基于kNDVI的内蒙古自治区2004—2023年植被覆盖度时空变化及气候驱动因子

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240439

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 通过长时序植被数据集探究内蒙古自治区植被覆盖度的时空变化及气候驱动因子，为当地植被生长遥感监测提供技术支持，为区域生态管理与决策提供科学依据。方法: 基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）平台，选取MOD13Q1 V6.1数据，构建新的核归一化植被指数（kNDVI）数据集，对2004—2023年内蒙古自治区植被覆盖度的时空变化及气候驱动因子进行分析；利用Theil-Sen中值趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和Hurst指数，揭示植被覆盖度的时空变化特征和未来发展趋势；采用偏相关和复相关分析量化kNDVI对温度、降水的响应强度，并结合像元尺度归因模型区分气候与非气候的相对贡献。结果: 1）内蒙古自治区植被覆盖度的时空变化呈东北部高、西部低的格局，2004—2023年kNDVI植被覆盖度中值在0.089~0.133之间波动，均值在0.118~0.144之间波动，基本呈稳定趋势。2）近20年间内蒙古自治区35.36%的区域植被覆盖度显著改善，49.95%的区域植被覆盖度保持不变，14.69%的植被覆盖度出现退化；70.96%的植被覆盖度表现出“不可预测的未来趋势”，29.04%的植被覆盖度表现出“可持续性”。3）植被对气候因子的响应较强，对降水的响应强于温度；在0.05置信水平下，65.09%的植被覆盖度由非气候因子驱动，34.91%的植被覆盖度由气候因子驱动。结论: 内蒙古自治区植被覆盖度的空间异质性明显，非气候因子对植被覆盖度变化起主导作用，主要分布在呼伦贝尔大部、兴安盟大部、乌兰察布大部、包头、呼和浩特、巴彦淖尔、乌海、阿拉善大部等地区；受气候因子驱动的植被覆盖度主要分布在呼伦贝尔西部、兴安盟西部、锡林郭勒、乌兰察布中部、呼和浩特北部、阿拉善东部。

关键词: 核归一化植被指数（kNDVI）, 植被覆盖度, 时空变化, 驱动因子, 内蒙古

Abstract:

Objective: This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation coverage and the driving factors in Inner Mongolia using a long-term vegetation dataset, aiming to provide technical support for restoration and improvement of local ecosystems. Method: Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform MOD13Q1 V6.1 data, a new kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) dataset was constructed for analyzing the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation coverage and its climate driving factors in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2023. Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and Hurst index were used to investigate the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and future development trends of vegetation coverage. The partial correlation analysis and complex correlation analysis were used to quantify the response intensity of kNDVI to temperature and precipitation, and combination with pixel scale attribution models was used to differentiate the relative contributions of the climate and non climate factors. Result: 1) The vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia shows a pattern of high in the northeast and low in the west. From 2004 to 2023, the median vegetation coverage of kNDVI fluctuated between 0.089?0.130, and the mean fluctuated between 0.118?0.144, showing a stable trend. 2) In the past 20 years, 35.36% of the regional vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia has improved, 49.95% of the regional vegetation coverage remains unchanged, and 14.69% of the vegetation coverage has degraded. In addition, 70.96% of vegetation coverage shows “unpredictable future trends”, and 29.04% of vegetation coverage shows “sustainability”. 3) Vegetation has a strong response to climate factors, with a stronger response to precipitation than temperature. At a confidence level of 0.05, 65.09% of vegetation coverage is driven by non-climatic factors, and 34.91% of vegetation coverage is driven by climate factors. Conclusion: There is obvious spatial heterogeneity in vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia, and non-climatic factors play a dominant role in the changes of vegetation coverage, mainly distributed in most parts of Hulunbuir, Xing’an League, Ulanqab, Baotou, Hohhot, Bayannur, Wuhai, and Alxa. The change of vegetation coverage driven by climate factors is mainly occurred in the western part of Hulunbuir, the western part of Xing’an League, Xilingol, the central part of Ulanqab, the northern part of Hohhot, and the eastern part of Alxa.

Key words: kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI), vegetation coverage, spatial-temporal change, driving factors, Inner Mongolia

中图分类号:

S757

魏光普,张文君,朱治衡,高雅娴,于晓燕. 基于kNDVI的内蒙古自治区2004—2023年植被覆盖度时空变化及气候驱动因子[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(11): 80-91.

Guangpu Wei,Wenjun Zhang,Zhiheng Zhu,Yaxian Gao,Xiaoyan Yu. Spatiotemporal Variation of Vegetation Coverage and Climate Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2023 Based on kNDVI[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(11): 80-91.

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2004—2023年kNDVI 与气候因子偏相关系数统计"

