关键词: 土地利用, 生境质量, 情景模拟, 国家公园, 松嫩鹤乡

Abstract:

Objective: The aim of this paper was to construct a comprehensive analysis framework based on multi-source remotely sensed data, land use change simulation, and ecological assessment models to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future development trends of land habitat quality in the potential area of the proposed Songnen Plain Crane Homeland National Park, providing scientific support for spatial optimization and ecological management of the national park. Method: To explore the impact of land use change on habitat quality, this study was conducted based on land use change data from 1990 to 2020 in the potential area of the proposed Songnen Plain Crane Homeland National Park. Four future scenarios were set: natural development, urban development, cropland protection, and ecological protection. The PLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2035, and the InVEST model was applied to assess habitat quality. Furthermore, the evolution trends and main driving factors of habitat quality under historical periods and future scenarios were analyzed. Result: The research results show that core ecological habitat and suitable ecological habitat are mainly distributed in forest, grassland, and wetland, while the habitat quality of cropland and construction land is relatively low. From 1990 to 2020, the land use structure in the study area underwent significant changes, with continuous expansion of cropland and construction land, whose area proportions increased by 4.37% and 8.31% respectively. Meanwhile, the areas of forest, grassland, and wetland decreased, with area proportions reduced by 1.67%, 2.13%, and 0.62%, respectively. The habitat quality index declined by 0.03, the area of high-quality habitat decreased by 3.61%, and habitat fragmentation intensified. The future scenario simulation results from 2020 to 2035 indicate significant differences in the impact of different land use policies on habitat quality: under the natural development scenario, habitat quality shows a trend of polarization, with core ecological habitat and damaged ecological area increasing by 0.03% and 0.97% respectively, while the areas of other habitats decrease by 0.05%~0.14%; the urban development scenario leads to intensified ecological degradation, with damaged ecological area increasing by 0.04% and unsuitable habitat increasing by 1.29%; the cropland protection scenario can maintain the stability of core ecological habitat to a certain extent, but its effect on improving overall habitat quality is limited; the ecological protection scenario is help to improve the habitat quality, with the areas of core ecological habitat and suitable ecological habitat increasing by 0.03% and 0.97% respectively. The response of habitat quality to different land use types presented nonlinear characteristics: forest, grassland, and wetlands significantly enhance habitat quality, while cropland, water area, construction land, and bare land have negative effects on habitat quality. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2020, the land use change lead to the degradation of ecological lands and the decline of habitat quality in the potential area of the proposed Songnen Plain Crane Homeland National Park. From 2020 to 2035, compared with the scenarios of natural development, urban development and cropland protection, the ecological protection scenario exhibits the most positive trend of ecological restoration, effectively improving habitat quality and reducing damaged ecological area. This study highlights the profound impact of land use structure adjustments on ecosystem functions, which is of great guiding significance for the ecological background investigation, boundary scope and functional area demarcation of the proposed national park.

Key words: land use, habitat quality, scenario modelling, national park, Songnen Plain Crane Homeland