农户林地转出规模的门限效应——基于集体林权制度改革监测数据的实证检验

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20200315

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: The study is intended to reveal the threshold effect of household forestland transfer. It is important to identify the threshold characteristics and the non-linear effects of key factors in different threshold ranges for supporting decision-making for improving forestland transfer policy. Method: Based on the monitoring data of collective forest tenure reform of the State Forestry Administration in 2016 and survey data of farmers in Guangdong and Guizhou provinces in 2017, the panel data on the size of transferred household forestland was constructed for different forest blocks. From the perspective of power matching, the threshold variable is the size of household forestland management, and the core explanatory variable is the level of family income, the number of household labor force and whether they have forest certificate or not. Using threshold regression model, empirical tests of the threshold effect of the size of household forestland transfer and the non-linear influence of various factors were conducted. Result: Firstly, when the household income level and the number of household farming labors are taken as the core explanatory variables, the threshold estimates show that there are double thresholds for the size of household forestland management, with the values of 18 hm² and 20 hm², respectively. When the core explanatory variable is whether or not the forest ownership certificate exists, there exists a single threshold for the size of household forestland management, with a value of 33.4 hm². Secondly, When the size of household forestland management is more than 18 hm², the level of family income has a significant positive impact on the size of forestland transfer. When the size of forestland management is larger than 20 hm², its influence coefficient is obviously larger. When the size of household forestland management is less than 18 hm², the number of household farming labor has a significant negative impact on the size of forestland transfer. However, when the size of forestland management is more than 18 hm² and less than 20 hm², it has a significant positive impact. When the size of household forestland management is less than or greater than 33.4 hm², whether the ownership certificate has a negative and positive impact on the size of transferred forestland, but not significant. Samples were grouped according to the threshold value of household forestland management and then regression analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the estimated results, the significance of the influence of each core explanatory variable is different from that of the threshold estimation, but the direction is the same. Conclusion: Household forestland transfer is not unidirectional or linear, and the role of key factors has a threshold effect. Only at a certain level of forestland management, the increase of household income significantly promotes the size of forestland transfer. It shows that reducing the dependence of farmers on forestland may not be able to promote the transter of forestland. Within the threshold range for different sizes of forestland management, the impact of household farming labor force on the size of household forestland transfer is different. Transfer of rural labor force may not be able to promote the transfer of forestland. The effect of certification of forestland ownership on the size of household forestland transfer is also bidirectional and not significant, implying that the stabilization of forestland property rights is less important than policy expectation in promoting forestland transfer. Improving the policy on forestland transfer needs to pay attention to the threshold effect of household behavior. Relaxation of restrictions may not promote the transfer of rural forestland and may even have the opposite effect. Institutional supply can take into account the different demands of forestland transfer under different conditions. Increasing the flexibility and priority of policy implementation improves the institutional performance and promotes large-scale management of forestland.

Key words: forestland transfer, nonlinear, threshold effect, scale management

CLC Number:

F307.2

Ziqiang Zhang,Yi Li,Lan Gao. Threshold Effect of the Size of Household Forestland Transfer——Empirical Test Based on Monitoring Data of Collective Forest Tenure Reform[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(3): 144-155.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1

Variable assignment and descriptive statistics"

变量 Variables	简称 Abbreviation	变量说明 Variable description	均值 Mean	标准差 Std. deviation
转出林地面积Transferred forest area/hm²	Outflow area	农户已转出林地面积 Total area of farmer’s transferred forestland	8.628	20.512
营林规模Forestland management area/hm²	Forestland	农户现有林地经营面积 Farmer’s forestland management area	5.625	15.581
务农劳动力规模Scale of farming labor force	Labor	家庭务农劳动力数Number of household labors	2.860	1.371
家庭收入水平Household income level	Income	家庭收入在村里水平的自我评价：较高=3，中等=2，较低=1 Self-evaluation of family income at village level: higher=3, medium=2, lower=1	1.914	0.529
是否有林权证 Whether it has forest ownership certificate	Certificate	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.901	0.3
年龄Age/a	Age	户主年龄Age of head of household	54.432	10.883
受教育程度Level of education	Edu	户主受教育程度：小学及以下=6，初中=9，高中=12，大专或本科及以上=16 Educational level of householders: primary school and below=6, junior high school=9, senior high school=12, junior college or undergraduate or above=16	8.352	2.358
是否为用材林Whether it is timber forest or not	Timber	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.264	0.441
是否为经济林 Whether it is economic forest or not	Economic forest	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.171	0.377
是否为竹林Whether it is bamboo or not	Bamboo	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.075	0.264
近3年是否有森林灾害Whether it has forest disaster in the past three years or not	Disaster	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.014	0.116
林地是否流转给本村村民Whether the woodland is transferred to the villagers or not	Native villager	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.250	0.434
是否有林权抵押贷款Whether participation in forestry mortgage loan or not	Mortgage	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.030	0.171
是否参与森林保险Whether participation in forest insurance or not	Insurance	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, not=0	0.382	0.486
对采伐管制满意度 Satisfaction with logging control	Logging	满意=3，一般=2，不满意=1 Satisfaction=3, general=2, dissatisfaction=1	1.950	1.250

