关键词: 木浆, 进口风险, 进口对外依存度, 进口市场集中度, 进口国际市场占有率, 乘法指数

Abstract:

Objective: China is the largest country in the production and consumption of paper and paperboard in the world, and the paper industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy. As the basic raw material of the paper industry, wood pulp has become the largest import category of China’s wood forest products since 1995. It has the characteristics of large import volume, rapid growth and high prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the import risk of China’s wood pulp to ensure the supply chain security of the paper industry chain. Method: After standardizing and determining the algorithm of the import market concentration ratio, the import dependence in consumption, and the import international market share of China’s wood pulp, and scientifically setting the risk zone of China’s wood pulp import risk caused by them, the multiplication index and additive index of China’s wood pulp import risk were constructed with their risk zone set scientifically, the reasonable evaluation method of China’s wood pulp import risk index was determined through comparison. Result: The import dependence in consumption, the import market concentration ratio, and the import international market share of China’s wood pulp, are the core factors that lead to the import risk of China’s wood pulp. The import dependence in consumption of China’s wood pulp appeared a slow decline trend in reducing fluctuation and at high level from 2000 to 2021, and it was 62.34% in 2021, the import risk caused by it was in the high risk zone, close to the extremely high risk zone. The import market concentration ratio CR₈ of China’s wood pulp presented a slow decline trend in fluctuations and at a high level from 2000 to 2021, and it was 89.69% in 2021, the import risk caused by it was in the extremely high risk zone. The import international market share of China’s wood pulp was rising rapidly from 2000 to 2021, and it reached 43.28% in 2021, the import risk caused by it was in the high-risk zone. The overall evaluation method of China’s wood pulp import risk based on multi-dimension should adopt the factor multiplication method, but no matter the multiplicative index or additive index constructed, it shows that China’s wood pulp import risk is in the extremely high risk zone. Conclusion: In order to reduce the import risk of China’s wood pulp, it is proposed to promote the construction of industrial pulp forest to expand the supply of domestic wood pulp, guide the domestic demand of pulp and paper from the production, consumption and export of paper and paperboard, adjust the product structure of wood pulp and paper trade by replacing pulp with paper, and optimize the import source market structure of wood pulp by increasing overseas investment.

Key words: wood pulp, import dependence, import risk, import market concentration ratio, import international market share, multiplicative index