Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (5): 108-118.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210510
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Tingting Zhao1,Dongzhi Wang1,2,*,Dongyan Zhang1,3,Li Guo4,Xuanrui Huang1,2
Received:
2019-09-11
Online:
2021-07-25
Published:
2021-07-09
Contact:
Dongzhi Wang
CLC Number:
Tingting Zhao,Dongzhi Wang,Dongyan Zhang,Li Guo,Xuanrui Huang. Crown Prediction Model of Larix principis-rupprechtii Plantation in Saihanba of Hebei Province, Northern China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(5): 108-118.
Table 1
Statistics for stand variables of L. principis-rupprechtii plantation"
样地号 Sample plot No. | 林分年龄 Stand age/a | 密度Stand density/(tree·hm-2) | 平均胸径 Mean DBH/cm | 平均树高 Mean HT/m | 平均冠幅 Mean CW/m | 平均冠长 Mean CL/m |
1 | 17 | 2 680 | 12.167 | 9.467 | 1.416 | 6.818 |
2 | 43 | 1 200 | 22.667 | 19.450 | 2.213 | 9.533 |
3 | 43 | 1 500 | 20.317 | 17.067 | 1.537 | 8.950 |
4 | 30 | 1 580 | 15.650 | 14.803 | 1.363 | 6.508 |
5 | 45 | 825 | 20.150 | 18.000 | 1.677 | 9.317 |
6 | 22 | 2 190 | 13.733 | 12.067 | 1.475 | 7.300 |
7 | 44 | 757 | 27.625 | 18.175 | 1.935 | 11.550 |
8 | 23 | 2 495 | 15.433 | 12.017 | 1.516 | 6.583 |
9 | 38 | 735 | 23.458 | 17.500 | 2.445 | 9.625 |
10 | 14 | 2 240 | 9.833 | 8.500 | 1.270 | 4.667 |
Table 2
Statistics for attributes of sample trees and branch of L. principis-rupprechtii plantation"
样木及枝条属性 Sample trees and branch attributes | 建模样本Fitting data | 检验样本Validation data | |||||||
最小值 Min. | 最大值 Max. | 平均值 Mean | 标准差 Std. | 最小值 Min. | 最大值 Max. | 平均值 Mean | 标准差 Std. | ||
树木变量Tree variables | n=44 | n=14 | |||||||
年龄Age/a | 11 | 46 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 46 | |
胸径DBH/cm | 7.812 | 32.222 | 7.812 | 32.222 | 7.812 | 32.222 | 7.812 | 32.222 | |
树高HT/m | 6.532 | 20.443 | 6.532 | 20.443 | 6.532 | 20.443 | 6.532 | 20.443 | |
高径比HDR | 0.654 | 1.187 | 0.654 | 1.187 | 0.654 | 1.187 | 0.654 | 1.187 | |
冠幅CW/m | 1.089 | 3.454 | 1.089 | 3.454 | 1.089 | 3.454 | 1.089 | 3.454 | |
冠长CL/m | 4.434 | 12.765 | 4.434 | 12.765 | 4.434 | 12.765 | 4.434 | 12.765 | |
冠长率CLR | 0.421 | 0.809 | 0.421 | 0.809 | 0.421 | 0.809 | 0.421 | 0.809 | |
枝条变量Branch variables | n=1 371 | n=418 | |||||||
枝龄Branch age/a | 1 | 28 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 28 | |
着枝角度BA/(°) | 10 | 90 | 10 | 90 | 10 | 90 | 10 | 90 | |
基径BD/mm | 2.524 | 119.424 | 2.524 | 119.424 | 2.524 | 119.424 | 2.524 | 119.424 | |
枝长BL/m | 0.123 | 4.562 | 0.123 | 4.562 | 0.123 | 4.562 | 0.123 | 4.562 |
Table 3
The basic model selection"
模型Model | 函数表达式Function expression | 函数形式Function form | 来源Source |
M1 | | 幂函数Power | |
M2 | | 修正Kozak方程Modified Kozak equation | |
M3 | | 修正Weibull方程Modified Weibull equation |
Table 4
Fitting and evaluation of basic models"
函数形式Function form | 参数Parameter | 估计值Estimates | 标准误SE | R2 | RMSE | MRE |
幂函数Power | a1 | 8.528 | 1.570 | 0.712 | 0.495 | 15.388 |
a2 | 1.183 | 0.103 | ||||
a3 | -1.252 | 0.204 | ||||
修正Kozak方程 Modified Kozak equation | a1 | 2.172 | 0.030 | 0.690 | 0.890 | 19.450 |
