外生激励和价值认同对农户持续参与森林碳汇项目意愿的影响

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210818

林业科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (8): 176-188.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210818

外生激励和价值认同对农户持续参与森林碳汇项目意愿的影响

朱爱琴¹,顾蕾^1,^2,^3,*,朱玮强⁴,冯贻勇⁵,陈伟¹,周国模^3,⁶

1. 浙江农林大学经济管理学院杭州 311300
2. 浙江省乡村振兴研究院杭州 311300
3. 浙江省森林生态系统碳循环与固碳减排重点实验室杭州 311300
4. 南京农业大学经济管理学院南京 210095
5. 浙江省临海市涌泉镇农业综合服务中心临海 317021
6. 浙江农林大学环境与资源学院杭州 311300

收稿日期:2020-11-11 出版日期:2021-08-25 发布日期:2021-09-30
通讯作者: 顾蕾
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(18BGL174);国家自然科学基金项目(71873126);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ19G030001)

Impact of Exogenous Incentives and Value Recognition on Farmers' Willingness of Continuous Participation in Forest Carbon Sequestration Project

Aiqin Zhu¹,Lei Gu^1,^2,^3,*,Weiqiang Zhu⁴,Yiyong Feng⁵,Wei Chen¹,Guomo Zhou^3,⁶

1. College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University Hangzhou 311300
2. Zhejiang Rural Revitalization Research Institute Hangzhou 311300
3. Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Forest Ecosystem Carbon Cycle and Carbon Sequestration and Emission Reduction Hangzhou 311300
4. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing 210095
5. Comprehensive Agricultural Service Center of Yongquan Town, Linhai County, Zhejiang Province Linhai 317021
6. College of Environment and Resources, Zhejiang A&F University Hangzhou 311300

Received:2020-11-11 Online:2021-08-25 Published:2021-09-30
Contact: Lei Gu

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 森林碳汇减排量是国家碳市场的重要组成部分，农户作为森林碳汇项目的执行者和利益相关者，识别农户持续参与森林碳汇项目的内、外生因素对于项目的稳定推进和减缓全球气候变化具有重要意义。方法: 在内、外生激励理论的基础上，探究影响农户持续参与森林碳汇项目的内、外生因素，构建外生激励的"政策关注" "项目补贴" "榜样效应"和"增汇培训"4个维度以及价值认同的"林地价值最大化""碳汇产业认可"和"减缓气候变化"3个维度；基于全国首批开展国家核证自愿减排量（CCER）竹林经营碳汇项目的浙江省遂昌县和景宁县，利用417份已参与首期碳汇项目农户的实地调查数据，通过统计性描述定性分析了外生激励、价值认同与农户持续参与意愿的关系；采用二元Probit模型和中介效应模型，实证分析外生激励、价值认同对农户持续参与森林碳汇项目影响的方向和程度以及价值认同的中介作用。结果: 交叉分析结果表明：外生激励、价值认同因素对农户持续参与意愿有促进作用的比例均达到98%以上，不同的外生激励、价值认同因素均在5%的显著性水平下通过了卡方检验，说明对农户持续参与森林碳汇项目意愿具有显著影响。实证分析结果表明：1）外生激励中"政策关注"在10%的显著性水平下正向影响农户持续参与意愿，"项目补贴" "榜样效应""增汇培训"均在5%的显著性水平下对农户持续参与具有正向影响；2）价值认同中"减缓气候变化"在1%的显著性水平下对农户持续参与森林碳汇项目具有正向影响，"林地价值最大化" "碳汇产业认可"对农户持续参与意愿的影响并不显著；3）外生激励对价值认同具有显著正向影响，价值认同在外生激励和农户持续参与森林碳汇项目之间存在显著的部分中介效应，占比为25.99%。结论: 农户持续参与森林碳汇项目是外生激励、内生价值认同各自作用和共同作用的结果。外生激励中的"政策关注" "项目补贴" "榜样效应""增汇培训"和价值认同中的"减缓气候变化"是影响农户持续参与的重要因素。外生激励对价值认同具有显著正向影响，价值认同在外生激励和农户持续参与之间存在显著的部分中介效应。

