基于GIS的北京市延庆区森林火灾蔓延风险

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20220531

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 建立森林火灾蔓延风险评估框架（包括发生危险、蔓延危险、蔓延风险3部分），基于GIS开展北京市延庆区多尺度（小班、村屯、乡镇）森林火灾蔓延风险评估，为延庆区林火管理提供依据，最大限度降低林火发生危险和林火蔓延造成的损失。方法: 基于延庆区2019年森林资源二类调查小班数据、森林可燃物数据、人口数据、30 m分辨率数字高程数据、气象数据，从野外火源管理难度和着火难易程度2个方面构建森林火灾发生危险评估指标体系，从森林可燃物、气象因子、地形因子、火行为4个方面构建森林火灾蔓延危险评估指标体系，应用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的主客观赋权法确定指标权重，利用加权综合评价法和面积加权平均法计算多尺度发生危险和蔓延危险指数，根据自然断点分级法划分等级。基于“危险性-暴露度-脆弱性”风险评估框架，从破坏森林资源和威胁生命安全2个方面评估森林火灾蔓延风险。结果: 1）野外火源管理难度的综合权重达到0.7713，是影响森林火灾发生危险的主要因素；火行为的综合权重达到0.4032，是影响森林火灾蔓延危险的主要因素。2）延庆区森林火灾发生危险从平原向山区逐步减小，高发生危险区域在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上分别占比0.89%、0.52%、7.48%，主要分布在城区周围的平原区域；蔓延危险从平原向山区逐步增大，高蔓延危险区域在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上分别占比46.19%、58.73%、35.67%，主要分布在西部2个林场（八达岭林场、松山林场）和东部2个山区乡镇（千家店镇、珍珠泉乡）。3）延庆区森林火灾蔓延风险(森林资源)在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上均无极高风险区域，中高风险区域在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上分别占比0.80%、2.85%、1.79%；蔓延风险(人口)在村屯和乡镇尺度上均无极高和中高风险区域，小班尺度上无极高风险区域，仅有9个中高风险小班，中蔓延风险区域在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上分别占比34.97%、51.19%、42.25%。结论: 森林火灾高发生危险小班以杨树、刺槐、柳树的人工林为主，高蔓延危险小班以蒙古栎天然林、油松人工林、侧柏人工林为主，中高蔓延风险(森林资源)小班以油松和落叶松的人工林为主，中蔓延风险(人口)区域主要分布在东部4个山区乡镇（珍珠泉乡、千家店镇、刘斌堡乡、四海镇）。

关键词: 延庆区, 森林火灾, 蔓延风险, 多尺度, 地理信息系统

Abstract:

Objective: In this study, an assessment framework for forest fire spread risk (including occurrence hazard, spread hazard, and spread risk) was established, to carry out multi-scale (subcompartment, village, township) forest fire spread risk assessment in Yanqing District of Beijing based on GIS technology. The study aims to provide a basis for forest fire management in Yanqing District, which could minimize the occurrence hazard of forest fire and the loss caused by the spread of forest fire. Method: Based on the subcompartment data of the 2019 forest resources second-class survey, forest fuel data, population data, 30-meter resolution digital elevation data and meteorological data, the forest fire occurrence hazard assessment index system was constructed from two aspects: difficulty in wildfire sources management and ease degree of ignition. The forest fire spread hazard assessment index system was constructed from four aspects of forest fuel, meteorological factor, topographic factor and fire behavior. The subjective and objective weighting method of AHP and entropy weight method were used to determine the index weight, and the weighted comprehensive evaluation method and the area weighted average method were used to calculate the multi-scale occurrence hazard and spread hazard index. According to the natural break point classification method, the grade is divided. Based on the risk assessment framework of “hazard-exposure-vulnerability”, the forest fire spread risk was evaluated from two aspects of destroying forest resources and threatening life safety. Result: 1) The comprehensive weight of difficulty in wildfire sources management reached 0.771 3, which was the main factor affecting the forest fire occurrence hazard. The comprehensive weight of fire behavior was 0.403 2, which was the main factor affecting the forest fire spread hazard. 2) The forest fire occurrence hazard in Yanqing district gradually decreased from plain to mountainous area, and the high occurrence hazard areas accounted for 0.89%, 0.52% and 7.48% in subcompartment, village and township scales, respectively, mainly distributed in the plain area around the urban area. The spread hazard gradually increased from plain to mountainous area, and the high spread hazard areas accounted for 46.19%, 58.73% and 35.67% respectively in subcompartment, village and township scales, mainly distributed in two western forest farms (Badaling Forest Farm and Songshan Forest Farm) and two eastern mountainous towns (Qianjiadian Town and Zhenzhuquan Township). 3) The forest fire spread risk (forest resource) in Yanqing district was not extremely high risk area in subcompartment, village and township scales, and the medium-high risk areas accounted for 0.80%, 2.85% and 1.79% in subcompartment, village and township scales, respectively. The forest fire spread risk (population) was had no extremely high or medium-high risk areas in village and township scales. There were no extremely high risk areas in subcompartment, only 9 medium-high risk areas in subcompartment, and the medium risk areas accounted for 34.97%, 51.19% and 42.25% in subcompartment, village and township scales, respectively. Conclusion: The high occurrence hazard subcompartments were mainly in Poplar, Robinia pseudoacacia and Willow plantations. The high spread hazard subcompartments were mainly in Quercus mongolica natural forest, Pinus tabuliformis plantations and Platycladus orientalis plantations. The medium-high spread risk (forest resource) subcompartments were mainly in Pinus tabuliformis and Larch plantations. The medium spread risk (population) areas were mainly distributed in four eastern mountainous towns (Zhenzhuquan Township, Qianjiadian Town, Liubinbao Township and Sihai Town).

