林业对生态文明的贡献及其“结构微笑曲线”

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20200717

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 测算林业及其三次产业对生态文明的贡献，并比较林业与其他产业对生态文明贡献的差异程度，以利于管理者掌握林业对生态文明作用的客观规律，为科学制定产业差异化发展战略、助推生态文明建设提供参考。方法: 基于2007—2016年10年数据，首先，运用PSIR-SEM方法对生态文明指标进行优化，确定生态文明指标权重；其次，采用Lotka-Volterra模型的"指标－指数"耦合法，通过指标及其权重测度阈值、绿值，依次对生态文明阶段和水平进行判定；第三，以生态文明水平为因变量，以农业、林业及其三次产业、畜牧业、渔业、工业、建筑业、交通业、运输业、科技服务业、生态环保治理业发展水平为自变量，构建回归模型估计林业及其三次产业对生态文明的作用影响系数；最后，通过"归一化"算法由回归系数算出林业及其三次产业对生态文明的贡献率。结果: 1）林业对生态文明的贡献为正向且最大，而工业的贡献为负向，林业、农业、生态环保治理业、科技服务业、工业、建筑业、交通运输业、畜牧业、渔业的贡献率依次降低；2）林业三次产业对生态文明的贡献率从大到小依次为林业第一产业（正向）、林业第三产业（正向）、林业第二产业（负向）。结论: 产业对生态文明的贡献率取决于产业的生态效益属性；林业三次产业对生态文明的贡献呈"结构微笑曲线"状。

关键词: 林业, 林业三次产业, 生态文明, 贡献率, 结构微笑曲线

Abstract:

Objective: Measuring forestry and its three industries' contributions to ecological civilization, and comparing the other industries' contributions with forestry's contribution are favorable for managers to grasp the objective regulations those forestry has on ecological civilization, which can also support some references for managers to scientifically put forward some differentiation strategies of developing industries to stimulate the construction of ecological civilization better. Method: With the data of ten years from 2007 to 2016, firstly, the indicators of ecological civilization were optimized and their weightings were also determined with the method of PSIR-SEM according to these indicators. Secondly, by means of the coupling from indicators to indexes of Lotka-Volterra symbiotic model, threshold values and green degrees were calculated to respectively judge "stage and level" for ecological civilization in order based on the indicators and their weightings. Thirdly, the level of ecological civilization was put as the dependent variable and the levels of agriculture, forestry and its three industries, graziery, fishery, industrial, construction, transportation, science and technology, ecological environmental protection were put as the independent variables, the regression model was then built to estimate the coefficients of forestry and its three industries to ecological civilization. Finally, the contribution rates of forestry and its three industries to ecological civilization were calculated on basis of coefficients. Result: 1) The contribution rate of forestry to ecological civilization was positive and the largest, while the contribution rate of industry to ecological civilization was negative. The contribution rate of forestry, agriculture, ecological treat, science and technology, industry, construction, transportation, graziery and fishery to ecological civilization was decreasing successively. 2)The contribution rates of forestry three industries to ecological civilization from large to small were forestry primary industry (positive), forestry tertiary industry(positive)and forestry secondary industry(negative). Conclusion: The contribution rates of industries to ecological civilization depend on ecological benefits property of industries. The contribution rates of forestry three industries to ecological civilization present the feature of a "structure smiling curve".

Key words: forestry, forestry three industries, ecological civilization, contribution rates, structure smiling curve

中图分类号:

廖冰,张智光. 林业对生态文明的贡献及其“结构微笑曲线”[J]. 林业科学, 2020, 56(7): 163-174.

Bing Liao,Zhiguang Zhang. Forestry's Contribution to Ecological Civilization and Its "Structure Smiling Curve"[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(7): 163-174.

图/表 8

表1

基于SEM的生态文明最终指标及其权重系数"