统计指标 Statistical index	kNDVI 温度 kNDVI temperature	kNDVI 降水 kNDVI precipitation
PCC范围 PCC range	?1~1	?1~1
平均值 Mean value	?0.13	0.07
正相关像素占比 Proportion of positively correlated pixels (%)	67.87	58.50
负相关像素占比 Proportion of negatively correlated pixels (%)	32.13	41.50
显著正相关占比 Proportion of significant positive correlation (%)	47.26	34.50
显著负相关占比 Proportion of significant negative correlation (%)	16.72	21.50
显著性空间分布说明 Significance spatial descriptions	显著正相关: 呼伦贝尔东部/西部、兴安盟西部、锡林郭勒、赤峰中部、通辽南部、乌兰察布北部、包头、鄂尔多斯北部、阿拉善东部 Significant positive correlation: eastern/western Hulunbuir, western Hinggan, Xilingol, central Chifeng, southern Tongliao, northern Ulanqab, Baotou, northern Ordos, eastern Alxa 温度–显著负相关: 呼伦贝尔东北部/南部、兴安盟大部、通辽北部、乌兰察布、呼和浩特南部、巴彦淖尔大部、鄂尔多斯南部、阿拉善西部/南部 Temperature-significant negative correlation: northeastern/southern Hulunbuir, most Hinggan, northern Tongliao, Ulanqab, southern Hohhot, most Bayannur, southern Ordos, western/southern Alxa	显著正相关: 呼伦贝尔、锡林郭勒、乌兰察布、鄂尔多斯西南部、阿拉善东部 Significant positive correlation: Hulunbuir, Xilingol, Ulanqab, southwestern Ordos, eastern Alxa 降水–显著负相关: 呼伦贝尔东部、兴安盟、赤峰、通辽、锡林郭勒中部、乌兰察布北部、包头、呼和浩特、鄂尔多斯大部、巴彦淖尔北部、阿拉善西部/北部Precipitation-significant negative correlation: eastern Hulunbuir, Hinggan, Chifeng, Tongliao, central Xilingol, northern Ulanqab, Baotou, Hohhot, most Ordos, northern Bayannur, western/northern Alxa

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驱动因子类型Type of driving factor	分类依据Classification criteria
驱动因子类型Type of driving factor	R_T?kNDVI-P	R_P?kNDVI-T	kNDVI_-T-P
降水驱动Driven by precipitation	\|t\|>0.05		F>F_0.05
温度驱动Driven by temperature		\|t\|>0.05	F>F_0.05
降水和温度驱动Driven by both temperature and precipitation	\|t\|<0.05	\|t\|<0.05	F>F_0.05
非气候因子驱动Driven by non-climate factors			F<F_0.05

区域 Region	kNDVI平均值Average kNDVI	植被覆盖水平 Vegetation coverage level	面积占比Area proportion (%)
西部地区 Western region	0.01	低植被覆盖度 Low coverage	36.62
中部地区 Central region	0.05	中等植被覆盖度 Moderate coverage	25.71
东北部地区 Northeastern region	0.26	高–极高覆盖度 High-very high coverage	37.67
全区平均 Regional average	0.109	—	100.00

植被覆盖水平 Vegetation coverage level	kNDVI中值范围 kNDVI median range	主要分布区域 Main distribution regions	面积占比 Area proportion (%)
低植被覆盖度 Low coverage	0~0.03	阿拉善高原、鄂尔多斯高原、河套平原、内蒙古高原生态脆弱区 Alxa Plateau, Ordos Plateau, Hetao Plain, Inner Mongolia Plateau ecologically fragile zone	36.62
中等植被覆盖度 Moderate coverage	0.03~0.07	乌兰察布南部、赤峰东部、通辽全境、呼伦贝尔西部 Southern Ulanqab, eastern Chifeng, whole Tongliao, western Hulunbuir	25.71
植被覆盖度 High coverage	0.07~0.17	呼伦贝尔大部、乌兰察布中部、兴安盟、赤峰、通辽部分地区 Majority of Hulunbuir, central Ulanqab, Hinggan League, Chifeng, part of Tongliao	17.22
极高植被覆盖度 Very high coverage	>0.17	呼伦贝尔部分优势生态区 Some superior ecological areas of Hulunbuir	20.45

S_kNDVI	Z_S	KNDVI 趋势 KNDVI trend	面积占比 Area ratio (%)
≥0.0005	≥1.96	显著提升 Significant improvement	18.90
≥0.0005	?1.96~1.96	轻微提升 Slight improvement	16.46
?0.0005~0.0005	?1.96~1.96	稳定 Stabilize	49.95
≤?0.0005	?1.96~1.96	轻微减少 Slight reduction	11.38
≤?0.0005	≤?1.96	严重减少 Serious reduction	3.31

主要分布区域 Main distribution regions	变化趋势描述 Trend description	变化类型 Change type
主要分布在呼伦贝尔东西部、兴安盟、通辽、赤峰、锡林郭勒东部、乌兰察布南部、鄂尔多斯东南部、巴彦淖尔南部以及呼和浩特和包头部分地区 Mainly distributed in eastern and western Hulunbuir, Hinggan League, Tongliao, Chifeng， eastern Xilingol, southern Ulanqab, southeastern Ordos, southern Bayannur, and parts of Hohhot and Baotou	2004—2023年植被覆盖度显著下降 Significant decrease in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	严重减少 Significant decrease
与严重减少区相邻或过渡区域 Adjacent or transitional zones to significantly decreased areas	2004—2023年植被覆盖度略有下降 Slight decrease in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	轻微减少 Slight decrease
主要分布在阿拉善、巴彦淖尔北部、包头和乌兰察布北部、锡林郭勒西部、呼伦贝尔西部 Mainly distributed in Alxa, northern Bayannur, northern Baotou and Ulanqab, western Xilingol, and western Hulunbuir	2004—2023年植被覆盖度无明显变化 No significant change in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	稳定 Stable
零星分布于呼伦贝尔中北部、乌兰察布、赤峰、锡林郭勒、巴彦淖尔部分地区 Sporadically distributed in central-northern Hulunbuir, Ulanqab, Chifeng, Xilingol, and parts of Bayannur	2004—2023年植被覆盖度略有提升 Slight increase in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	轻微提升 Slight increase
集中于部分生态恢复区和林草工程重点区域 Concentrated in some ecological restoration zones and key afforestation/grassland programs	2004—2023年植被覆盖度显著提升 Significant increase in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	显著提升 Significant increase