林业科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (12): 192-205.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240555
• 研究论文 • 上一篇
收稿日期:2024-09-28
修回日期:2024-11-22
出版日期:2025-12-25
发布日期:2026-01-08
通讯作者:
刘欣
E-mail:1801955624@qq.com
基金资助:
Guoyong Ma,Xin Liu*(
),Yandi Liu
Received:2024-09-28
Revised:2024-11-22
Online:2025-12-25
Published:2026-01-08
Contact:
Xin Liu
E-mail:1801955624@qq.com
摘要:
目的: 分析山水林田湖草保护修复效率对林业新质生产力发展的影响及其作用机制,为山水林田湖草保护修复提升林业新质生产力发展水平提供科学依据,为推动林业高质量发展提供新思路和新视角。方法: 利用2012—2022年我国31个省(区、市)面板数据,采用基于非期望产出的全局超效率SBM模型测度山水林田湖草保护修复效率,应用熵值法从劳动者、劳动对象和劳动资料3方面构建指标体系评估林业新质生产力发展水平,通过中介效应模型等实证分析山水林田湖草保护修复效率对林业新质生产力发展的影响及其作用机制。结果: 1) 我国31个省(区、市)山水林田湖草保护修复效率和林业新质生产力发展水平均呈逐年上升趋势,且表现出明显的区域差异。2) 直接影响分析结果表明,山水林田湖草保护修复效率能够直接促进林业新质生产力发展。3) 间接影响分析结果表明,山水林田湖草保护修复效率可通过提高林业技术创新水平、林业产业结构升级、政府干预等间接促进林业新质生产力发展。4) 异质性分析结果表明,随着林业新质生产力水平不断提升,山水林田湖草保护修复效率对林业新质生产力发展的影响日益增强;山水林田湖草保护修复效率提升能够显著促进我国东部和中部地区林业新质生产力发展。结论: 2012—2022 年我国31个省(区、市)山水林田湖草保护修复效率不断提高,林业新质生产力发展水平有所上升,林业技术创新水平、林业产业结构升级、政府干预等因素在不同程度上促进林业新质生产力发展。同时,山水林田湖草保护修复效率能够直接促进林业新质生产力发展,应注重山水林田湖草系统治理,优化资源配置,加强引导社会资本投入;聚焦科技前沿,加强林业科技投入,强化林业产业结构优化升级,注重政策引导;进一步因地制宜,靶向施策,实施差异化发展策略,提升山水林田湖草生态保护修复赋能林业新质生产力发展水平。
中图分类号:
马国勇,刘欣,刘艳迪. 山水林田湖草保护修复效率对林业新质生产力发展的影响及机制[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(12): 192-205.
Guoyong Ma,Xin Liu,Yandi Liu. Influence and Mechanism of the Protection and Restoration Efficiency of Mountains, Waters, Forests, Fields, Lakes and Grasses on New Quality Productivity in Forestry[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(12): 192-205.
表1
山水林田湖草保护修复效率投入产出指标"
| 指标类型 Indicator type | 一级指标 Primary indicator | 二级指标 Secondary indicator | 三级指标 Tertiary indicator |
| 投入 Input | 社会投入 Social input | 劳动力 Labor | 第一产业从业人员 Employees engaged in the primary industry |
| 经济投入 Economic input | 资本 Capital | 公共财政支出 Public finance expenditures | |
| 自然资源投入 Natural resources input | 林地资源 Forestland resources | 林地面积 Forestland area | |
| 耕地资源 Cultivated land resources | 耕地面积 Cultivated land area | ||
| 草地资源 Grassland resources | 草地面积 Grassland area | ||
| 水资源 water resources | 水域面积 Water area | ||
| 产出 Output | 期望产出 Desirable output | 经济效益 Economic benefits | 第一产业增加值 Added value of the primary industry |
| 非期望产出 Undesirable output | 环境污染 Environmental pollution | 二氧化碳排放量 CO2 emissions |
表2
林业新质生产力评价指标体系"
| 一级指标 Primary indicator | 二级指标 Secondary indicator | 三级指标 Tertiary indicator | 具体指标说明 Description of specific indicator | 属性 Attribute |
| 劳动者 Laborer | 劳动者素质 Quality of labor | 文化程度 Education level | 农村劳动力人均受教育年限 Years of education per rural laborer | + |
| 教育培育 Educational nurturing | 农村成人技术培训人数/乡村人口数量 Number of rural adults received technical training/number of rural populations | + | ||
| 劳动生产率 Labor productivity | 第一产业人均产值 Output per capita in the primary industry | 第一产业总产值/第一产业从业人数 Total output value of the primary industry/number of employees in the primary industry | + | |
| 农村居民人均收入 Rural per capita income | 农村居民人均可支配收入 Rural per capita disposable income | + | ||