a2 | 0.300 | 1.700 | ||||
a3 | 0.470 | 0.210 | ||||
修正Weibull方程 Modified Weibull equation | a1 | 1.266 | 0.102 | 0.711 | 0.497 | 15.424 |
a2 | 1.929 | 0.055 | ||||
a3 | 3.678 | 0.389 |
Table 5
Correlation coefficient of crown variables with impacting factors respectively"
变量Variables | 统计量Statistics | Age | Sd | CL | DBH | HT | CHR | CW | HDR |
MCR | 相关系数Correlation coefficient | 0.561 8 | -0.534 3 | 0.626 4 | 0.713 5 | 0.565 6 | 0.739 5 | 0.019 0 | -0.564 7 |
P | < 0.000 1 | 0.000 2 | < 0.000 1 | < 0.000 1 | < 0.000 1 | < 0.000 1 | 0.902 5 | < 0.000 1 | |
MRDINC | 相关系数Correlation coefficient | -0.131 1 | 0.060 8 | -0.122 3 | -0.024 9 | -0.024 3 | -0.057 7 | -0.101 0 | -0.044 0 |
P | 0.428 0 | 0.695 0 | 0.429 2 | 0.872 6 | 0.875 8 | 0.710 0 | 0.514 1 | 0.776 9 |
Table 6
Fitting results of different random effects combined models"
模型 Model | 方差结构 Structure of variance | 样地效应 Plot effect | 样木效应 Tree effect | AIC | BIC | logLik | LRT | P | |
ψ1 | ψ2 | ||||||||
15.1 | 无None | 无None | 无None | a4,a5 | 408.175 5 | 450.341 5 | -194.087 7 | ||
15.2 | 无None | 无None | a5 | a5 | 373.277 3 | 412.644 6 | -178.347 6 | 32.898 1 | < 0.000 1 |
15.3 | 无None | 无None | a6 | a4,a5 | 350.050 7 | 396.433 4 | -164.025 4 | 27.226 6 | < 0.000 1 |
15.4 | 对角矩阵 Diagonal matrix | 无None | a4,a6 | a4,a5 | 352.050 7 | 402.650 0 | -164.025 4 | < 0.000 1 | 0.998 5 |
15.5 | 对角矩阵 Diagonal matrix | 无None | a1,a4,a6 | a4,a5 | 354.056 5 | 408.872 4 | -164.028 3 | 0.005 8 | 0.939 5 |
Table 7
Fitting results comparison based on different variance functions"
方差函数Variance function | AIC | BIC | -2logLik | LRT | P |
指数函数Exponential function | 250.073 2 | 304.889 0 | -112.036 6 | ||
广义幂函数Generalized power function | 230.319 1 | 285.135 0 | -102.159 6 | 19.754 0 | < 0.000 1 |
幂函数Power function | 227.724 9 | 286.757 7 | -99.862 4 | 4.594 2 | 0.032 1 |
Table 8
Mixed effects model fitting results"
项目Items | a1 | a2 | a3 | a4 | a5 | a6 |
估计值Estimates | 0.407 | -0.058 | 3.880 | 1.166 | 0.266 | -1.805 |
标准误SE | 0.085 | 0.029 | 0.882 | 0.059 | 0.201 | 0.176 |
样地协方差结构 Covariance structure of plot | ψ1=0.008 | |||||
样木协方差结构 Covariance structure of tree | | |||||
R2 | 0.873 | |||||
RMSE | 0.319 | |||||
MRE | 6.642 |
Table 9
Quantile regression model fitting results"
分位数Quantile point | a1 | a2 | a3 | a4 | a5 | a6 | R2 |
0.50 | 0.569 | -0.113 | 2.323 | 1.113 | 0.291 | -1.571 | 0.732 |
0.55 | 0.563 | -0.110 | 2.480 | 1.111 | 0.281 | -1.580 | 0.739 |
0.60 | 0.508 | -0.094 | 2.901 | 1.097 | 0.197 | -1.521 | 0.745 |
0.65 | 0.488 | -0.085 | 2.811 | 1.077 | 0.305 | -1.534 | 0.754 |
0.70 | 0.488 | -0.087 | 2.849 | 1.059 | 0.304 | -1.511 | 0.749 |
0.75 | 0.457 | -0.078 | 2.725 | 1.027 | 0.280 | -1.415 | 0.747 |
0.80 | 0.382 | -0.062 | 2.668 | 0.948 | 0.316 | -1.256 | 0.732 |
0.85 | 0.343 | -0.049 | 2.252 | 0.872 | 0.416 | -1.175 | 0.716 |
0.90 | 0.340 | -0.058 | 2.404 | 0.842 | 0.507 | -1.148 | 0.672 |
0.95 | 0.500 | -0.094 | 2.601 | 0.883 | 0.135 | -1.113 | 0.478 |
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