林业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (11): 181-188.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191120
• 研究简报 • 上一篇
沈钱勇,汤孟平*
收稿日期:
2019-01-22
出版日期:
2019-11-25
发布日期:
2019-12-21
通讯作者:
汤孟平
基金资助:
Qianyong Shen,Mengping Tang*
Received:
2019-01-22
Online:
2019-11-25
Published:
2019-12-21
Contact:
Mengping Tang
Supported by:
摘要:
目的: 通过样地实测获取毛竹竹秆生物量数据,研建基于不同变量的生物量模型并作比较分析,确定适宜的预测变量及模型,以精准估计毛竹竹秆生物量,为浙江省毛竹林立地质量评价和高效培育提供依据。方法: 从浙江省东、南、西、北、中不同区域选择10个县市采伐216株样竹,并进行样竹测量。引入胸径(D)、竹龄(A)和胸高竹节长(L)变量,利用全部样本信息,基于3个不同异速生长方程拟合竹秆生物量模型。采用似然估计法判定误差结构,确定模型拟合方法。通过3个模型的拟合优度及预估精度的比较分析,确定适用于浙江省的毛竹竹秆生物量模型。结果: 竹秆含水率逐年下降,Ⅴ度竹的平均含水率较Ⅰ度竹低24%;竹秆生物量占地上部分生物量比重逐年增加,且Ⅴ度竹占比超过80%;利用似然估计法分析确定生物量模型误差结构为乘积型,应采用对数转换的线性回归进行模型拟合;经检验,基于胸径的一元模型(M1)W=0.104 6D2.257 8确定系数(Ra2)仅为0.774 2,而基于胸径-竹龄的二元模型(M2)W=0.052 0D2.205 2A0.445 7和胸径-竹龄-胸高竹节长的三元模型(M3)W=0.026 5D2.143 9A0.449 5L0.262 9确定系数均达到0.89,且模型M3的估计值标准差(SEE)和平均系统误差(MSE)均为最小;3个对数回归模型在不同径阶范围的预估精度均较高,预估偏差接近于0,其中模型M3在不同径阶的预估效果均为最佳。结论: 由于模型校正后预估精度有所下降,故本研究在进行对数模型反对数转换时不作校正。二元和三元模型比一元模型具有更高的拟合优度和预估精度,确定基于胸径-竹龄-胸高竹节长的模型M3为最佳模型,即W=0.026 5D2.143 9A0.449 5L0.262 9。
中图分类号:
沈钱勇,汤孟平. 浙江省毛竹竹秆生物量模型[J]. 林业科学, 2019, 55(11): 181-188.
Qianyong Shen,Mengping Tang. Stem Biomass Models of Phyllostachys edulis in Zhejiang Province[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(11): 181-188.
表1
毛竹样竹实测数据统计"
变量 Variable | 范围 Range | 平均值 Mean | SD | CV(%) |
胸径Diameter at breast height (D)/cm | 4.10~15.30 | 9.76 | 2.31 | 23.69 |
胸高竹节长Internode length of bamboo at breast height (L)/cm | 11.70~34.60 | 22.33 | 3.36 | 15.04 |
竹秆鲜质量Stem fresh weight (M)/kg | 2.18~54.59 | 18.64 | 9.57 | 51.34 |
竹秆材积Stem volume(V)/dm3 | 2.57~63.86 | 22.13 | 11.32 | 51.15 |
竹秆生物量Stem biomass (W)/kg | 0.68~35.01 | 11.92 | 6.86 | 57.60 |
表3
竹秆生物量对数回归模型拟合参数与统计指标①"
模型Model | 参数估计Parameter estimates | 统计指标Statistics | |||||||
a′0 | a1 | a2 | a3 | Ra2 | SEE | MSE | ME | ||
M1 | -2.775 5(-14.64) | 2.257 8(26.92) | — | — | 0.774 2 | 0.315 8 | -0.594 5 | 0.000 0 | |
M2 | -2.956 7(-23.05) | 2.205 2(38.96) | 0.445 7(15.93) | — | 0.897 5 | 0.212 8 | -1.059 5 | 0.000 0 | |
M3 | -3.628 9(-12.77) | 2.143 9(35.47) | 0.449 5(16.27) | 0.262 9(2.64) | 0.900 4 | 0.209 8 | -1.045 6 | 0.000 0 |
表4
不同径阶竹秆生物量对数模型平均偏差检验结果"
径阶 Diameter class/cm | 株数 Number of individuals | 模型Model | ||
M1 | M2 | M3 | ||
4~6 | 12 | -0.123 6 | -0.093 8 | -0.090 4 |
6~8 | 29 | 0.055 6 | 0.027 3 | 0.024 3 |
8~10 | 73 | 0.016 1 | 0.013 6 | 0.012 9 |
10~12 | 61 | -0.018 0 | -0.002 3 | -0.000 5 |
12~14 | 36 | -0.012 1 | 0.000 3 | -0.000 2 |
14~16 | 5 | 0.046 0 | -0.100 1 | -0.099 1 |
全部Total | 216 | 0.000 0 | 0.000 0 | 0.000 0 |
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