基于kNDVI的内蒙古自治区2004—2023年植被覆盖度时空变化及气候驱动因子

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240439

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation coverage and the driving factors in Inner Mongolia using a long-term vegetation dataset, aiming to provide technical support for restoration and improvement of local ecosystems. Method: Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform MOD13Q1 V6.1 data, a new kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) dataset was constructed for analyzing the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation coverage and its climate driving factors in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2023. Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and Hurst index were used to investigate the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and future development trends of vegetation coverage. The partial correlation analysis and complex correlation analysis were used to quantify the response intensity of kNDVI to temperature and precipitation, and combination with pixel scale attribution models was used to differentiate the relative contributions of the climate and non climate factors. Result: 1) The vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia shows a pattern of high in the northeast and low in the west. From 2004 to 2023, the median vegetation coverage of kNDVI fluctuated between 0.089?0.130, and the mean fluctuated between 0.118?0.144, showing a stable trend. 2) In the past 20 years, 35.36% of the regional vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia has improved, 49.95% of the regional vegetation coverage remains unchanged, and 14.69% of the vegetation coverage has degraded. In addition, 70.96% of vegetation coverage shows “unpredictable future trends”, and 29.04% of vegetation coverage shows “sustainability”. 3) Vegetation has a strong response to climate factors, with a stronger response to precipitation than temperature. At a confidence level of 0.05, 65.09% of vegetation coverage is driven by non-climatic factors, and 34.91% of vegetation coverage is driven by climate factors. Conclusion: There is obvious spatial heterogeneity in vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia, and non-climatic factors play a dominant role in the changes of vegetation coverage, mainly distributed in most parts of Hulunbuir, Xing’an League, Ulanqab, Baotou, Hohhot, Bayannur, Wuhai, and Alxa. The change of vegetation coverage driven by climate factors is mainly occurred in the western part of Hulunbuir, the western part of Xing’an League, Xilingol, the central part of Ulanqab, the northern part of Hohhot, and the eastern part of Alxa.

Key words: kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI), vegetation coverage, spatial-temporal change, driving factors, Inner Mongolia

CLC Number:

S757

Guangpu Wei,Wenjun Zhang,Zhiheng Zhu,Yaxian Gao,Xiaoyan Yu. Spatiotemporal Variation of Vegetation Coverage and Climate Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2023 Based on kNDVI[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(11): 80-91.

Figures/Tables 13

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Fig.1

Table 4

Table 5

Classification of vegetation coverage changes in Inner Mongolia (2004—2023)"

主要分布区域 Main distribution regions	变化趋势描述 Trend description	变化类型 Change type
主要分布在呼伦贝尔东西部、兴安盟、通辽、赤峰、锡林郭勒东部、乌兰察布南部、鄂尔多斯东南部、巴彦淖尔南部以及呼和浩特和包头部分地区 Mainly distributed in eastern and western Hulunbuir, Hinggan League, Tongliao, Chifeng， eastern Xilingol, southern Ulanqab, southeastern Ordos, southern Bayannur, and parts of Hohhot and Baotou	2004—2023年植被覆盖度显著下降 Significant decrease in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	严重减少 Significant decrease
与严重减少区相邻或过渡区域 Adjacent or transitional zones to significantly decreased areas	2004—2023年植被覆盖度略有下降 Slight decrease in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	轻微减少 Slight decrease
主要分布在阿拉善、巴彦淖尔北部、包头和乌兰察布北部、锡林郭勒西部、呼伦贝尔西部 Mainly distributed in Alxa, northern Bayannur, northern Baotou and Ulanqab, western Xilingol, and western Hulunbuir	2004—2023年植被覆盖度无明显变化 No significant change in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	稳定 Stable
零星分布于呼伦贝尔中北部、乌兰察布、赤峰、锡林郭勒、巴彦淖尔部分地区 Sporadically distributed in central-northern Hulunbuir, Ulanqab, Chifeng, Xilingol, and parts of Bayannur	2004—2023年植被覆盖度略有提升 Slight increase in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	轻微提升 Slight increase
集中于部分生态恢复区和林草工程重点区域 Concentrated in some ecological restoration zones and key afforestation/grassland programs	2004—2023年植被覆盖度显著提升 Significant increase in vegetation coverage during 2004—2023	显著提升 Significant increase