关键词: 森林碳汇项目, 外生激励, 价值认同, 农户, 持续参与意愿

Abstract:

Objective: Forest carbon sequestration and emission reduction is an important part of national carbon trading. As the executors and stakeholder of the forest carbon sequestration project, identifying the endogenous and exogenous factors of farmers' continuous participation in the forest carbon sequestration project is of great significance for the stable promotion of the project and the mitigation of global climate change. Method: Based on the theory of endogenous and exogenous incentives, explore the internal and exogenous factors that influence farmers' continuous participation in forest carbon sequestration projects. This article constructs four dimensions of exogenous incentives of "policy concern", "project subsidy", "model effect" and "carbon sequestration-increasing training", and the three dimensions of "forest land value maximization", "carbon sequestration industry recognition" and "mitigation of climate change" of value recognition. Based on 417 sets of field survey data of farmers who have participated in the first phase of carbon sequestration project of bamboo forest in Suichang and Jingning counties of Zhejiang Province that implemented the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER). The relationship among exogenous incentives, value recognition and farmers' willingness of continuous participation is analyzed by statistical description. Binary probit model and mediating effect model were used to analyze the direction and extent of the impact of exogenous incentive and value recognition on farmers' willingness to participate in forest carbon sequestration projects and the mediating role of value recognition. Result: The results of cross analysis showed that: the proportion of exogenous incentives and value recognition factors to promote farmers' willingness to participate in the sustainable development was more than 98%. The Chi square test at a significant level of 5% indicated that different exogenous incentive factors and value recognition factors had a significant impact on farmers' continuous participation in forest carbon sequestration projects. The empirical analysis showed that: 1) In exogenous incentives, "policy concern" had positive impacts on farmers' continuous participation at a significance level of 10%, "project subsidies", "role models" and "the carbon sequestration-increasing training" had positive impacts at a significance level of 5%. 2) The "mitigation of climate change" in value recognition had a positive impact on farmers' continuous participation at a significance level of 5%; while "maximum value of forest land" and "recognition of carbon sequestration industry" had no significant impact on farmers' continuous participation. 3) Exogenous incentives had a significant positive impact on value recognition. And value recognition had a significant partial (25.99%) role of mediating between exogenous incentives and farmers' continuous participation in forest carbon sequestration projects. Conclusion: Farmers' continuous participation in forest carbon sequestration projects is the result of joint impact by exogenous incentives and endogenous value recognition. "Policy concern", "project subsidy", "model effect"and"carbon sequestration-increasing training" in the exogenous incentives and "mitigation of climate change"in the value recognition are important factors affecting farmers' continuous participation. Exogenous incentives have a significant positive effect on value recognition, and value recognition has a significant role in partially mediating between exogenous incentives and farmers' continuous participation in carbon sequestration projects.

Key words: forest carbon sequestration project, exogenous incentives, value recognition, farmers, continuous participation willingness

中图分类号:

F307.2

朱爱琴,顾蕾,朱玮强,冯贻勇,陈伟,周国模. 外生激励和价值认同对农户持续参与森林碳汇项目意愿的影响[J]. 林业科学, 2021, 57(8): 176-188.

Aiqin Zhu,Lei Gu,Weiqiang Zhu,Yiyong Feng,Wei Chen,Guomo Zhou. Impact of Exogenous Incentives and Value Recognition on Farmers' Willingness of Continuous Participation in Forest Carbon Sequestration Project[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(8): 176-188.

