北京市森林植被固碳与能源碳排放时空变化及潜力预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20220683

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: To investigate the carbon sequestration by forest vegetation and its offsetting effect in Beijing, and to predict the carbon offsetting potential in the future up to the carbon neutral year, with a view to providing a scientific basis for carbon sequestration by forest vegetation, energy saving and emission reduction, and carbon neutralization pathway in Beijing. Method: Forest inventory data, photosynthetic rate method and IPCC inventory guidelines were used to study the spatial and temporal dynamics of vegetation carbon fixation, energy CO₂ emissions and intensity from 2000 to 2020, to evaluate the offsetting effect of carbon sequestration by forest vegetation on CO₂ emissions, and to predict the carbon offsetting potential in the future up to the year of carbon neutrality by using the GM(1,1) gray prediction model. The potential of carbon offsetting was predicted by using the gray prediction model of GM(1, 1). The average carbon sequestration capacity of shrubs, deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen coniferous forests and deciduous coniferous forests in the past 20 years was 4.24, 4.60, 1.68 and 1.95 t·hm^?2a^?1, respectively. Miyun District had the highest growth in vegetation carbon fixation and Xicheng District had the lowest, with cumulative increases of 2.27×10⁵ and 7.86×10² t·a^?1, respectively, from 2000 to 2020.The city’s total energy carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, with a cumulative increase of 1.98×10⁷ t·a^?1 increased by 21.64%; Chaoyang District has the highest CO₂ emissions, and Yanqing District has the lowest, respectively, 1.54×10⁷-2.46×10⁷ and 1.78×10⁶-2.20×10⁶ t·a^?1. Xicheng District has the most significant energy emission reduction, and Changping District has the fastest growth in energy CO₂, emissions; the intensity of Beijing’s carbon emissions per unit of GDP has increased from 2.79 t per ten thousand yuan in 2000 to 0.32 t per ten thousand yuan in 2020, with a clear downward trend; Miyun District has the highest CO₂, emission intensity, and Xicheng District has the lowest, at 0.79-9.76 t per ten thousand yuan and 0.11-2.08 t per ten thousand yuan, respectively.The carbon offsetting effect of Beijing’s forest vegetation from 2000 to 2020 ranges from 1.56% to 2.50%, with shrubs being the highest and deciduous coniferous forests being the lowest. The average value of the offsetting effect of carbon sequestration by Beijing’s forest vegetation on CO₂ energy emissions in different periods of time is 4.3% in each district, and it is the highest in Yanqing District and the lowest in Xicheng District, with 15.91% and 0.02%, respectively. By 2060, the carbon sequestration and carbon offsetting effect of forest vegetation in Beijing will increase to 8.01×10⁶ t·a^?1 and 15.44%, respectively, with an average annual increase of 13.29% and 1.30%, and the CO₂ energy emission will decrease to 4.99×10⁷ t·a^?1 with an average annual decrease of 2.76%. Conclusion: The carbon fixation of forest vegetation in Beijing increases rapidly from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon fixation of different vegetation types is highest for shrubs, followed by deciduous broad-leaved forests, evergreen coniferous forests, and lowest for deciduous coniferous forests; CO₂ energy emissions increase first and then decrease, and the carbon offsetting effect of forest vegetation is on an overall rising trend; in order to enhance the contribution of carbon neutrality of forest vegetation in Beijing. In order to increase the carbon neutral contribution of Beijing’s forest vegetation, it is necessary to optimize the composition of forest species, increase the proportion of broadleaf forests, and improve the quality of forests in the future.

Key words: forest vegetation, carbon sequestration, energy carbon emission, carbon offset, Beijing

CLC Number:

S718.52

Zanqing Zeng,Hanqing Song,Junhong Gao,Miaomiao Wang,Yaoxing Wu,Lianghua Qi. Spatial and Temporal Change and Potential Prediction of Carbon Sequestrating and Energy Carbon Emissing of Forest Vegetation in Beijing[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(12): 51-60.

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能源名称 Energy name	平均低位发热量 Mean low calorific value/( kJ·kg^?1)	折标准煤系数 Discount standard coal coefficient/ ( kg·kg^?1)	单位热值含碳量 Carbon content per unit calorific value/ (t ·TJ^?1)	碳氧化率 Carbon oxidation rate(%)	碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient
原煤Coal	20 908	0.714 3	26.37	0.94	0.755 9
焦炭Coke	28 435	0.971 4	29.5	0.93	0.855 6
原油Crude oil	41 816	1.428 6	20.1	0.98	0.586 0
燃料油Fuel oil	41 816	1.428 6	21.1	0.98	0.618 2
汽油 Gas	43 070	1.471 4	18.9	0.98	0.553 8
煤油Kerosene	43 070	1.471 4	19.5	0.98	0.574 3
柴油Diesel	42 652	1.457 1	20.2	0.98	0.591 8
液化石油 Liquefied petroleum gas	50 179	1.714 3	17.2	0.98	0.504 1
天然气Natural gas	38 931	1.330 0	15.3	0.99	0.448 0

