Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (6): 74-87.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20220553
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Qiangying Jiao1,2(),Zongfu Han2,Weiye Wang3,Di Liu4,Pengxu Pan5,Bo Li6,Nianci Zhang7,Ping Wang1,Jinhua Tao2,Meng Fan2,*
Received:
2022-08-10
Online:
2023-06-25
Published:
2023-08-08
Contact:
Meng Fan
E-mail:jqy19971110@163.com
CLC Number:
Qiangying Jiao,Zongfu Han,Weiye Wang,Di Liu,Pengxu Pan,Bo Li,Nianci Zhang,Ping Wang,Jinhua Tao,Meng Fan. Driving Factors and Forecasting Model of Lightning-Caused Forest Fires in Daxing’ anling Mountains Based on Multi-Sources Data and Machine Learning Method[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(6): 74-87.
Table 1
Attribute table of lightning-caused fire risk drivers"
类别 Type | 风险驱动因子 Risk factor | 符号 Symbol | 单位 Unit | 时间分辨率 Temporal resolution | 空间分辨率 Spatial resolution | 数据源 Data source | 是否参与建模 Whether used in modeling |
闪电 Lightning | 引起雷击火的闪电总个数 Lightning-caused fire number | Frq_5 | 次times | 1 d | — | ADTD | 是Y |
Frq_10 | 次times | 1 d | — | ADTD | 否N | ||
引起雷击火的闪电强度均值 Averaged lightning intensity | I_5 | kA | 1 d | — | ADTD | 是Y | |
I_10 | kA | 1 d | — | ADTD | 否N | ||
引起雷击火的闪电陡度均值 Averaged lightning steep | Steep_5 | kA·μs?1 | 1 d | — | ADTD | 否N | |
Steep_10 | kA·μs?1 | 1 d | — | ADTD | 是Y | ||
气象 Meteorology | 相对湿度Relative humidity | Rh | % | 1 h | 0.1° | ERA5 | 是Y |
总降水量 Total precipitation | Tp | m | 1 h | 0.1° | ERA5 | 是Y | |
气温 Temperature | Tm | K | 1 h | 0.1° | ERA5 | 是Y | |
气压 Air pressure | Sp | Pa | 1 h | 0.1° | ERA5 | 是Y | |
风速 Wind speed | Ws | m·s–1 | 1 h | 0.1° | ERA5 | 是Y | |
植被 Vegetation | 归一化植被指数均值 Normalized difference vegetation index | NDVI | — | 16 d | 250 m | MODIS | 是Y |
总初级生产力Gross primary productivity | GPP | g·m?2 | 8 d | 500 m | MODIS | 是Y | |
净初级生产力Net primary productivity | NPP | g·m?2 | 1 a | 1 km | MODIS | 否N | |
蒸散量Evapotranspiration | Et | kg·m?2 | 8 d | 0.04° | MODIS | 是Y | |
地形 Terrain | 高程 Elevation | Ele | m | — | 30 m | SRTM | 否N |
坡度 Slope | Slope | ° | — | 30 m | SRTM | 是Y | |
坡向 Aspect | Aspect | — | — | 30 m | SRTM | 是Y |
Table 4
Lighting frequency of different intensities in Daxing’ an Mountains from 2010 to 2020"
闪电强度 Lightning intensity/kA | 总闪次数 Total lightning frequency | 负闪次数 Negative lightning frequency | 正闪次数 Positive lightning frequency |
0~20 | 477 015(59.20%) | 455 961(60.52%) | 21 054(40.21%) |
20~40 | 224 000(27.80%) | 207 937(27.60%) | 16 063(30.68%) |
40~60 | 64 507(8.01%) | 56 857(7.55%) | 7 650(14.61%) |
60~80 | 21 546(2.67%) | 18 016(2.39%) | 3 530(6.74%) |
>80 | 18 658(2.32%) | 14 590(1.94%) | 4 068(7.77%) |
Table 5
Correlation between meteorological factors and lightning-caused fires occurrence in Daxing’ anling Mountains from 2010 to 2020"
指标 Index | 雷击火发生次数 Number of lightning fires | Rh | Tp | t2m | Sp | Ws | NDVI | GPP | NPP | Et |
雷击火发生次数 Number of lightning fires | 1 | |||||||||
Rh | ?0.412 | 1 | ||||||||
Tp | ?0.200 | 0.659 | 1 | |||||||
Tm | 0.456 | ?0.319 | ?0.386 | 1 | ||||||
Sp | 0.003 | ?0.133 | 0.022 | ?0.114 | 1 | |||||
Ws | ?0.095 | ?0.074 | 0.299 | ?0.114 | 0.019 | 1 | ||||
NDVI | 0.372 | 0.347 | 0.183 | 0.518 | ?0.350 | ?0.315 | 1 | |||
GPP | 0.355 | ?0.091 | ?0.083 | 0.443 | ?0.069 | ?0.262 | 0.548 | 1 | ||
NPP | 0.266 | ?0.052 | 0.102 | ?0.036 | ?0.048 | 0.011 | 0.134 | 0.498 | 1 | |
Et | 0.022 | 0.270 | 0.245 | 0.339 | 0.285 | ?0.070 | 0.320 | 0.066 | ?0.107 | 1 |
Table 7
Risk classification of lightning-caused forest fire"
火险等级 Fire risk level | 雷击火灾发生概率 The probability of lightning-caused fire occurrence | 预报服务用语 Forecast service conditions |
1级(低火险) Level 1 (low fire risk) | | 雷击火险等级低 The lightning-caused fire risk level is low |
2级(较低火险) Level 2 (moderate low fire risk) | | 雷击火险等级较低 The lightning-caused fire risk level is relatively low |
3级(较高火险) Level 3 (moderate high fire risk) | | 雷击火险等级较高,须加强防范 The risk of lightning-caused fire is high and requires increased prevention measures |
4级(高火险) Level 4 (high fire risk) | | 雷击火险等级高,林区须加强火源管理 The risk of lightning-caused fire is high, and effective fire source management should be strengthened in forested areas |
5级(极高火险) Level 5 (Extremely high fire risk) | | 雷击火险等级极高,严禁 一切林内用火 The risk of lightning-caused fire is extremely high, and all forms of open flames or fires are strictly prohibited within forested areas |
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