图/表 7

图1

表1

表2

表3

外生激励、价值认同与农户持续参与森林碳汇项目"

因素 Factors		问题描述 Factor description	问题回答 (农户数) Answer (Number)	持续参与的农户数(占比, %) Number of continuous participation farmers (Proportion, %)		卡方 Chi square (P)
因素 Factors		问题描述 Factor description	问题回答 (农户数) Answer (Number)	否No	是Yes	卡方 Chi square (P)
外生激励 Exogenous incentives	政策关注 Policy concerns	政府对森林碳汇项目的关注和支持是否重要 Is it important for the government to pay attention to and support the forest carbon sequestration project	不重要No 135	8(5.93)	127(94.07)	13.419(0.000)
	政策关注 Policy concerns		重要Yes 282	1(0.35)	281(99.65)	13.419(0.000)
	项目补贴 Project subsidy	碳汇项目补贴和其他补助及优惠是否重要 Are carbon sequestration subsidies and other subsidies and preferences important	不重要No 114	8(7.02)	106(92.98)	17.543(0.000)
	项目补贴 Project subsidy		重要Yes 303	1(0.33)	302(99.67)	17.543(0.000)
	榜样效应 Model effect	同村人对碳汇项目的态度和参与积极性是否重要 Are the attitude and participation enthusiasm of villagers important	不重要No 144	8(5.56)	136(94.44)	12.022(0.001)
	榜样效应 Model effect		重要Yes 273	1(0.37)	272(99.63)	12.022(0.001)
	增汇培训 Carbon sequestration-increasing training	项目组织的增汇技术培训等是否重要 Is carbon sequestration-increasing training organized by the project important	不重要No 62	5(8.06)	57(91.94)	12.031(0.001)
	增汇培训 Carbon sequestration-increasing training		重要Yes 355	4(1.13)	351(98.87)	12.031(0.001)
价值认同 Value recognition	林地价值最大化 Maximum value of forest land	碳汇项目能提高林地总收入，产生新价值 Carbon sequestration project can increase the total income of forest land and generate new value	不认可No 68	6(8.82)	62(91.18)	17.093(0.000)
	林地价值最大化 Maximum value of forest land		认可Yes 349	3(0.86)	346(99.14)	17.093(0.000)
	碳汇产业认可 Recognition of carbon sequestration industry	碳汇交易是未来发展的一个新产业，愿意率先参与 Carbon exchange trading is a new industry in the future and is willing to take the lead	不认可No 79	7(8.86)	72(91.14)	20.734(0.000)
	碳汇产业认可 Recognition of carbon sequestration industry		认可Yes 338	2(0.59)	336(99.41)	20.734(0.000)
	减缓气候变化 Mitigation of climate change	愿意为缓解全球气候变化做贡献 Willing to contribute to the mitigation of global climate change	否No 79	7(8.86)	79(91.14)	20.734(0.000)
	减缓气候变化 Mitigation of climate change		是Yes 338	2(0.59)	338(99.41)	20.734(0.000)

表3

表4

变量含义与赋值"

变量 Variables		定义和赋值 Definition and assignment	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
被解释变量Explained variable
	农户持续参与意愿 Farmers’ willingness to participate continuously	持续参与碳汇项目意愿0=否；1=是 Willingness to continue to participate in carbon sequestration projects 0 = no; 1 = yes	0.98	0.15
解释变量Explanatory variables
外生激励 Exogenous incentives	政策关注 Policy concerns	政府对森林碳汇项目的关注和支持是否重要 0=不重要；1=重要 Is it important for the government to pay attention to and support forest carbon sequestration projects 0 = unimportant; 1 = important	0.68	0.47
	项目补贴 Project subsidy	碳汇项目补贴和其他补助及优惠是否重要 0=不重要；1=重要 Are carbon sequestration subsidies and other subsidies and preferences important 0 = unimportant；1 = important	0.73	0.45
	榜样效应 Model effect	同村人对碳汇项目的态度和参与积极性是否重要0=不重要；1=重要 Is the attitude and participation enthusiasm of villagers important 0 = unimportant; 1 = important	0.65	0.48
	增汇培训 Carbon sequestration-increasing training	项目组织的增汇技术培训等是否重要 0=不重要；1=重要 Is carbon sequestration-increasing training organized by the project important 0 = unimportant; 1 = important	0.85	0.36
价值认同 Value recognition	林地价值最大化 Maximum value of forest land	是否认可碳汇项目能提高林地总收入，产生新的价值0=不认可；1=认可 Whether the carbon sequestration project can increase the total income of forest land and generate new value 0 =no; 1 =yes	0.84	0.37
	碳汇产业认可 Recognition of carbon sequestration industry	是否认可碳汇交易是未来发展的一个新产业，愿意率先参与0=不认可；1=认可 Whether to recognize carbon sequestration trading is a new industry in the future development, and is willing to take the lead 0 =no; 1 =yes	0.81	0.39
	减缓气候变化 Mitigation of climate change	是否愿意为缓解全球气候变化做贡献 0=否；1=是 Willing to contribute to the mitigation of global climate change 0 =no; 1 =yes	0.81	0.39
控制变量Control variables
个体特征 Individual characteristics	年龄 Age/a	连续变量 Continuous variable	55.33	9.97
	受教育程度 Years of education/a	连续变量 Continuous variable	7.25	3.04
	是否兼业 Part-time or not	0=不兼业；1=兼业 0=no; 1=yes	0.49	0.50
家庭特征 Family characteristics	家庭年收入 Annual family income/10⁴yuan	1: ≤5; 2:(5, 10]; 3:(10, 15]; 4: >15	1.85	1.02
	劳动人口数 The amount of labor	连续变量 Continuous variable	2.15	1.24
	是否雇工 Employ workers or not	0=不雇佣工人；1=雇佣工人 0=no; 1=yes	0.39	0.49
	家与村委会距离 The distance between home and village committee/km	连续变量 Continuous variable	1.09	1.25
林地特征 Woodland characteristics	毛竹林占家庭林地比重 The proportion of Moso bamboo forest in domestic forest land(%)	连续变量 Continuous variable	55.82	31.57
林地特征 Woodland characteristics	林地所有权 Property of forest land	0=流转林地；1=集体所分 0=Forest land circulation; 1=Collective division	0.74	0.44

