Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 25-36.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20210840
• Response and adaptation of spatial distribution of typical tree species to climate change • Previous Articles Next Articles
Shuning Zhang1,Junxing Chen1,Dun Ao1,Mei Hong1,Yaqian Zhang1,Fuhai Bao1,Lin Wang2,Tana Wuyun2,Yu’e Bai1,Wenquan Bao1,*()
Received:
2021-11-16
Online:
2023-12-25
Published:
2024-01-08
Contact:
Wenquan Bao
E-mail:48369742@qq.com
CLC Number:
Shuning Zhang,Junxing Chen,Dun Ao,Mei Hong,Yaqian Zhang,Fuhai Bao,Lin Wang,Tana Wuyun,Yu’e Bai,Wenquan Bao. Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Amygdalus pedunculata in China under Climate Change[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(12): 25-36.
Table 1
The environmental variables for prediction of geographical distribution of A. pedunculata"
类型 Type | 因子 Variables | 描述 Description | 单位 Units |
气候生物因子 Bio climatic variables | Bio1 | 年平均气温Annual mean temperature | ℃ |
Bio4 | 气温变异系数Temperature seasonality | CV | |
Bio5 | 最热月最高温Max temperature of warmest month | ℃ | |
Bio6 | 最冷月最低温Min temperature of coldest month | ℃ | |
Bio7 | 气温年较差Temperature annual range | ℃ | |
Bio12 | 年降水量Annual precipitation | mm | |
Bio15 | 降水量变异系数Variation coefficient of precipitation | % | |
Bio18 | 最暖季度降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter | mm | |
土壤因子 Top soil variables | T-SAND | 表层土壤沙砾百分比Percentage sand in the topsoil | %wt |
T-OC | 土壤有机碳百分比Percentage of organic carbon in topsoil | %wt | |
T-PH-H2O | 表层土壤pH值pH-value of topsoil(H2O) | log (H+) | |
T-BS | 表层土壤盐基饱和度The base saturation in topsoil | % | |
地形因子Terrain | ELEV | 海拔Elevation | m |
Fig.3
ROC curve and Omission curve of MaxEnt model under optimal parameter setting A. MaxEnt runs the ROC curve for the first time; B. MaxEnt runs the ROC curve for the 10th time; C. MaxEnt repeats 10 times to run the ROC curve average; D. Mean value of MaxEnt missed rate curve after 10 repetitions"
Table 2
The suitable living area for A. pedunculata under different climates scenarios/years"
气候变化情景 Climate change scenarios | 高度适生区 Most suitable area/hm2 | 一般适生区 Suitable area/hm2 | 较不适生区 Marginally unsuitable area/hm2 | 最不适生区 Unsuitable area/hm2 | 总适生区 Total suitable area (%) | |
末次间冰期 Last inter glacial | 620 431.9 | 655 532.6 | 2179 945 | 6 154 269 | 1 275 964.6 | |
末次盛冰期Last glacial maximum | 295 434 | 158 611.1 | 498 993.1 | 8 656 753 | 454 045.1 | |
全新中世纪Mid holocene | 98 385.4 | 168 535.4 | 814 250 | 8 529 008 | 266 920.8 | |
当前Current | 219 166.7 | 228 107.6 | 779 600.7 | 8 051 493 | 447 274.3 | |
SSP126 | 2050S | 278 333.3 | 357 621.5 | 886 406.3 | 6 154 269 | 635 954.8 |
2090S | 191 579.9 | 247 829.9 | 866 284.7 | 8 656 753 | 439 409.8 | |
SSP245 | 2050S | 197 534.7 | 360 451.4 | 846 319.4 | 8 529 008 | 197 571.2 |
2090S | 150 225.7 | 195 607.6 | 989 652.8 | 8 051 493 | 345 833.3 | |
SSP585 | 2050S | 187 256.9 | 253 576.4 | 1 078 611 | 7 756 007 | 440 833.3 |
2090S | 176 388.9 | 269 878.5 | 1 044 514 | 7 787 587 | 446 267.4 |
Table 3
Change of A. pedunculata suitable area in different periods"
项目 Item | 末次间冰期 Last inter glacial | 末次盛冰期 Last glacial maximum | 全新世中期 Mid holocene | 2050s | 2090s | |||||
SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | |||||
保留率 Unchange rate (%) | 69.19 | 20.01 | 41.37 | 79.63 | 70.78 | 63.65 | 89.25 | 72.67 | 71.00 | |
丧失率 Contraction rate (%) | 215.27 | 81.44 | 18.16 | 20.56 | 29.69 | 36.38 | 53.83 | 52.60 | 27.54 | |
新增率 Expansion rate (%) | 33.16 | 39.41 | 58.68 | 63.32 | 53.83 | 34.50 | 9.15 | 4.33 | 28.17 |
Table 4
Centroid migration distance of suitable areas of A. pedunculata under historical, current and future climate scenarios/m"
时期 Period | 末次间冰期 Last inter glacial | 末次盛冰期 Last glacial maximum | 全新世中期 Mid holocene | 当前 Current | 2050s | 2090s | |||||
SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | SSP126 | SSP245 | SSP585 | ||||||
末次盛冰期 Last glacial maximum | 693 888 | ||||||||||
全新世中期Mid holocene | 281 946 | 547 357 | |||||||||
当前Current | 687 602 | 305 587 | 440 539 | ||||||||
SSP126-2050s | 723 126 | 382 763 | 460 460 | 78 638 | |||||||
SSP245-2050s | 703 742 | 423 268 | 433 321 | 118 648 | 53 311 | ||||||
SSP585-2050s | 405 111 | 486 170 | 174 783 | 295 097 | 297 781 | 264 004 | |||||
SSP126-2090s | 609 924 | 412 027 | 339 118 | 142 269 | 126 410 | 94 336 | 171 905 | ||||
SSP245-2090s | 600 745 | 392 373 | 333 615 | 131 199 | 127 372 | 103 526 | 171 422 | 20 985 | |||
SSP585-2090s | 444 933 | 535 516 | 163 687 | 340 468 | 336 565 | 298 300 | 50 016 | 210 246 | 213 056 | 0 |
Table 5
Percentage contribution and permutation importance of environment variables for A. pedunculata in the MaxEnt model"
因子 Variables | 贡献率 Percentage contribution (%) | 置换重要值 Permutation importance |
最暖季度降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter | 22.7 | 22.3 |
降水量变异系数Variation coefficient of precipitation | 20.3 | 24.1 |
气温变异系数Temperature seasonality | 16.3 | 20 |
年均气温Annual mean temperature | 11.2 | 3.6 |
表层土壤盐基饱和度The base saturation in topsoil | 8.4 | 4.9 |
年降水量Annual precipitation | 5 | 4.4 |
气温年较差Temperature annual range | 4 | 7.9 |
表层土壤沙砾百分比Percentage sand in the topsoil | 2.6 | 1.6 |
最热月最高温Max temperature of warmest month | 2.1 | 9.1 |
最冷月最低温Min temperature of coldest month | 2 | 1.1 |
土壤有机碳百分比Percentage of organic carbon in topsoil | 0.4 | 0.6 |
表层土壤pH值pH-value of topsoil(H2O) | 0.1 | 0.2 |
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