Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (7): 184-193.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210720
Previous Articles Next Articles
Yu Cheng1,Can Liu2,Hongqiang Yang3,Han Zhang1,*
Received:
2020-08-13
Online:
2021-07-25
Published:
2021-09-02
Contact:
Han Zhang
CLC Number:
Yu Cheng,Can Liu,Hongqiang Yang,Han Zhang. The Structure of Commercial Forests "Tending to Become Economic Forests": An Analysis of Causes Based on Labor Cost Effects and Relative-Revenue Effects[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(7): 184-193.
Table 1
Variable descriptive statistics"
变量 Variables | 变量说明 Variable description | 总体均值 Population mean | t统计量 t statistic |
被解释变量 Explained variables | |||
经济林占比 Ratio of economic forests(%) | 经济林面积占商品林面积比重 The proportion of economic forest area in commercial forest area | 14.996(32.372) | 9.356*** |
核心解释变量 Key explanatory variables | |||
工资水平 Wages/(yuan·d-1) | 当地务工平均工资 Average salary of local migrant workers | 48.966(19.423) | 54.062*** |
相对收益 Relative revenue(multiple) | 经济林与用材林每公顷收益之比 Ratio of average income per hectare area between economic forest and timber forest | 2.150(3.608) | 1.355 |
控制变量 Control variables | |||
集体林改 Collective forestland tenure reform | 改革是否已完成(是=1,否=0) Whether the reform has been completed(Yes=1, No=0) | 0.690(0.462) | |
木材价格 Timber price/(yuan·m-3) | 当地市场平均木材价格 Average timber price in the local market | 427.064(97.239) | 70.117*** |
林地面积 Forestland area/hm2 | 家庭经营林地总面积 Total area of family-run forestland | 36.597(73.663) | 15.320*** |
细碎化程度 Fragmentation degree/(hm2 · piece-1) | 林地块均面积 Average area of forest plots | 9.951(20.645) | 13.252*** |
家庭人口数 Household size/person | 3.982(1.469) | -10.886*** | |
人均收入 Per capita income/(103yuan·a-1) | 家庭人均年收入 Per capital household income | 6.277(8.928) | 20.753*** |
非农就业 Off-farm employment(%) | 非农就业收入占家庭总收入比重 The proportion of non-agricultural employment income in total household income | 49.800(34.132) | 17.985*** |
干部 Cadre | 家庭成员是否干部(是=1,否=0) Whether the family member is a cadre(Yes=1, No=0) | 0.252(0.434) | 0.009 |
年龄 Age/a | 户主年龄 Age of head of household | 51.076(10.911) | 20.310*** |
文化程度 Education/a | 户主受教育年限 Education of household head | 7.352(2.761) | 0.359 |
山区 Mountain | 是否处在山区(是=1,否=0) Whether it is in a mountainous area(Yes=1, No=0) | 0.557(0.497) | -0.128 |
道路 Road | 路面是否硬化(是=1,否=0) Whether the road is hardened(Yes=1, No=0) | 0.718(0.450) | 12.933*** |
到县城距离 Distance to county/km | 至最近县城距离 Distance to the nearest county | 35.142(30.829) | -5.237*** |
样本量 Sample size | 11 976 |
Table 2
Estimated results of Ⅳ-Tobit model"
变量 Variables | 第1阶段:集体林改 First stage: Collective forestland tenure reform | 第2阶段:经济林占比 Second stage: Ratio of economic forests | ||
Logit | Ⅳ-Tobit | 2SLS | ||
核心解释变量 Key explanatory variables | ||||
工具变量 Instrumental variables | 13.404***(1.055) | — | — | |
工资水平Wages | — | -0.215**(0.088) | -0.041*(0.023) | |
相对收益Relative revenue | 0.090(0.077) | 0.421***(0.093) | 0.284***(0.047) | |
集体林改×相对收益 Collective forestland tenure reform×Relative revenue | — | 0.282***(0.105) | 0.125**(0.051) | |
控制变量 Control variables | ||||
集体林改 Collective forestland tenure reform | — | 2.519**(0.996) | 0.952**(0.465) | |
木材价格Timber price | 5.086***(0.821) | -0.323(0.838) | 0.053(0.202) | |
林地面积Forestland area | 0.244**(0.106) | 1.007***(0.122) | 0.170***(0.034) | |
细碎化程度Fragmentation degree | -0.211*(0.116) | 0.055(0.128) | -0.013(0.037) | |
家庭人口数Household size | -0.017(0.083) | -0.250***(0.069) | 0.054***(0.017) | |
人均收入Per capita income | 0.042(0.141) | 0.304**(0.126) | 0.056*(0.033) | |
非农就业Off-farm employment | 0.048(0.037) | -0.013(0.037) | -0.005(0.009) | |