| 就业结构 Employment structure | 1?(第一产业就业人数/乡村就业人数) 1?(number of employees in the primary industry/rural employment) | + | ||
| 劳动者潜力 Labor potential | 林业科技投入人数 Number of people investing in forestry technology | R&D人员全时当量×(地区林业总产值/地区总产值) Full-time equivalent of R&D personnel × (regional forestry output/regional GDP) | + | |
| 劳动对象 Labor objects | 产业发展 Industrial development | 林业产业合理化 Rationalization of the forestry industry | 1?林业总产值/农林牧渔业总产值 1?total forestry output value/total output value of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery | + |
| 林业产业高级化 Advanced of the forestry industry | 林业三产产值/林业总产值×3+林业二产产值/林业总产值×2+林业一产产值/林业总产值 Output value of the forestry tertiary industry/total output value of the forestry industry × 3 + output value of the forestry secondary industry/total output value of the forestry industry × 2 + output value of the forestry primary industry/total output value of the forestry industry | + | ||
| 资源环境 Resources Environment | 环保力度 Environmental protection | 环境保护财政支出/政府公共财政支出 Financial expenditure on environmental protection/government public finance expenditure | + | |
| 绿色生态 Green ecology | 森林数量(森林覆盖率) Forest number (forest cover) | + | ||
| 森林质量(森林蓄积量) Forest quality (forest stock) | — | |||
| 森林灾害(森林有害生物发生率) Forest disasters (incidence of forest pests) | — | |||
| 劳动资料 Means of labor | 有形劳动资料 Tangible means of labor | 传统基础设施 Traditional infrastructure | 农村公路里程数/乡村人口 Miles of rural roads/rural population | + |
| 数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure | 农村宽带接入用户数/农村户数 Rural broadband access subscribers/rural households | + | ||
| 能源消耗 Energy consumption | 能源消耗总量/农林牧渔业总产值 Total energy consumption/gross production value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery | — | ||
| 无形劳动资料 Intangible means of labor | 科技创新 Technological innovation | R&D经费×(地区林业总产值/地区总产值) R&D expenditure × (regional forestry output/regional GDP) | + | |
| 林业投资 Forestry investment | 林业完成投资额度 Forestry completed the investment quota | + | ||
| 数字化发展 Digital development | 农村数字普惠金融发展指数 Rural digital inclusive finance development index | + |
表3
变量的描述性统计"
| 变量类型 Variable types | 变量名称 Variables | 观测值 Observations | 均值 Mean value | 标准差 Standard deviation | 最小值 Minimum value | 最大值 Maximum value |
| 被解释变量 Dependent variable | 林业新质生产力 Forestry new quality productivity | 341 | 0.295 | 0.071 | 0.150 | 0.543 |
| 核心解释变量 Independent variable | 山水林田湖草保护修复效率 Efficiency of protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes and grasses | 341 | 0.382 | 0.278 | 0.090 | 1.518 |
| 控制变量 Control variables | 经济发展水平 Economic development level | 341 | 10.910 | 0.463 | 9.849 | 12.156 |
| 城镇化水平 Urbanization level | 341 | 0.598 | 0.127 | 0.228 | 0.896 | |
| 开放程度 Openness level | 341 | 0.268 | 0.290 | 0.008 | 1.943 | |
| 生态环境 Ecological environment | 341 | 0.281 | 0.205 | 0.001 | 1.708 | |
| 林业投资规模 Forestry investment scale | 341 | 4.492 | 0.936 | 1.674 | 6.990 | |