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Fig.2

Table 8

Classification and spatial distribution of average annual temperature and total precipitation in Inner Mongolia (2004—2023)"

气温分级范围 Temperature class/℃	空间分布描述 Spatial distribution description	空间分布描述 Spatial distribution description	降水量分级范围 Precipitation class/mm
?3.10~0.08	主要分布在呼伦贝尔东北部高纬度地区 Mainly in the northeastern high-latitude areas of Hulunbuir	阿拉善西部极干旱区 Extremely arid region of western Alxa	27~73
0.08~4.70	东北部高原丘陵区域 Northeastern hilly plateau regions	阿拉善右旗及左旗西部 Right Banner and western Left Banner of Alxa	73~118
4.70~8.60	兴安岭及锡林郭勒北部 Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Xilingol	巴彦淖尔西南部及鄂尔多斯西部 Southwest Bayannur and western Ordos	118~163
8.60~12.50	通辽、赤峰及中部部分区域 Tongliao, Chifeng, and parts of central region	鄂尔多斯中部及呼和浩特以西区域 Central Ordos and areas west of Hohhot	163~208
12.50~16.40	包头、呼和浩特、鄂尔多斯北部 Baotou, Hohhot, and northern Ordos	乌兰察布、呼和浩特、包头 Ulanqab， Hohhot， Baotou	208~253
16.40~20.30	鄂尔多斯大部、巴彦淖尔北部 Most of Ordos, northern Bayannur	赤峰及通辽西部 Western Chifeng and Tongliao	253~298
20.30~24.28	巴彦淖尔西南部及阿拉善北部 Southwest Bayannur and northern Alxa	锡林郭勒及通辽中东部 Xilingol and eastern-central Tongliao	298~343
24.28~28.32	阿拉善左旗、阿右旗北部 Left Banner and northern Right Banner of Alxa	呼伦贝尔中南部与兴安盟部分区域 Central-southern Hulunbuir and parts of Hinggan League	343~389
28.32~32.10	阿右旗南部边缘地带 Southern border of Alxa Right Banner	呼伦贝尔东部森林区 Eastern Hulunbuir forest area	389~479
32.10~36.44	阿拉善高原西南干旱区 Southwestern arid zone of Alxa Plateau	呼伦贝尔东北部湿润地带 Northeastern moist zones of Hulunbuir	479~548

Table 8

Table 9

Statistics of partial correlation coefficients between kNDVI and climate factors (2004—2023)"

统计指标 Statistical index	kNDVI 温度 kNDVI temperature	kNDVI 降水 kNDVI precipitation
PCC范围 PCC range	?1~1	?1~1
平均值 Mean value	?0.13	0.07
正相关像素占比 Proportion of positively correlated pixels (%)	67.87	58.50
负相关像素占比 Proportion of negatively correlated pixels (%)	32.13	41.50
显著正相关占比 Proportion of significant positive correlation (%)	47.26	34.50
显著负相关占比 Proportion of significant negative correlation (%)	16.72	21.50
显著性空间分布说明 Significance spatial descriptions	显著正相关: 呼伦贝尔东部/西部、兴安盟西部、锡林郭勒、赤峰中部、通辽南部、乌兰察布北部、包头、鄂尔多斯北部、阿拉善东部 Significant positive correlation: eastern/western Hulunbuir, western Hinggan, Xilingol, central Chifeng, southern Tongliao, northern Ulanqab, Baotou, northern Ordos, eastern Alxa 温度–显著负相关: 呼伦贝尔东北部/南部、兴安盟大部、通辽北部、乌兰察布、呼和浩特南部、巴彦淖尔大部、鄂尔多斯南部、阿拉善西部/南部 Temperature-significant negative correlation: northeastern/southern Hulunbuir, most Hinggan, northern Tongliao, Ulanqab, southern Hohhot, most Bayannur, southern Ordos, western/southern Alxa	显著正相关: 呼伦贝尔、锡林郭勒、乌兰察布、鄂尔多斯西南部、阿拉善东部 Significant positive correlation: Hulunbuir, Xilingol, Ulanqab, southwestern Ordos, eastern Alxa 降水–显著负相关: 呼伦贝尔东部、兴安盟、赤峰、通辽、锡林郭勒中部、乌兰察布北部、包头、呼和浩特、鄂尔多斯大部、巴彦淖尔北部、阿拉善西部/北部Precipitation-significant negative correlation: eastern Hulunbuir, Hinggan, Chifeng, Tongliao, central Xilingol, northern Ulanqab, Baotou, Hohhot, most Ordos, northern Bayannur, western/northern Alxa

