不同气候情景下黄心梓木在我国的潜在适生区预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230485

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: This study intends to predict the suitable habitat of Huangxin under different environmental scenarios in current and future periods based on the MaxEnt model. The aim is to explore the distribution of Huangxin, provide a scientific basis for the protection and sustainable use of Huangxin and also serves as a reference for the prediction and protection of potential suitable habitats for endangered plants. Method: This study, based on the MaxEnt model and incorporating environmental variable data from the present and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s) , simulated and predicted the potential geographic distribution of Huangxin under different climate scenarios. Through a comprehensive analysis of the environmental factors limiting its spread, we have formulated targeted conservation measures. Result: 1) The area under the curve (AUC) values of all groups in the MaxEnt model were higher than 0.9, indicating high accurate model predictions. 2) Huangxin has a narrow potential suitable area in China, with a total current suitable area of 50 416 km². The high suitable area is only 2 309 km², located in parts of southern and southwestern Guizhou Province. The medium suitable area (14 288 km²) is distributed around the high suitable area. The low suitable area, amounting to 33 819 km², is distributed in central Guizhou Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province and Sichuan Province. Under future climate conditions, the potential suitable area for Huangxin shows a trend of first expanding and then contracting over the three periods. Among them, the total suitable area could reach its maximum (70 313 km²) in the 2030s under the high forcing (SSP5-8.5) scenario, with an increase of 39% compared to the current total suitable area. 3) The precipitation of the driest month (bio14), altitude (bio20), isothermality (bio3), and annual precipitation (bio12) are the dominant environmental factors limiting the distribution of Huangxin. 4) Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable area for Huangxin shows a trend of first expanding and then contracting, with a migration direction first northward and then southeastward. 5) Based on the current situation of Huangxin, we propose relevant conservation measures: delineating protected areas in situ within the high suitable range; conducting relevant breeding experiments in potential suitable areas such as western Hubei Province and northeastern Chongqing Municipality to expand its planting area; and establishing a germplasm resource bank. Conclusion: The suitable habitat for Huangxin is relatively narrow, with the medium to high suitable areas predominantly concentrated in southwestern Guizhou Province. Low suitable areas may also be distributed in parts of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province, Sichuan Province, Chongqing Municipality, and Hubei Province besides Guizhou Province. The current suitable area for Huangxin has not reached saturation, and it is projected to reach its maximum area in the 2030s. Under future climate scenarios, the area of potential suitable habitats is expected to first expand and then contract. Given the current status of Huangxin, it is recommended to carry out human-assisted measures such as habitat restoration and rapid promotion of population recovery.

Key words: Huangxin (Catalpa), MaxEnt model, climate change, geographic distribution prediction, dominant environmental factors, migration route, conservation measures

CLC Number:

S722.3⁺9

Wanting Ge,Ying Liu,Zhijia Zhao,Shen Zhang,Jie Li,Guijuan Yang,Guanzheng Qu,Junhui Wang,Wenjun Ma. Prediction of Potential Distribution for Huangxin (Catalpa) in China under Different Climate Scenarios[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2024, 60(11): 63-74.

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代码Code	变量因子Variable	单位Unit
bio1	年平均气温Annual mean temperature	℃
bio2	平均气温日较差Mean diurnal range	℃
bio3	等温性Isothermality	℃
bio4	气温季节性变动系数Temperature seasonality	—
bio5	最热月最高温度Max temperature of warmest month	℃
bio6	最冷月最高温度Min temperature of coldest month	℃
bio7	气温年较差Temperature annual range	℃
bio8	最湿季平均温度Mean temperature of wettest quarter	℃
bio9	最干季平均温度Mean temperature of driest quarter	℃
bio10	最暖季平均温度Mean temperature of warmest quarter	℃
bio11	最冷季平均温度Mean temperature of coldest quarter	℃
bio12	年降水量Annual precipitation	mm
bio13	最湿月降水量Precipitation of wettest month	mm
bio14	最干月降水量Precipitation of driest month	mm
bio15	降水量季节性变化Precipitation seasonality	—
bio16	最湿季降水量Precipitation of wettest quarter	mm
bio17	最干季降水量Precipitation of driest quarter	mm
bio18	最暖季降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter	mm
bio19	最冷季降水量Precipitation of coldest quarter	mm
bio20（ele)	海拔Elevation	m

代码 Code	变量 Variable	贡献率 Percent contribution (%)	置换重要性 Permutation importance (%)
bio14	最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month	51.1	79.1
bio20	海拔 Elevation	30.2	6.6
bio3	等温性 Isothermality	7.4	1.7
bio12	年降水量 Annual precipitation	4.3	8.7
bio4	气温季节性变动系数 Temperature seasonality	3.6	0.3
bio9	最干季平均温度 Mean temperature of driest quarter	2.9	3.6
bio19	最冷季降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter	0.5	0

时期 Period	当前 Current	SSP1-2.6			SSP5-8.5
时期 Period	当前 Current	2030s	2050s	2070s	2030s	2050s	2070s
高适生区 High suitable area	2 309	2 431	2 674	2 031	2 431	2 622	2 083
中适生区 Medium suitable area	14 288	14 149	15 486	15 191	12 969	14 618	12 552
低适生区 Low suitable area	33 819	47 917	35 313	32 743	54 913	39 791	39 184
总适生区 Total suitable area	50 416	64 497	53 473	49 965	70 313	57 031	53 819

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Prediction of Potential Distribution for Huangxin (Catalpa) in China under Different Climate Scenarios

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