干部Cadre | -0.209(0.300) | 0.494**(0.248) | 0.118*(0.069) | |
年龄Age | 10.806(15.811) | -0.955(12.928) | 0.214(3.542) | |
年龄的平方Age squared | -1.361(2.051) | -0.112(1.671) | -0.074(0.460) | |
文化程度Education | -0.047(0.078) | -0.109*(0.057) | -0.030*(0.017) | |
山区Mountain | -0.274(0.296) | 16.316(14.151) | 0.266(1.395) | |
道路Road | -1.093***(0.318) | 0.972**(0.405) | 0.063(0.110) | |
到县城距离Distance to county | -0.012**(0.005) | -0.642*(0.370) | -0.040(0.033) | |
常数项Constant | -55.603*(30.690) | 26.558(29.139) | -2.845(6.930) | |
村级虚拟变量联合检验 Town dummy variables | — | 控制 Control | 控制 Control | |
年份虚拟变量联合检验 Year dummy variables | — | 控制 Control | 控制 Control | |
F统计量F statistic | — | — | 60.14*** | |
Wald内生性检验Wald endogeneity test | 3.460* | — | — | |
伪拟合优度|拟合优度 Pseudo R2 | R2 | — | 0.168 | 0.347 | |
截尾|样本个数 Censoring | Sample number | 11 976 | 9 011|11 976 | 0|11 976 |
Table 3
Estimated results from an opposite perspective"
解释变量 Explanatory variables | 被解释变量Explained variables | |
第1阶段:集体林改 First stage: Collective forestland tenure reform Logit | 第2阶段:经济林占比 Second stage: Ratio of economic forests Ⅳ-Tobit | |
核心解释变量Key explanatory variables | ||
工资水平Wages | — | -1.001***(0.016) |
相对收益Relative revenue | 0.044(0.038) | 0.933***(0.013) |
集体林改×相对收益Collective forestland tenure reform×Relative revenue | — | 0.053***(0.015) |
控制变量Control variables | ||
集体林改Collective forestland tenure reform | — | 0.080***(0.007) |
工具变量Instrumental variables | 7.753***(0.200) | — |
木材价格Timber price | 3.688***(0.546) | -0.534***(0.021) |
林地面积Forestland area | 0.189***(0.047) | 0.871***(0.019) |
细碎化程度Fragmentation degree | -0.170***(0.054) | 0.150***(0.018) |
家庭人口数Household size | -0.003(0.054) | -0.475***(0.026) |
人均收入Per capita income | -0.008(0.093) | 0.257***(0.055) |
非农就业Off-farm employment | 0.001(0.030) | -0.020*(0.012) |
干部Cadre | 0.102(0.204) | 0.972***(0.087) |
年龄Age | 14.728(9.711) | 3.457***(0.032) |
年龄的平方Age squared | -1.916(1.291) | -0.710***(0.008) |
文化程度Education | -0.040(0.054) | -0.154***(0.028) |
山区Mountain | 0.114(0.195) | 1.037***(0.117) |
道路Road | -0.992***(0.211) | 40.458***(0.117) |
到县城距离Distance to county | -0.012***(0.002) | -0.042***(0.002) |
常数项Constant | -52.813***(18.519) | -37.838***(0.123) |
村级虚拟变量Town dummy variables | — | 控制Control |
年份虚拟变量Year dummy variables | — | 控制Control |
伪拟合优度|拟合优度Pseudo R2 |R2 | 0.858 | 0.221 |
截尾|样本个数Censoring|Sample number | 5 988 | 4 734|5 988 |
Table 4
Robust test"
变量Variables | 模型1 Model 1 | 模型2 Model 2 | 模型3 Model 3 | 模型4 Model 4 |
工资水平Wages | -0.198**(0.087) | -0.237**(0.108) | 0.606***(0.139) | -0.173**(0.084) |
相对收益Relative revenue | 0.180***(0.046) | 0.036(0.059) | -0.123***(0.010) | 0.405***(0.070) |
交互项Interaction | 0.741***(0.044) | 0.555***(0.045) | -0.184***(0.030) | 0.152***(0.054) |
控制变量Control variables | 控制Control | 控制Control | 控制Control | 控制Control |
蔡昉. 优化人力资本, 冲刺高收入阶段. 经济研究, 2020, 55 (1): 6- 9.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-291X.2020.01.004 |
|
Cai F . Optimize human capital and sprint to the stage of high income. Economic Research Journal, 2020, 55 (1): 6- 9. | |
黄玛兰, 李晓云. 农业劳动力价格上涨对农作物种植结构变化的省际差异性影响. 经济地理, 2019, 39 (6): 172- 182. | |
Huang M L , Li X Y . The impacts of rural labor price rising on crop structure among provinces. Economic Geography, 2019, 39 (6): 172- 182. | |
柯炳生. 我国农民工工资变化及其深远影响. 农业经济问题, 2019, (9): 4- 7. | |
Ke B S . The migrant workers' income change and its effect in China. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2019, (9): 4- 7. | |
李宁, 汪险生, 王舒娟, 等. 自购还是外包: 农地确权如何影响农户的农业机械化选择?. 中国农村经济, 2019, (6): 54- 75. | |