Table 9

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驱动因子类型Type of driving factor	分类依据Classification criteria
驱动因子类型Type of driving factor	R_T?kNDVI-P	R_P?kNDVI-T	kNDVI_-T-P
降水驱动Driven by precipitation	\|t\|>0.05		F>F_0.05
温度驱动Driven by temperature		\|t\|>0.05	F>F_0.05
降水和温度驱动Driven by both temperature and precipitation	\|t\|<0.05	\|t\|<0.05	F>F_0.05
非气候因子驱动Driven by non-climate factors			F<F_0.05

区域 Region	kNDVI平均值Average kNDVI	植被覆盖水平 Vegetation coverage level	面积占比Area proportion (%)
西部地区 Western region	0.01	低植被覆盖度 Low coverage	36.62
中部地区 Central region	0.05	中等植被覆盖度 Moderate coverage	25.71
东北部地区 Northeastern region	0.26	高–极高覆盖度 High-very high coverage	37.67
全区平均 Regional average	0.109	—	100.00

植被覆盖水平 Vegetation coverage level	kNDVI中值范围 kNDVI median range	主要分布区域 Main distribution regions	面积占比 Area proportion (%)
低植被覆盖度 Low coverage	0~0.03	阿拉善高原、鄂尔多斯高原、河套平原、内蒙古高原生态脆弱区 Alxa Plateau, Ordos Plateau, Hetao Plain, Inner Mongolia Plateau ecologically fragile zone	36.62
中等植被覆盖度 Moderate coverage	0.03~0.07	乌兰察布南部、赤峰东部、通辽全境、呼伦贝尔西部 Southern Ulanqab, eastern Chifeng, whole Tongliao, western Hulunbuir	25.71
植被覆盖度 High coverage	0.07~0.17	呼伦贝尔大部、乌兰察布中部、兴安盟、赤峰、通辽部分地区 Majority of Hulunbuir, central Ulanqab, Hinggan League, Chifeng, part of Tongliao	17.22
极高植被覆盖度 Very high coverage	>0.17	呼伦贝尔部分优势生态区 Some superior ecological areas of Hulunbuir	20.45

S_kNDVI	Z_S	KNDVI 趋势 KNDVI trend	面积占比 Area ratio (%)
≥0.0005	≥1.96	显著提升 Significant improvement	18.90
≥0.0005	?1.96~1.96	轻微提升 Slight improvement	16.46
?0.0005~0.0005	?1.96~1.96	稳定 Stabilize	49.95
≤?0.0005	?1.96~1.96	轻微减少 Slight reduction	11.38
≤?0.0005	≤?1.96	严重减少 Serious reduction	3.31

可持续性描述 Sustainability description	H范围 H value range	面积占比 Area proportion (%)
不可持续性 Unsustainability	0~0.50	75.7
非常轻微可持续性 Very slight sustainability	0.50~0.55	—
轻微可持续性 Slight sustainability	0.55~0.65	—
强可持续性 Strong sustainability	0.65~0.75	—
非常强可持续性 Very strong sustainability	0.75~0.80	—
极强可持续性 Extremely strong sustainability	0.80~1	24.3