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变量Variables	频数Frequency	频率Rate(%)
营林规模Forestland management area/hm²
< 2	87	37.8
[2, 7]	76	33.0
(7, 14]	22	9.6
>14	45	19.6
转出林地面积Transferred forest area/hm²
< 2	63	27.4
[2, 7]	83	36.1
(7, 14]	34	14.8
>14	50	21.7
转出地块数Number of transferred plots
< 2	103	44.9
[2, 4]	115	49.7
>4	12	5.4

解释变量 Explanatory variables	门限个数 Threshold number	F	P	Crit10	Crit5	Crit1
Income	双重门限Double threshold	26.99^***	0.000	12.717	15.199	19.337
Income	三重门限Triple threshold	5.94	0.470	62.857	95.217	140.190
Labor	双重门限Double threshold	15.19^**	0.020	9.440	10.285	22.536
Labor	三重门限Triple threshold	7.15	0.100	5.650	17.730	17.729
Certificate	单一门限Single threshold	10.15	0.095	9.856	12.675	15.926
Certificate	双重门限Double threshold	3.40	0.600	7.658	7.658	7.658

解释变量Explanatory variables	门限估计值 Estimate of threshold value	置信区间(95%) Confidence interval(95%)
Income	γ₁=18	[16, 20]
Income	γ₂=20	[18, 21]
Labor	γ₁=18	[16, 20]
Labor	γ₂=20	[18, 21]
Certificate	γ₁=33.4	[32, 37]

变量Variables	系数1 Coefficient 1	标准误1 Standard error 1	系数2 Coefficient 2	标准误2 Standard error 2	系数3 Coefficient 3	标准误3 Standard error 3
Age	-0.063	0.048	-0.104^*	0.059	-0.118^*	0.060
Edu	0.079	0.213	0.142	0.260	0.132	0.263
Labor	-0.846^**	0.395			-0.666	0.497
Income			1.702^*	1.002	1.918^*	1.019
Timber	0.585	1.818	0.407	2.229	-0.116	2.336
Economic forest	2.054	1.783	1.329	2.185	0.143	2.299
Bamboo	-0.853	2.464	0.806	2.994	1.302	3.132
Certificate	0.671	1.576	-0.408	1.938
Disaster	-1.614	3.252	-1.196	3.994	-1.165	4.102
Native villager	-0.380	1.245	-0.862	1.512	-1.541	1.562
Mortgage	-76.212^***	7.601	-50.145^***	8.917	-36.974	8.598
Insurance	0.792	1.620	1.254	1.974	1.766^***	2.018
Logging	0.180	0.488	-0.498	0.583	-0.625	0.599
Constant	3.246	4.537	6.853	5.494	8.540	5.636
Income(forestland < 18 hm²)	0.874	0.834
Income(18 hm²≤forestland < 20 hm²)	4.157^**	1.890
Income(20 hm²≤forestland)	28.491^***	2.526
Labor (forestland < 18 hm²)			-0.943^*	0.485
Labor (18 hm² ≤forestland < 20 hm²)			4.022^***	1.336
Labor (20 hm²≤forestland)			-0.019	0.816
Certificate(forestland < 33.4 hm²)					-1.683	1.982
Certificate(33.4 hm²≤forestland)					4.015	4.040
sigma_u	61.532		75.984		78.711
sigma_e	82.454		101.17		104.216
rho	0.358		0.361		0.363
F	1.62^***		1.48^**		1.51^**

变量 Variables	Forestland < 18 hm² 固定效应 Fixed effect	18 hm²≤Forestland < 20 hm² 固定效应 Fixed effect	Forestland≥20 hm² 随机效应 Random effects	Forestland < 33.4 hm² 固定效应 Fixed effect	Forestland≥33.4 hm² 随机效应 Random effects
Labor	-0.013 (2.639)	0.055^* (5.322)	-5.472 (67.813)
Income	0.287^* (5.398)	0.374^* (7.540)	3.184 (65.882)
Certificate				-1.102 (30.094)	1.654 (21.641)
Control variables	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Constant	-0.575 (29.422)	0.504 (57.451)	60.709 (771.711)	6.584 (85.961)	13.466 (231.437)
sigma_u	32.178	24.752	52.099	79.528	133.563
sigma_e	33.976	51.364	68.376	104.671	39.993
rho	0.473	0.511 6	0.367	0.366	0.918
F	1.78^*	1.64^*		2.57^***
Wald			17.64^*		76.09^***

Threshold Effect of the Size of Household Forestland Transfer——Empirical Test Based on Monitoring Data of Collective Forest Tenure Reform

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