表4

表5

农户持续参与森林碳汇项目影响因素模型的回归结果①"

变量 Variable			农户持续参与森林碳汇项目 Farmers’ continuous participation in forest carbon sequestration projects
变量 Variable			模型(1) Model(1)	模型(2) Model(2)	模型(3) Model(3)	模型(4) Model(4)
外生激励 Exogenous incentives	政策关注 Policy concerns		0.023^**		0.013^*
	政策关注 Policy concerns		(0.009)		(0.008)
	项目补贴 Project subsidy		0.039^***		0.027^**
	项目补贴 Project subsidy		(0.012)		(0.011)
	榜样效应 Model effect		0.027^***		0.020^**
	榜样效应 Model effect		(0.010)		(0.008)
	增汇培训 Carbon sequestration-increasing training		0.028^**		0.026^**
	增汇培训 Carbon sequestration-increasing training		(0.013)		(0.013)
	外生激励因子 Exogenous incentive factors					0.022^***(0.006)
价值认同 Value recognition	林地价值最大化 Maximum value of forest land			0.033^***	0.015
	林地价值最大化 Maximum value of forest land			(0.012)	(0.009)
	碳汇产业认可 Recognition of carbon sequestration industry			0.027^**	0.005
	碳汇产业认可 Recognition of carbon sequestration industry			(0.013)	(0.008)
	减缓气候变化 Mitigation of climate change			0.030^**	0.024^***
	减缓气候变化 Mitigation of climate change			(0.012)	(0.009)
	价值认同因子 Value recognition factors					0.011^**(0.004)
个体特征 Individual characteristics	年龄Age		-0.000	-0.000	-0.000	-0.000
	年龄Age		(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
	受教育程度Education level		0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001
	受教育程度Education level		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.001)
	兼业情况Part-time employment		-0.005	-0.016	-0.013^*	-0.012
	兼业情况Part-time employment		(0.009)	(0.011)	(0.007)	(0.009)
家庭特征 Family characteristics	家庭年收入(以5万元以下为参照组)Annual family income(with reference of less than 50 000 yuan)	50 000~100 000	-0.001	0.006	-0.005	-0.002
		50 000~100 000	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.014)
		100 000~150 000	-0.031	-0.027	-0.038	-0.028
		100 000~150 000	(0.031)	(0.033)	(0.034)	(0.029)
		＞150 000	-0.011	-0.007	-0.006	-0.005
		＞150 000	(0.020)	(0.023)	(0.016)	(0.018)
	家庭劳动人口数 The amount of labor		-0.005	-0.005	-0.002	-0.005
	家庭劳动人口数 The amount of labor		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)
	雇工情况 Employ workers or not		0.031^**	0.031^**	0.020^*	0.022^*
	雇工情况 Employ workers or not		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.012)
	家距村委会距离 The distance between home and village committee		-0.002	-0.002	-0.003	-0.001
	家距村委会距离 The distance between home and village committee		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.002)
林地特征 Woodland characteristics	毛竹林占比 Area of Moso bamboo forest		-0.007	-0.000	-0.003	-0.003
	毛竹林占比 Area of Moso bamboo forest		(0.011)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.009)
	林地产权 Property of forest land		-0.017	-0.018	-0.020	-0.024^*
	林地产权 Property of forest land		(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.013)	(0.014)
Log pseudolikelihood			-21.963	-26.596	-19.175	-20.010
Pseudo R²			0.494	0.388	0.558	0.537
P			0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000