Spatiotemporal Variation of Vegetation Coverage and Climate Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2023 Based on kNDVI

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变化情景 Change scenario	描述 Description	面积占比 Area proportion (%)	主要分布区域 Main distribution regions
可持续性与显著改善 Sustainability and significant improvement	具有正的长期记忆特性，未来持续改善 Positive long-term memory with future improvement trend	1.28	呼伦贝尔中部及北部、兴安盟少部分地区 Central and northern Hulunbuir, and parts of Hinggan League
可持续性与轻微改善 Sustainability and slight improvement	具有持续性，kNDVI略有改善 Sustainability with slight improvement	5.13	呼伦贝尔中部、乌兰察布、赤峰、锡林郭勒、巴彦淖尔部分地区 Central Hulunbuir, Ulanqab, Chifeng, Xilingol, parts of Bayannur
可持续性与轻微退化 Sustainability and slight degradation	具有持续性，kNDVI略有退化 Sustainability with slight degradation	22.63	东北平原、大兴安岭南部、内蒙古高原东部、河套平原、鄂尔多斯高原、阿拉善高原 Northeast Plain, southern Greater Khingan Mountains, eastern Inner Mongolia Plateau, Hetao Plain, Ordos and Alxa Plateau
可持续性与稳定性 Sustainability and stability	H与趋势均无显著变化 No significant change in Hurst index or trend	0.00	—
可持续性与严重退化 Sustainability and severe degradation	趋势为持续下降，H较小 Sustained decline trend with low Hurst index	0.00	—
未来变化趋势不确定 Undetermined future variation trend	H低或趋势不显著，未来变化趋势不明确 Uncertain trend due to low Hurst index or insignificant persistence	70.96	呼伦贝尔西部和东部、锡林郭勒、巴彦淖尔和阿拉善大部分地区 Western and eastern Hulunbuir, Xilingol, most of Bayannur and Alxa

统计指标 Statistical index	结果特征 Result characteristics
值域范围 Value range	0~1
平均值 Mean value	0.25
显著相关像素占比（P≤0.05） Proportion of significantly correlated pixels (%)	34.91
非显著像素占比 Proportion of non-significant pixels (%)	65.09
显著相关区域空间分布 Spatial distribution of significant correlation	斑块状分布：呼伦贝尔高原、锡林郭勒草原带、阴山南麓、鄂尔多斯-阿拉善过渡带 Patchy distribution: Hulunbuir Plateau, Xilingol belt, southern Yinshan, Ordos-Alxa ecotone
非显著区域空间分布 Spatial distribution of non-significant correlation	广泛分布：河套灌区、乌兰察布丘陵、大兴安岭西麓、巴彦淖尔荒漠区 Widespread: Hetao irrigation, Ulanqab hills, western Greater Khingan, Bayannur desert

驱动类型 Driver type	地理分布特征 Geographical distribution
降水 Precipitation (7.78%)	呼伦贝尔、锡林郭勒西部、乌兰察布南部、鄂尔多斯西南部、阿拉善南部 Hulunbuir, western Xilingol, southern Ulanqab, southwestern Ordos, southern Alxa
温度 Temperature (17.01%)	阿拉善东部、鄂尔多斯北部、包头、乌兰察布、锡林郭勒、赤峰、通辽南部、兴安盟、呼伦贝尔东西部 Eastern Alxa, northern Ordos, Baotou, Ulanqab, Xilingol, Chifeng, southern Tongliao, Hinggan, eastern/western Hulunbuir
共同 Combined (10.12%)	呼伦贝尔西部、锡林郭勒中部、乌兰察布局部区域 Western Hulunbuir, central Xilingol, partial Ulanqab
非气候 Non-climate （65.09%）	全域性分布，重点区域：河套平原、阴山北麓、科尔沁沙地、乌兰布和沙漠、腾格里沙漠边缘带 Pan-regional distribution, key areas: Hetao Plain, northern Yinshan, Horqin sandy land, Ulan buh desert, Tengger desert fringe

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