年份 Year	森林植被类型 Vegetation type	面积 Area/hm²	每10年面积增长率Area growth rate per 10 years (%)	固碳(CO₂)量 CO₂ sequestration/ (10⁴ t·a^?1)	每10年固碳量增长率Rate of carbon sequestration per 10 years (%)	单位面积固碳(CO₂)量CO₂ sequestration per unit area/(10⁴ t·hm^?2a^?1)
2000	Ⅰ	69 800	12.58	11.12	23.69	1.59
	Ⅱ	4 600	14.65	0.85	?30.32	1.84
	Ⅲ	159 600	?13.2	69.37	7.66	4.34
	Ⅳ	255 700	13.44	102.43	6.53	4.01
	小计Total	489 700	13.38	183.77	7.59	3.75
2010	Ⅰ	102 600	46.99	18.20	63.66	1.77
	Ⅱ	4 400	?4.34	0.91	7.05	2.06
	Ⅲ	106 600	?33.20	51.60	?25.61	4.84
	Ⅳ	317 900	24.32	141.80	38.43	4.46
	小计Total	531 500	8.53	212.51	15.64	3.99
2020	Ⅰ	119 800	16.76	20.33	11.70	1.69
	Ⅱ	6 300	43.18	1.24	36.26	1.96
	Ⅲ	213 300	100.09	98.73	91.33	4.62
	Ⅳ	369 500	16.23	157.62	11.15	4.26
	小计Total	708 900	45.76	277.92	33.37	3.92

行政区 District	森林植被CO₂固定量 CO₂ fixed amount of forest vegetation/(t·a^?1)			森林植被碳固定量贡献率 Contribution rate of carbon fixation of forest vegetation (%)
行政区 District	2000	2010	2020	2000	2010	2020
西城 Xicheng	757.11	842.02	1542.92	0.04	0.04	0.06
东城 Dongcheng	968.86	1 077.51	1974.45	0.05	0.05	0.07
朝阳 Chaoyang	18 356.46	21 325.07	36 349.49	1.00	1.00	1.31
丰台 Fengtai	15 917.72	18 555.32	30 169.20	0.87	0.87	1.09
石景山 Shijingshan	5 314.53	5 873.53	8 530.38	0.29	0.28	0.31
海淀 Haidian	31 911.27	35 128.25	54 863.08	1.74	1.65	1.97
门头沟 Mentougou	238 643.44	262 839.09	241 706.29	12.99	12.37	8.70
房山 Fangshan	235 070.38	271 136.14	249 123.06	12.79	12.76	8.96
通州 Tongzhou	33 581.00	58 206.23	98 234.88	1.83	2.74	3.53
顺义 Shunyi	49 491.21	77 581.27	112 023.63	2.69	3.65	4.03
昌平Changping	148 687.03	174 830.28	227 192.07	8.09	8.23	8.17
大兴Daxing	49 477.30	60 239.72	109 264.10	2.69	2.83	3.93
怀柔Huairou	321 357.29	356 674.73	439 317.10	17.49	16.78	15.81
平谷Pinggu	123 493.32	137 131.01	228 200.06	6.72	6.45	8.21
密云Miyun	291 964.92	329 738.29	518 283.16	15.89	15.52	18.65
延庆Yanqing	272 708.20	313 900.67	422 426.13	14.84	14.77	15.20

年份 Year	煤炭Coal	原油 Crude oil	汽油 Gas	焦炭 Coke	煤油 Kerosene	柴油 Diesel	燃料油 Fuel oil	液化石油气 Liquefied Petroleum gas	天然气 Natural gas	总计 Total
2000	3 690.74	3 255.81	458.38	404.17	522.14	362.01	405.79	0	43.65	9 142.72
2010	3 575.17	4 815.66	1 597.57	198.40	1 743.27	1 058.89	301.95	0	299.51	13 590.45
2020	233.14	3 961.67	2 112.10	0	3 088.22	715.55	2.12	257.47	751.12	11 121.39

行政区 District	年份Year
行政区 District	2000	2010	2020
西城 Xicheng	830.73	861.36	567.19
东城 Dongcheng	594.24	636.84	355.88
朝阳 Chaoyang	1 542.88	2 456.56	1 757.18
丰台 Fengtai	922.36	1 463.54	1 023.17
石景山 Shijingshan	329.46	426.87	289.16
海淀 Haidian	1 509.19	2 273.62	1 590.36
门头沟 Mentougou	179.89	200.96	200.19
房山 Fangshan	548.43	654.85	667.28
通州 Tongzhou	454.10	820.47	934.20
顺义 Shunyi	429.18	607.73	667.28
昌平Changping	414.35	1 151.02	1 156.62
大兴Daxing	452.76	945.90	1 012.05
怀柔Huairou	199.43	258.48	222.43
平谷Pinggu	267.48	288.27	233.55
密云Miyun	282.97	323.62	266.91
延庆Yanqing	185.28	219.67	177.94

Spatial and Temporal Change and Potential Prediction of Carbon Sequestrating and Energy Carbon Emissing of Forest Vegetation in Beijing

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