生态文明潜变量 The unobservable variables of ecological civilization		生态文明最终指标 The final indicators of ecological civilization	指标路径系数 The path coefficients of indicators(λ_Xi)	指标权重 The weights of indicators(W_Xi)
社会经济和产业发展压力S_P-F The pressure of social economics and industrial development		F₁：第三产业产值占GDP比重The proportion of the tertiary industry production value in GDP(%)	0.256 9	0.037 5
		F₂：营林业产值占GDP比重The proportion of afforestation industry production value in GDP(%)	0.242 8	0.035 4
		F₃：科研经费投入强度Degree of the investment of R & D(%)	0.362 1	0.052 8
		F₄：高新技术产业产值High-tech industry production value/10⁸yuan	0.246 3	0.035 9
		F₅：高耗能产业产值占GDP比重The proportion of high-energy consumption industry production value in GDP(%)	\|－0.135 7\|	0.019 8
		F₆：人均废水排放量Per capita discharge of waste water/10⁴t	\|－0.112 5\|	0.016 4
		F₇：工业固体废弃物人均排放量Per capita discharge of industrial solid rubbish/10⁴t	\|－0.123 8\|	0.018 1
		F₈：工业废气人均排放量Per capita discharge of industrial waste gas/10⁴t	\|－0.147 9\|	0.021 6
资源环境容量状态S_S-C The state of the capacity of resource and environment	产业环境容量S_S-CF The capacity of industry environment	CF₁：人均森林面积Per capita forest area/10⁴hm²	0.210 4	0.030 7
		CF₂：人均水资源总量Per capita water resource gross amount/10⁸m³	0.110 1	0.016 1
		CF₃：人均草原面积Per capita grassland area/m²	0.100 6	0.014 7
		CF₄：人均耕地面积Per capita farmland area/10⁴hm²	0.170 4	0.024 9
		CF₅：人均公共绿地面积Per capita public green land area/m²	0.204 6	0.029 8
	生态环境容量S_S-CE The capacity of ecological environment	CE₁：森林覆盖率Forest coverage rate(%)	0.310 9	0.045 3
		CE₂：农作物受灾面积Crop disaster area/10³hm²	\|－0.086 3\|	0.012 6
		CE₃：空气质量达到二级以上天数占全年比The proportion of days with air quality above level two in the whole year(%)	0.241 7	0.035 3
		CE₄：自然灾害次数The number of natural disasters	\|－0.097 8\|	0.014 3
生态效益影响S_I-E The influence of ecological benefit		E₁：生态补水量Ecological water recharge/10⁸m³	\|－0.178 1\|	0.026 0
		E₂：生态公益林面积占比The proportion of ecological public forest area(%)	0.391 1	0.057 0
		E₃：湿地面积占国土面积比重The proportion of wetland area in national territorial area(%)	0.363 2	0.053 0
		E₄：单位面积O₂释放量Per square kilometer releasing of oxygen/(t·km^-2)	0.286 3	0.041 8
		E₅：单位面积CO₂排放量Per square kilometer discharge of carbon dioxide/(t·km^-2)	0.136 7	0.019 9
		E₆：森林灾害面积Forest disaster area/10³hm²	\|－0.163 9\|	0.023 9
		E₇：沙化土地面积Desertification land area/10⁴hm²	\|－0.183 4\|	0.026 7
人类生态文明响应S_R- R The response of ecological civilization for human beings	绿色产业响应S_R-RF The response of green industry	RF₁：新增造林面积Additional afforestation area/10⁴hm²	0.240 1	0.035 0
		RF₂：新增种草面积Additional grass-planting area/10³hm²	0.152 3	0.022 2
		RF₃：工业“三废”治理投资占比The proportion of the investment of treating industrial “waste gas, waste water, waste solid rubbish” in GDP(%)	0.216 8	0.031 6
		RF₄：清洁能源消耗量与能源消耗总量比The proportion of clean energy consumption in total energy consumption(%)	0.214 4	0.031 3
	生态建设响应S_R-RE The response of ecological construction	RE₁：环境污染治理投资占GDP比重The proportion of environment pollution treat investment in GDP(%)	0.225 6	0.032 9
		RE₂：自然保护区占国土面积比重The proportion of natural reserve in national territorial area(%)	0.203 6	0.029 7
		RE₃：新增水土流失治理面积Additional area of treating water and soil loss/10⁴hm²	0.152 4	0.022 2
		RE₄：森林灾害防治率The rates of forest disaster prevention and control(%)	0.162 8	0.023 7
		RE₅：用于环境保护和生态建设的财政支出占比The proportion of the financial expenditure for environmental protection and ecological construction in total financial expenditure(%)	0.239 0	0.034 9
		RE₆：生态文明政策文件数量The number of policies on ecological civilization	0.185 9	0.027 1

表1

表2

因变量和自变量说明及其描述性统计"