Key words: Yanqing District, forest fire, spread risk, multi-scale, geographic information system

中图分类号:

S762.1

王博,杨雪清,蒋春颖,刘冬,陈锋,白夜,刘晓东. 基于GIS的北京市延庆区森林火灾蔓延风险[J]. 林业科学, 2023, 59(8): 90-101.

Bo Wang,Xueqing Yang,Chunying Jiang,Dong Liu,Feng Chen,Ye Bai,Xiaodong Liu. Forest Fire Spread Risk in Yanqing District of Beijing Based on GIS[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(8): 90-101.

图/表 9

图1

表1

森林火灾发生危险评估指标①"

一级指标 First level index	二级指标 Secondary index	计算方式 Calculation
野外火源管理难度 Difficulty in wildfire sources management	祭祀用火重点人群密度 Sacrificial fire key population density	林区及林缘100 m范围内祭祀用火重点人群（60岁至79岁）数量与评估区域的林地面积之比，单位为person·hm^?2。Ratio of the number of key groups (aged 60 to 79) for sacrificial fire to the forest area of the evaluation area within 100 meters of forest area and forest edge, in person·hm^?2.
	农事用火风险区域面积 Area of agricultural fire risk area	林区及林缘100 m范围内耕地面积与评估区域的林地面积之比，量纲为一。The ratio of cultivated land area within 100 meters of forest area and forest edge to woodland area of evaluation area, without dimensionality.
	路旁烟头风险区域长度 Length of roadside cigarette butts risk area	林区及林缘100 m范围内交通建设用地小班的长度与评估区域林地面积之比，单位为km·hm^?2。The ratio of the length of traffic construction land subclass within 100 meters of forest area and forest edge to the area of forest land in the evaluation region, in km·hm^?2.
着火难易程度 Ease degree of ignition	防火期月最小相对湿度Minimum monthly relative humidity during fire prevention period	防火期期间，月每日最小相对湿度的最小值，单位为%。The minimum daily relative humidity of a month during the fire prevention period, in %.
	防火期月平均风速 Monthly mean wind speed during fire prevention period	防火期期间，月每日平均风速的平均值，单位为m·s^?1。Average monthly average daily wind speed during the fire prevention period, in m·s^?1.
	细小可燃物载量 Fine fuel load	单位面积1h时滞可燃物（直径＜0.64 cm）、枯死杂草和上层枯叶载量，单位为t·hm^?2。1 hour delay fuel (diameter＜0.64 cm), dead weeds and upper layer dead leaf load in unit area, in t·hm^?2.

表1

表2

森林火灾蔓延危险评估指标①"

