Abstract:

Objective: The direct and indirect effects of the Grain for Green project on the income of households at different poverty levels were analyzed to explore whether the project can effectively improve the income of households at different poverty levels and alleviate rural poverty in the project area,and to understand the mechanisms that the project influences household income,in order to provide a scientific basis for a long-term mechanism of ecological poverty reduction by the project. Method: Based on the survey data of Chinese household income in 2013, excluding samples of urban household and migrant population,and provinces where the project was not implemented,a sample of 7 150 rural households was retained and an endogenous switching regression model (ESR) was used to construct the "counter factual" analytical framework. The average treatment effect of participation in the land conversion project on the household income of farmers at different poverty levels was estimated respectively to test whether the land conversion project can effectively improve the income level of households who made land conversion. Based on the type of income,the direct and indirect effects were further analyzed of the project on the household income of farmers with different levels of poverty,therefore clarifying the mechanisms the impacts of the land conversion project on the income of households who made the land conversion. Result: Based on counterfactual assumptions,in terms of overall household income,participating in the conversion project significantly increased the family income level of general poor farmers and severely poor farmers,and the income increase of severely poor households was more obvious; The direct effect of the project on household income was shown as follows:compared to the counter factual,the per capita transfer income and per capita operating income of severely poor peasant households participating in land conversion increased by 15.9% and 18.6% respectively; The indirect effects of the project on the income of households at different poverty levels were shown as follows:the per capita wage income of non-poor households,general poor households and severely poor households increased by 4.0%,7.9% and 24.6% respectively. Conclusion: The project has increased the family income of general poor farmers and severely poor farmers. Among them,per capita transfer income and per capita operating income have a direct impact on the family income of severely poor farmers. Per capita wage income has a positive indirect effect on households at different poverty levels,and as poverty deepens,the indirect effect grows. Therefore,the implementation of policies for differentiated subsidies for households at different poverty levels and training on knowledge and skills for employment in non-agricultural production can make more effective and rational use of the project funds. It provides a useful idea for the project to achieve the goal of income increase and poverty alleviation,and to establish a long-term mechanism for poverty alleviation.

Key words: Grain for Green Project, household income, poverty alleviation, endogenous switching regression model, average treatment effect