Li N , Wang X S , Wang S J , et al. Self-purchasing or outsourcing: How does farmland right confirmation affect farmers' choice of agricultural mechanization?. Chinese Rural Economy, 2019, (6): 54- 75. | |
李昭琰, 乔方彬. 工资增长对机械化和农业生产的影响. 农业技术经济, 2019, (2): 23- 32. | |
Li Z Y , Qiao F B . Impact of rising wage on mechanization and agricultural production. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2019, (2): 23- 32. | |
林坚, 李德洗. 非农就业与粮食生产: 替代抑或互补——基于粮食主产区农户视角的分析. 中国农村经济, 2013, (9): 54- 62. | |
Lin J , Li D X . Off-farm employment and grain production: substitution or complementarity: based on the perspective of farmers in major grain producing areas. Chinese Rural Economy, 2013, (9): 54- 62. | |
刘璨. 改革开放以来集体林权制度改革的分权演化博弈分析. 中国农村经济, 2020, (5): 21- 38. | |
Liu C . The decentralization of collective forestland tenure reform in China since the reform and opening-up from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. Chinese Rural Economy, 2020, (5): 21- 38. | |
刘莹, 黄季焜. 农户多目标种植决策模型与目标权重的估计. 经济研究, 2010, 45 (1): 148- 157.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-913X.2010.01.065 |
|
Liu Y , Huang J K . A multi-objective decision model of farmer's crop production. Economic Research Journal, 2010, 45 (1): 148- 157. | |
罗必良, 张露, 仇童伟. 小农的种粮逻辑——40年来中国农业种植结构的转变与未来策略. 南方经济, 2018, (8): 1- 28. | |
Luo B L , Zhang L , Qiu T W . The logic of small-scale farmers' grain production: the transformation of China's agricultural planting structure in the past 40 years and its future strategy. Southern Economic Journal, 2018, (8): 1- 28. | |
罗丹, 李文明, 陈洁. 种粮效益: 差异化特征与政策意蕴——基于3 400个种粮户的调查. 管理世界, 2013, (7): 59- 70. | |
Luo D , Li W M , Chen J . Grain production efficiency: differentiation characteristics and policy implications — Based on the survey of 3 400 grain farmers. Management World, 2013, (7): 59- 70. | |
钱龙, 袁航, 刘景景, 等. 农地流转影响粮食种植结构分析. 农业技术经济, 2018, (8): 63- 74. | |
Qian L , Yuan H , Liu J J , et al. Does transfer of farmland affect grain planting structure?. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018, (8): 63- 74. | |
仇童伟, 罗必良. 种植结构"趋粮化"的动因何在?——基于农地产权与要素配置的作用机理及实证研究. 中国农村经济, 2018, (2): 65- 80. | |
Qiu T W , Luo B L . What leads to a "tendency to plant grains" in agricultural planting structure? An empirical analysis based on the impact factors of land property rights and factors allocation. Chinese Rural Economy, 2018, (2): 65- 80. | |
史清华, 卓建伟. 农户粮作经营及家庭粮食安全行为研究——以江浙沪3省市26村固定跟踪观察农户为例. 农业技术经济, 2004, (5): 23- 32.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6370.2004.05.005 |
|
Shi Q H , Zhuo J W . Research on farmers' grain management and household food security behavior: take 26 villages in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as an example. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2004, (5): 23- 32. | |
王小龙. 退耕还林: 私人承包与政府规制. 经济研究, 2004, (4): 107- 116. | |
Wang X L . The cropland conversion: contracting out and public regulation. Economic Research Journal, 2004, (4): 107- 116. | |
徐志刚, 谭鑫, 郑旭媛, 等. 农地流转市场发育对粮食生产的影响与约束条件. 中国农村经济, 2017, (9): 26- 43. | |
Xu Z G , Tan X , Zheng X Y , et al. The influence and constraints of the development of farmland transfer market on grain production. Chinese Rural Economy, 2017, (9): 26- 43. | |
严如贺, 柯水发. 经济林种植对人工林木材供给能力的影响: 抑制还是促进?——基于南方12省份森林资源清查面板数据. 中国农村经济, 2019, (5): 38- 53. | |
Yan R H , Ke S F . The impact of cultivation of tree crops on timber supply capacity of planted forests: inhibition or promotion? an analysis based on forest inventory panel data in 12 provinces of south China. Chinese Rural Economy, 2019, (5): 38- 53. | |
杨进, 钟甫宁, 陈志钢, 等. 农村劳动力价格、人口结构变化对粮食种植结构的影响. 管理世界, 2016, (1): 78- 87. | |
