气候变化对我国特有濒危动物褐马鸡潜在生境的影响

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20211010

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: Global climate change is one of the main factors causing biodiversity reduction and species extinction. The research on the potential habitat changes of brown-eared pheasants, a species endemic and endangered to China under the present and future climate change scenarios has great significance for establishing relevant conservation policies. Method: Based on the data at 152 distribution locations and 26 high-resolution environmental variables, the potential habitat of brown-eared pheasant was analyzed by using MaxEnt model under the current conditions, and the future distributions were also simulated for the periods of 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predicted in the Special Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Result: The AUC values for all training and testing model were greater than 0.8, indicating that MaxEnt model is good in predicting its potential habitat. At present, the contribution rates of the dominate factors to brown-eared pheasant habitat were annual precipitation (15.4%), mean diurnal range (15.3%), vegetation types (9.7%), precipitation in the driest season (9.1%) and in the wettest season (8.7%), distance to road (8.2%) and water source (7.8%), with their cumulative contributions of 74.2%. The thresholds of each factor were 525-580 mm, 8.2-10.8℃, preference for broadleaved forest and mixed forest, 12.4-17.1 mm, 310-340 mm, 0~2.5 km, 0~0.63 km and more than 10 km, respectively. The suitable habitats of brown-eared pheasant were mainly distributed in Huanglong Mountain of Shaanxi Province, Lüliang Mountain of Shanxi Province, Xiaowutai Mountain in Hebei Province and Baihua Mountain of Beijing. The proportion of suitable, moderate and unsuitable areas was 6.45%, 19.92% and 73.62%, respectively. Compared with that in the current condition, the livable habitat of the pheasant shows a increase trend in the future, and the suitable and moderately suitable habitat has the same trend. Meanwhile, it is almost unchanged between 2050s and 2070s. Conclusion: The potential distribution areas of the pheasant in this study area are mainly in Huanglong Mountain of Shaanxi Province, Lüliang Mountain of Shanxi Province, Xiaowutai Mountain in Hebei Province and Baihua Mountain of Beijing City. The livable habitats of the pheasant will increase in the future. The dominate factors affecting the distribution of brown-eared pheasant are annual precipitation, mean diurnal range, vegetation types, precipitation of the driest and the wettest quarter, distance to road and water source. This study reminds us to strengthen the protection and management of the suitable and moderate areas, and meanwhile, strengthen evergreen coniferous forest planting and population control in the reserve.

Key words: Crossoptilon mantchuricum, MaxEnt model, Jackknife test, dominate factor, climate change

CLC Number:

Q958.1

Hongqun Li,Peishi Han,Changhui Niu,Xiaoqing Yuan,Ligang Xing. Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Habitat of Brown-Eared Pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum), An Endemic and Endangered Animals to China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(10): 102-110.

Figures/Tables 5

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气候变化情景 Climate change scenario	年份 Year	训练集AUC AUC of training data	验证集AUC AUC of test data	随机预测AUC AUC of random prediction
当前Current	1970—2000	0.912	0.920	0.5
RCP4.5	2041—2060	0.889	0.925	0.5
RCP4.5	2061—2080	0.889	0.909	0.5
RCP8.5	2041—2060	0.855	0.910	0.5
RCP8.5	2061—2080	0.898	0.924	0.5

变量Variable	贡献率 Contribution(%)	变量Variable	贡献率 Contribution(%)
年降水量Annual precipitation	15.4	最湿月降水量Precipitation of the wettest month	1.3
昼夜温差月均值Mean diurnal range	15.3	降雨季节性Precipitation seasonality	1.2
植被类型Vegetation types	9.7	年气温变化范围Temperature annual range	1.1
最干季降水量Precipitation of the driest quarter	9.1	坡度Slope	1.0
最湿季降水量Precipitation of the wettest quarter	8.7	最冷月最低温度Min. temperature of the coldest month	0.7
到道路距离Distance to road	8.2	最热月最高温度Max. temperature of the warmest month	0.6
到水源距离Distance to water	7.8	最暖季降水量Precipitation of the warmest quarter	0.1
坡向Aspect	5.9	最暖季度平均温度Mean temperature of the warmest quarter	0.1
年均气温Annual mean temperature	3.3	海拔Altitude	0.1
等温性Isothermality	2.8	最湿季平均温度Mean temperature of the wettest quarter	0.1
到居民点距离Distance to village	2.6	最热季平均气温Mean temperature of the warmest quarter	0.1
温度季节性Temperature seasonality	2.5	最冷季降雨量Precipitation of the coldest quarter	0
最干月降水量Precipitation of the driest month	2.3	最冷季平均温度Mean temperature of the coldest quarter	0

气候变化情景 Climate change scenario	年份 Year	面积 Predicted area/km²			面积占比 Percentage of predicted area(%)
气候变化情景 Climate change scenario	年份 Year	适宜区 Suitablehabitat	中度适宜区 Moderately suitable habitat	不适宜区 Unsuitablehabitat	适宜区 Suitablehabitat	中度适宜区 Moderately suitablehabitat	不适宜区 Unsuitablehabitat
当前Current	1970—2000	11 964.3	36 933.7	136 491	6.45	19.92	73.62
RCP4.5	2041—2060	21 895.1	60 477.2	103 016	11.81	32.62	55.57
RCP4.5	2061—2080	18 593.3	57 384.4	109 410	10.02	30.95	59.02
RCP8.5	2041—2060	18 806.7	55 889.6	110 692	10.14	30.15	59.71
RCP8.5	2061—2080	19 327.8	52 097.7	113 964	10.43	28.10	61.47

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Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Habitat of Brown-Eared Pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum), An Endemic and Endangered Animals to China

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