一级指标 First level index	二级指标Secondary index	计算方式 Calculation
森林可燃物 Forest fuel	地表可燃物载量Surface fuel load	单位面积地表可燃物（灌木、草本、枯落物）载量，单位为t·hm^?2。Amount of surface fuel (shrub, herb, litter) per unit area, in t·hm^?2.
	灌草植被总覆盖度Total coverage of shrub and grass vegetation	林地灌草层的总覆盖度，单位为%。Total coverage of shrub and grass layer in woodland, in %.
	森林燃烧性Forest flammability	森林被引燃着火的难易程度以及着火后所表现出的燃烧状态（火种类）和燃烧速度、火强度等的综合，也可以衡量森林燃烧释放能量的大小，量纲为一。It is also possible to measure the size of energy released by forest combustion, dimensionless, by the combination of the difficulty of forest ignition and the combustion state (fire type) and the combustion speed and fire intensity after ignition.
气象因子 Meteorological factor	防火期月大风日数Monthly gale days during fire prevention period	防火期期间，月平均出现瞬时风力5级或以上的天气日数，单位为days。During the fire prevention period, the monthly average number of weather days with instantaneous wind force 5 or above is expressed in days.
	防火期月降水量Monthly precipitation during fire prevention period	防火期期间，总降雨量的月平均值，单位为mm。The monthly average of total rainfall during the fire prevention period, in mm.
	防火期月平均最高气温Monthly mean maximum temperature during fire prevention period	防火期期间，日最高气温的平均值，单位为℃。Average daily maximum temperature during the fire prevention period, in ℃.
地形因子 Topographical factor	海拔Elevation	高出海平面的垂直距离，单位为m。The vertical distance above sea level, in m.
	坡度Slope	坡面的垂直高度和水平宽度的比值，单位为%。The ratio of vertical height to horizontal width of a slope, in %.
	坡向Aspect	坡面的朝向，量纲为一。Orientation of slope, dimensionless.
	坡位Slope position	坡面所处的地貌部位，量纲为一。The landform on which a slope is located, dimensionless.
火行为 Fire behavior	地表火蔓延速度Surface fire spread speed	地表火的火线在单位时间内向前移动的距离，单位是m·min^?1。The distance that the surface fire line moves forward per unit time, in m·min^?1.
	火线强度Fire intensity	火头前沿单位长度上热量释放速度，单位是kW·m^?1。Heat release rate per unit length of fire head front, in kW·m^?1.
	火焰高度Flame height	垂直于地面连续的火焰高度，单位是m。Continuous flame height perpendicular to the ground, in m.

表2

表3

表4

表5

图2

图3

图4

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森林火灾蔓延风险指数 Forest fire spread risk index	1	(1,1.5]	(1.5,2]	(2,3]	(3,4]
森林火灾蔓延风险等级 Forest fire spread risk level	极高风险 Extremely high risk	中高风险 Medium-high risk	中风险 Medium risk	中低风险 Medium-low risk	低风险 Low risk

一级指标 First level index	一级指标综合权重Comprehensive weight of first level index	二级指标 Secondary index	二级指标层次分析权重Chromatography analysis weight of secondary index	二级指标熵权重Entropy weight of secondary index	二级指标综合权重Comprehensive weight of secondary index	指标类型 Index type	计算尺度 Computing scale
野外火源管理难度Difficulty in wildfire sources management	0.7713	祭祀用火重点人群密度Sacrificial fire key population density	0.2415	0.3093	0.2754	正向Positive	村屯Village
		农事用火风险区域面积Area of agricultural fire risk area	0.2402	0.2839	0.2621	正向Positive	村屯Village
		路旁烟头风险区域长度Length of roadside cigarette butts risk area	0.2365	0.2311	0.2338	正向Positive	村屯Village
着火难易程度Ease degree of ignition	0.2287	防火期月最小相对湿度Minimum monthly relative humidity during fire prevention period	0.1081	0.0380	0.0730	负向Negative	小班Subcompartment
		防火期月平均风速Monthly mean wind speed during fire prevention period	0.0474	0.0914	0.0694	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		细小可燃物载量Fine fuel load	0.1263	0.0463	0.0863	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment

一级指标First level index	一级指标综合权重Comprehensive weight of first level index	二级指标Secondary index	二级指标层次分析权重Chromatography analysis weight of secondary index	二级指标熵权重Entropy weight of secondary index	二级指标综合权重Comprehensive weight of secondary index	指标类型 Index type	计算尺度Computing scale
森林可燃物Forest fuel	0.1982	地表可燃物载量Surface fuel load	0.0812	0.0314	0.0563	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		灌草植被总覆盖度Total coverage of shrub and grass vegetation	0.1132	0.0845	0.0989	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		森林燃烧性Forest flammability	0.0735	0.0125	0.0430	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
气象因子Meteorological factor	0.1414	防火期月大风日数Monthly gale days during fire prevention period	0.1153	0.0205	0.0679	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		防火期月降水量Monthly precipitation during fire prevention period	0.0524	0.0228	0.0376	负向Negative	小班Subcompartment
		防火期月平均最高气温Monthly mean maximum temperature during fire prevention period	0.0501	0.0216	0.0359	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
地形因子Topographical factor	0.2572	海拔Elevation	0.0126	0.0017	0.0071	负向Negative	小班Subcompartment
		坡度Slope	0.1249	0.1895	0.1572	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		坡向Aspect	0.0508	0.0411	0.0460	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		坡位Slope position	0.0522	0.0417	0.0469	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
火行为 Fire behavior	0.4032	地表火蔓延速度Surface fire spread speed	0.1265	0.1964	0.1614	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		火线强度Fire intensity	0.0781	0.2019	0.1400	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment
		火焰高度Flame height	0.0692	0.1344	0.1018	正向Positive	小班Subcompartment

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