表5

表6

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指标 Index	遂昌县 Suichang county					景宁县 Jingning county
样本村 Sample villeges	北界 Beijie	高坪 Gaoping	金竹 Jinzhu	应村 Yingcun	新路湾 Xinluwan	大漈 Daji	东坑 Dongkeng	景南 Jingnan	澄照 Chengzhao
样本量 Sample size	65	60	30	66	69	35	34	25	33
百分比 Percentage(%)	15.59	14.39	7.19	15.83	16.55	8.39	8.15	6.00	7.91

特征 Features		分类 Classification	样本量 Sample size	占比 Percentage(%)
个体特征 Individual characteristics	年龄 Age/a	≤45	58	13.91
		(45, 60]	229	54.92
		>60	130	31.18
	受教育程度 Education level	小学及以下Primary school and below	178	42.69
		初中Junior middle school	191	45.80
		高中及以上High school and above	48	11.51
	兼业情况 Part-time employment	1=只从事农业 1=Only engaged in agriculture	214	51.32
		2=农业为主，非农为辅 2= Agriculture as the main part and non-agriculture as the supplement	79	18.94
		3=非农为主，农业为辅 3=Non-agriculture as the main part and agriculture as the supplement	89	21.34
		4=只从事非农工作 4=Only engaged in non-agriculture	35	8.39
家庭特征 Family characteristics	家庭年收入 Annual family income/10⁴ yuan	≤5	205	49.16
		(5, 10]	119	28.54
		(10, 15]	45	10.79
		>15	48	11.51
	劳动人口数 The amount of labor	0	13	3.12
		(0, 2]	341	81.77
		>3	63	15.11
	雇佣工人数 Number of employed workers	0	256	61.39
		1	159	38.13
		>1	2	0.48
	家与村委会距离 The distance between home and village committee/km	≤1	308	73.86
		(1, 2]	60	14.39
		(2, 5]	47	11.27
		>5	2	0.48
林地特征 Woodland characteristics	毛竹林面积 Area of Moso bamboo forest/hm²	≤0.67	186	44.60
		(0.67, 2]	153	36.69
		>2	78	18.71
	林地产权 Property of forest land	1=集体所分 1=Collective division	283	67.87
	林地产权 Property of forest land	0=林地流转 0=Forest land circulation	134	32.13

变量 Variable	模型(5) Model(5)		模型(6) Model(6)		模型(7) Model(7)		中介效应占比 Proportion of mediating effect
	持续参与 Continuous participation		价值认同 Value recognition		持续参与 Continuous participation
	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Std.error	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Std. error	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Std.error
外生激励因子 Exogenous incentive factors	0.044^***	0.01	0.335^***	0.05	0.033^***	0.01	25.99%
价值认同因子 Value recognition factors					0.034^***	0.01	25.99%
控制变量 Control variable			已控制 Controlled
R²	0.112		0.183		0.157

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外生激励和价值认同对农户持续参与森林碳汇项目意愿的影响

Impact of Exogenous Incentives and Value Recognition on Farmers' Willingness of Continuous Participation in Forest Carbon Sequestration Project

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