一级变量 The primary variables	二级变量 The secondary variables	均值 Mean	方差 Variance	极小值 Minimum	极大值 Maximum
Y(t)：生态文明建设程度The degree of ecological civilization construction	生态文明水平The level of ecological civilization construction	0.317	0.109	0.000	1.000
X₁(t)：农业发展水平The level of agriculture development	农业产值占GDP比重The proportion of agriculture production value in GDP(%)	0.340	0.235	0.000	1.000
X₂(t)：林业发展水平The level of forestry development	林业产值占GDP比重The proportion of forestry production value in GDP(%)	0.346	0.108	0.000	1.000
X₂₁(t)：林业第一产业发展水平The level of forestry primary development	林业第一产业产值占GDP比重The proportion of forestry primary industry in GDP(%)	0.119	0.101	0.000	1.000
X₂₂(t)：林业第二产业发展水平The level of forestry secondary development	林业第二产业产值占GDP比重The proportion of forestry secondary industry in GDP(%)	0.283	0.189	0.000	1.000
X₂₃(t)：林业第三产业发展水平The level of forestry tertiary development	林业第三产业产值占GDP比重The proportion of forestry tertiary industry in GDP(%)	0.307	0.253	0.000	1.000
X₃(t)：畜牧业发展水平The level of graziery development	畜牧业产值占GDP比重The proportion of graziery production value in GDP(%)	0.430	0.134	0.000	1.000
X₄(t)：渔业发展水平The level of fishery development	渔业产值占GDP比重The proportion of fishery production value in GDP(%)	0.341	0.103	0.000	1.000
X₅(t)：工业发展水平The level of industrial development	工业产值占GDP比重The proportion of industrial production value in GDP(%)	0.372	0.171	0.000	1.000
X₆(t)：建筑业发展水平The level of construction development	建筑业产值占GDP比重The proportion of construction production value in GDP(%)	0.331	0.141	0.000	1.000
X₇(t)：交通运输业发展水平The level of transportation development	交通运输业产值占GDP比重The proportion of transportation production value in GDP(%)	0.350	0.191	0.000	1.000
X₈(t)：科技服务业发展水平The level of science and technology development	研发经费支出占GDP比重The proportion of R & D expenditure in GDP(%)	0.600	0.118	0.000	1.000
X₉(t)：生态环保治理业发展水平The level of treating ecological environmental protection development	环境污染治理投资占GDP比重The proportion of the investment of treating environmental pollution in GDP(%)	0.423	0.127	0.000	1.000

表2

表3

图1

图2

表4

图3

图4

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自变量 Independent variables	回归系数 Coef.	标准误差 SE	t	显著性水平 Significance level	是否通过检验 Whether it passes the tests or not
农业产值占GDP比重The proportion of agriculture production value in GDP(%)	0.486^***(θ₁)	0.126	2.029	0.024	是Yes
林业产值占GDP比重The proportion of forestry production value in GDP(%)	0.694^*(θ₂)	0.006	2.295	0.027	是Yes
畜牧业产值占GDP比重The proportion of graziery production value in GDP(%)	－0.063^**(θ₃)	0.520	－2.085	0.018	是Yes
渔业产值占GDP比重The proportion of fishery production value in GDP(%)	－0.081^***(θ₄)	0.414	－1.931	0.003	是Yes
工业产值占GDP比重The proportion of industrial production value in GDP(%)	－0.323^**(θ₅)	0.124	－2.219	0.005	是Yes
建筑业产值占GDP比重The proportion of construction production value in GDP(%)	－0.228^*(θ₆)	0.325	－1.995	0.031	是Yes
交通运输业产值占GDP比重The proportion of transportation production value in GDP(%)	－0.171^***(θ₇)	0.059	－1.977	0.037	是Yes
研发经费支出占GDP比重The proportion of R & D expenditure in GDP(%)	0.272^**(θ₈)	0.054	2.168	0.042	是Yes
环境污染治理投资占GDP比重The proportion of the investment of treating environment pollution in GDP(%)	0.405^*(θ₉)	0.054	2.367	0.027	是Yes
常数项C Constant C	0.580	0.124	1.965	0.135
R²	0.995 7	Adjusted R²		0.981 4
F-statistic	920.513	Prob (F-statistic)		0.008

自变量 Independent variables	回归系数 Coef.	标准误差 SE	t	显著性水平 Significance level	是否通过检验 Whether it passes the tests or not
林业第一产业产值占林业总产值比重The proportion of forestry primary industry in forestry gross production value(%)	0.472^***(θ₂₁)	0.287	2.961	0.011	是Yes
林业第二产业产值占林业总产值比重The proportion of forestry secondary industry in forestry gross production value(%)	－0.317^**(θ₂₂)	0.652	－2.056	0.035	是Yes
林业第三产业产值占林业产值比重The proportion of forestry tertiary industry in forestry gross production value(%)	0.389^**(θ₂₃)	0.749	2.238	0.005	是Yes
常数项C Constant C	0.817	0.038	2.712	0.001
R²	0.986		Adjusted R²	0.972
F-statistic	102.477		Prob(F-statistic)	0.000

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