Yang J , Zhong F N , Chen Z G , et al. The influence of rural labor price and population structure change on grain planting structure. Management World, 2016, (1): 78- 87. | |
易小燕, 陈印军. 农户转入耕地及其"非粮化"种植行为与规模的影响因素分析——基于浙江、河北两省的农户调查数据. 中国农村观察, 2010, (6): 2- 10. | |
Yi X Y , Chen Y J . Analysis on the influencing factors of farmers' transfer to cultivated land and their "non grain" planting behavior and scale: Based on the survey data of farmers in Zhejiang and Hebei Provinces. China Rural Survey, 2010, (6): 2- 10. | |
张寒, 程娟娟, 刘璨. 基于内生性视角的非农就业对林地流转的效应评价——来自9省1 497户农户的连续监测数据. 农业技术经济, 2018, (1): 122- 131. | |
Zhang H , Cheng J J , Liu C . The effect of off-farm employment on forestland transfer: an analysis based on endogenous perspective with 1 497 households dataset from 9 provinces. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018, (1): 122- 131. | |
张红, 周黎安, 徐晋涛, 等. 林权改革、基层民主与投资激励. 经济学(季刊), 2016, (3): 845- 868. | |
Zhang H , Zhou L A , Xu J T , et al. Property rights reform, grassroots democracy and investment incentives. China Economic Quarterly, 2016, (3): 845- 868. | |
张宗毅, 杜志雄. 土地流转一定会导致"非粮化"吗?——基于全国1 740个种植业家庭农场监测数据的实证分析. 经济学动态, 2015, (9): 63- 69. | |
Zhang Z Y , Du Z X . Will land transfer necessarily lead to ″non-grain growing″? —An empirical analysis based on the monitoring data of 1 740 farming family farms across the country. Economic Perspectives, 2015, (9): 63- 69. | |
郑旭媛, 徐志刚. 资源禀赋约束、要素替代与诱致性技术变迁——以中国粮食生产的机械化为例. 经济学(季刊), 2016, 16 (1): 45- 66. | |
Zheng X Y , Xu Z G . Endowment restriction, factor substitution and induced technological innovation: a case research on the grain producing mechanization in China. China Economic Quarterly, 2016, (1): 45- 66. | |
钟甫宁, 陆五一, 徐志刚. 农村劳动力外出务工不利于粮食生产吗?——对农户要素替代与种植结构调整行为及约束条件的解析. 中国农村经济, 2016, (7): 36- 47. | |
Zhong F N , Lu W Y , Xu Z G . Labor migration is unfavorable for grain production? Analysis on behavior of farm household's factors substitution and planting structure adjustment and constraints. Chinese Rural Economy, 2016, (7): 36- 47. | |
祝华军, 楼江, 田志宏. 农业种植结构调整: 政策响应、相对收益与农机服务——来自湖北省541户农民玉米种植面积调整的实证. 农业技术经济, 2018, (1): 111- 121. | |
Zhu H J , Lou J , Tian Z H . Adjustment of agricultural planting structure: policy response, relative income and agricultural machinery service: empirical study on corn planting area adjustment of 541 farmers in Hubei Province. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018, (1): 111- 121. | |
Ji Y Q , Hu X Z , Zhu J , et al. Demographic change and its impact on farmers' field production decisions. China Economic Review, 2017, 43, 64- 71.
doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.01.006 |
|
Lin J Y . Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China. American Economic Review, 1992, 82 (1): 34- 51. | |
Qiu T W , Boris Choy S T , Li S P , et al. Does land renting-in reduce grain production? Evidence from rural China. Land Use Policy, 2020, 90, 104311.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104311 |
|
Tian X , Yi F J , Yu X H . Rising cost of labor and transformations in grain production in China. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2019, 12 (1): 158- 172.
doi: 10.1108/CAER-04-2018-0067 |
|
Xie L , Berck P , Xu J . The effect on forestation of the collective forest tenure reform in China. China Economic Review, 2016, 38, 116- 129.
doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2015.12.005 |
|
Zhang X B , Yang J , Thomas R . Mechanization outsourcing clusters and division of labor in Chinese agriculture. China Economic Review, 2017, 43, 184- 195.
doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.01.012 |
Viewed | ||||||
Full text |
|
|||||
Abstract |
|
|||||