关键词: 森林火灾火源, 年际变化, 方差分析

Abstract: Based on the forest fire data in Jilin from 1969 to 2013, the characteristics of the forest fire sources were analyzed, which would provide reference for fire source management and forest fire prevention in Jilin Province.[Method]Based on the forest fire data of Jilin Province, the interannual variation of forest fire sources in Jilin Province were analyzed by using Microsoft Office Excel to draw charts, by which the main fire sources of forest fires in Jilin Province were determined. The significant differences between the main fire sources were analyzed by using One-Way ANOVA, and damage level of fire sources was obtained according to the results of multiple comparisons and the mean value map.[Result]The number of forest fires with known fire sources was 5 216 from 1969 to 2013 in Jilin Province, accounting for 75.35% of the total forest fires; the burnt area was 103 162.70 hm², accounting for 63.63% of the total fire area; the burnt forest area was 51 316.88 hm², accounting for 55.15% of the total burnt forest area. At present, there are 23 forest fire sources in Jilin Province and the main forest fire sources are crop residue burning, arson, sacrificing fire, Foreign burning, heating and cooking in the wild, smoking in the field, especially crop residue, foreign burning, and smoking. The number of forest fires, forest area burnt, and total area burnt resulting from the three fire sources accounted for 64.63%, 71.90%, and 67.33% of the total, respectively. The arson, sacrificing fire, and field heating and cooking have obvious rising trend. Crop residue burning occurred most frequently and concentrated mainly in 1969 to 1985. Forest fires caused by crop residue burning accounted for 41.78% of the total number, and their damage to the forest was the biggest, accounting for 54.17% of the total. Forest fires resulting from smoking occurred very frequently (22.03%) and remained continuous state from 1969 to 2013 causing significant damage (15.51%). Forest fires caused by transit fire from 1974 to 2013 totaled 43 (0.82%), but did real harm (2.22%) to the forest. Forest fires caused by sacrificing fire occurred more frequently from 1970 to 1989, and went down gradually from 1990, but started to go up in 2002. Due to such activity as paper burning around Tomb-Sweeping Day in April, sacrificing fire accounted for 9.51% of the total number. Foreign burning brought the biggest damage every time, followed by field heating and cooking, crop residue burning, smoking, sacrificing fire, and arson in Jilin Province. If a forest fire is caused by transit fire is not well controlled, it is likely to develop into a major catastrophic forest fire.[Conclusion]The main forest fire sources in Jilin Province are now crop residue burning, arson, sacrificing fire, foreign burning, field heating and cooking, smoking, and prevention and control of those fire sources should be strengthened.

Key words: forest fire source, annual scale change, variance analysis