数据、林地资源数据等进行处理，分析了地形、气象、植被等因素对四川省雷击火的影响。结果: 2001—2021年四川省共发生雷击火72起，多发生于3—6月，其中4月是集中高发期；主要发生时段为14：00—18：00，其中15：00—16：00是雷击火最易发生的时间段。雷击火主要集中在川西南的凉山州、攀枝花市以及川西的甘孜州，尤以雅砻江流域最为集中。降水量、相对湿度是影响四川省雷击火发生次数的主要气象因子，气温、风速影响不显著。除气象因子外，雷击火受地形、植被类型影响明显，雷击火主要发生在海拔2 500~4 000 m范围内、坡度26°~45°之间、以及半阳坡或半阴坡。最易发生雷击火的林分类型是高山松林，其次为云南松林。结论: 四川省雷击火在月、日2个时间尺度下分布规律明显，多发生于夏季的下午时段；在空间上具有显著的空间聚集性特征，主要聚集在甘孜州、凉山州，尤其是雅砻江中下游区域；雷击火发生受降水量、相对湿度等气象因子影响显著，且在特定地形条件和植被类型中具有易发性。

关键词: 四川, 雷击火, 时空分布, 森林火灾

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution and occurrence regularity of lightning fires in Sichuan Province, and analyze the main influencing factors of lightning fires, so as to provide a theoretical basis and reference for the prevention and control of lightning fires in Sichuan Province. Method: Based on the historical statistical data of lightning fires in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2021, the change characteristics of lightning fires in Sichuan at different time scales were analyzed. The spatial distribution status and pattern of lightning fires in Sichuan were analyzed using multi distance spatial clustering analysis. Geographic information technology, SPSS statistical software and other tools were used to process the historical statistics data of lightning fire, meteorological data, digital elevation model (DEM) data and forest resource data and thereby analyze the impact of terrain, meteorology, vegetation and other factors on lightning fire in Sichuan Province. Result: A total of 72 lightning fires occurred in Sichuan from 2001 to 2021, most of which occurred from March to June. Among them, April was a concentrated and high occurrence period. The main occurrence period of time was 14:00―18:00, with 15:00―16:00 being the most prone time period for lightning fires. The spatial aggregation of lightning fires in Sichuan was obvious, and lightning fires mainly concentrated in Liangshan Prefecture and Panzhihua City in southwest Sichuan, and Ganzi Prefecture in west Sichuan, especially in Yalong River basin. Precipitation and relative humidity were the main meteorological factors affecting the frequency of lightning fires in Sichuan, while temperature and wind speed had no significant effect. In addition to meteorological factors, lightning fires in Sichuan were also affected by topography and vegetation type. Lightning fires were mainly concentrated in the area of the steep slope, semi-sunny slope or semi-shady slope with an altitude of 2 500–4 000 m and a slope of 26–45°. The most prone forest type was alpine pine forest, followed by Yunnan pine forest. Conclusion: The distribution pattern of lightning fires in Sichuan is obvious under the two time scales of month and day, and they mostly occur in the afternoon of summer. It has significant spatial aggregation characteristics, mainly concentrated in Ganzi Prefecture, Liangshan Prefecture, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yalong River. The occurrence of lightning fires is significantly affected by meteorological factors such as precipitation and relative humidity, and is prone to occur in specific terrain conditions and vegetation types. It is suggested to carry out lightning fire prevention and control on the basis of grasping the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of lightning fires in Sichuan.

Key words: Sichuan, lightning fire, temporal and spatial distribution, forest fire

中图分类号:

S762

陈涤非,王明玉,司莉青,赵凤君,李威,李伟克,舒立福. 四川省雷击火时空分布特征及影响因素分析[J]. 林业科学, 2023, 59(10): 32-40.

Difei Chen,Mingyu Wang,Liqing Si,Fengjun Zhao,Wei Li,Weike Li,Lifu Shu. Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and the Influencing Factors of Lightning Fires in Sichuan[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(10): 32-40.

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市（州） Municipality	县（市、区） County	雷击火次数 Number of lightning fires	占比 Proportion(%)
甘孜州 Ganzi Prefecture	九龙县 Jiulong County	20	27.8
	雅江县 Yajiang County	7	9.7
	丹巴县 Danba County	2	2.8
	道孚县 Daofu County	2	2.8
	理塘县 Litang County	2	2.8
	稻城县 Daocheng County	1	1.4
	德格县 Dege County	1	1.4
	康定市 Kangding City	1	1.4
凉山州 Liangshan Prefecture	木里县 Muli County	15	20.8
	冕宁县 Mianning County	9	12.5
	西昌市 Xichang City	2	2.8
	盐源县 Yanyuan County	2	2.8
	布拖县 Butuo County	1	1.4
	越西县 Yuexi County	1	1.4
攀枝花市 Panzhihua City	东区Dong District	1	1.4
攀枝花市 Panzhihua City	仁和区 Renhe District	1	1.4
泸州市 Luzhou City	叙永县 Xuyong County	2	2.8
达州市 Dazhou City	大竹县 Dazhu County	1	1.4
德阳市 Deyang City	什邡市 Shifang City	1	1.4

气象因子 Meteorological factors	等级值划分 Grade value division	雷击火次数 Number of lightning fires	次数占比 Percentage of times(%)
气温 Air temperature	≥10 ℃ <10 ℃	46 11	80.7 19.3
风速 Wind velocity	≥2 m·s^?1 <2 m·s^?1	43 14	75.4 24.6
降水量 Precipitation	≤10 mm >10 mm	46 11	80.7 19.3
相对湿度 Relative humidity	≤50% >50%	45 12	78.9 21.1

因子 Factors	雷击火 Lightning fire	气温 Air temperature	风速 Wind velocity	降水量 Precipitation	相对湿度 Relative humidity
雷击火 Lightning fire	1
气温 Air temperature	0.069	1
风速 Wind velocity	?0.017	?0.375**	1
降水量 Precipitation	?0.245**	?0.114*	0.009	1
相对湿度 Relative humidity	?0.115*	?0.164**	?0.421**	0.311**	1

海拔范围 Altitude range/m	雷击火次数 Number of lightning fires	占比 Proportion(%)
0~500	2	2.78
1 000~1 500	5	6.94
1 501~2 000	5	6.94
2 001~2 500	3	4.17
2 501~3 000	10	13.89
3 001~3 500	27	37.50
3 501~4 000	20	27.78

坡度等级 Grade of slope	雷击火次数 Number of lightning fires	占比 Proportion(%)
平坡Grade 1（0°~5°）	3	4.17
缓坡Grade 2（6°~15°）	9	12.50
斜坡Grade 3（16°~25°）	14	19.44
陡坡Grade 4（26°~35°）	20	27.78
急坡Grade 5（36°~45°）	17	23.61
险坡Grade 6（>45°）	9	12.50