| 中介变量 Mediating variables | 林业技术创新 Forestry technology innovation | 341 | 3.109 | 3.026 | 0.003 | 18.884 |
| 林业产业结构升级 Forestry industry structural upgrades | 341 | 1.670 | 0.333 | 0.357 | 2.808 | |
| 政府干预 Degree of government intervention | 341 | 58.739 | 19.669 | 6.000 | 124.000 |
表4
我国31个省(区、市)山水林田湖草保护修复效率综合指数与排序"
| 省(区、市) Provinces (autonomous region, municipalities) | 2012 | 2017 | 2022 | |||||
| 综合指数 Comprehensive index | 排名 Ranking | 综合指数 Comprehensive index | 排名 Ranking | 综合指数 Comprehensive index | 排名 Ranking | |||
| 北京 Beijing | 0.140 | 27 | 0.119 | 30 | 0.128 | 31 | ||
| 天津 Tianjin | 0.166 | 22 | 0.176 | 23 | 1.006 | 10 | ||
| 河北 Hebei | 0.621 | 7 | 0.433 | 7 | 0.539 | 12 | ||
| 山东 Shandong | 1.004 | 5 | 0.521 | 4 | 1.087 | 3 | ||
| 上海 Shanghai | 1.050 | 1 | 0.845 | 2 | 1.049 | 6 | ||
| 江苏 Jiangsu | 1.009 | 3 | 1.021 | 1 | 1.103 | 2 | ||
| 浙江 Zhejiang | 0.317 | 11 | 0.408 | 8 | 1.053 | 5 | ||
| 广东 Guangdong | 0.221 | 15 | 0.268 | 13 | 0.455 | 15 | ||
| 福建 Fujian | 0.387 | 9 | 0.434 | 6 | 1.054 | 4 | ||
| 海南 Hainan | 1.009 | 2 | 0.500 | 5 | 1.187 | 1 | ||
| 河南 Henan | 0.686 | 6 | 0.550 | 3 | 1.046 | 7 | ||
| 湖北 Hubei | 0.469 | 8 | 0.278 | 11 | 0.423 | 18 | ||
| 湖南 Hunan | 1.007 | 4 | 0.249 | 16 | 0.490 | 13 | ||
| 山西 Shanxi | 0.149 | 26 | 0.145 | 27 | 0.252 | 27 | ||
| 安徽 Anhui | 0.271 | 12 | 0.305 | 9 | 0.475 | 14 | ||
| 江西 Jiangxi | 0.185 | 20 | 0.204 | 22 | 0.301 | 22 | ||
| 黑龙江 Heilongjiang | 0.187 | 19 | 0.233 | 19 | 0.297 | 24 | ||
| 吉林 Jilin | 0.137 | 28 | 0.129 | 29 | 0.202 | 29 | ||
| 辽宁 Liaoning | 0.257 | 13 | 0.224 | 21 | 0.298 | 23 | ||
| 内蒙古Inner Mongolia | 0.134 | 29 | 0.143 | 28 | 0.229 | 28 | ||
| 广西 Guangxi | 0.370 | 10 | 0.276 | 12 | 1.010 | 9 | ||
| 陕西 Shaanxi | 0.219 | 16 | 0.257 | 14 | 0.602 | 11 | ||
| 甘肃 Gansu | 0.166 | 23 | 0.159 | 26 | 0.274 | 26 | ||
| 青海 Qinghai | 0.123 | 30 | 0.164 | 25 | 0.279 | 25 | ||
| 四川 Sichuan | 0.218 | 17 | 0.247 | 17 | 0.354 | 20 | ||
| 贵州 Guizhou | 0.150 | 25 | 0.299 | 10 | 1.031 | 8 | ||
| 云南 Yunnan | 0.150 | 24 | 0.174 | 24 | 0.308 | 21 | ||
| 新疆 Xinjiang | 0.221 | 14 | 0.229 | 20 | 0.438 | 17 | ||
| 宁夏 Ningxia | 0.205 | 18 | 0.255 | 15 | 0.444 | 16 | ||
| 重庆 Chongqing | 0.184 | 21 | 0.243 | 18 | 0.407 | 19 | ||
| 西藏 Xizang | 0.090 | 31 | 0.115 | 31 | 0.149 | 30 | ||
表5
我国31个省(区、市)林业新质生产力发展水平综合指数与排序"
| 省(区、市) Provinces (autonomous region, municipalities) | 2012 | 2017 | 2022 | |||||
| 综合指数 Comprehensive index | 排名 Ranking | 综合指数 Comprehensive index | 排名 Ranking | 综合指数 Comprehensive index | 排名 Ranking | |||
| 北京 Beijing | 0.304 | 2 | 0.387 | 3 | 0.441 282 5 | 5 | ||
| 天津 Tianjin | 0.239 | 13 | 0.295 | 16 | 0.325 088 3 | 21 | ||
| 河北 Hebei | 0.215 | 21 | 0.282 | 20 | 0.325 088 8 | 20 | ||
| 山东 Shandong | 0.253 | 12 | 0.317 | 9 | 0.334 028 5 | 17 | ||
| 上海 Shanghai | 0.272 | 7 | 0.296 | 14 | 0.411 439 5 | 6 | ||
| 江苏 Jiangsu | 0.268 | 8 | 0.326 | 7 | 0.389 188 1 | 9 | ||
| 浙江 Zhejiang | 0.344 | 1 | 0.392 | 1 | 0.542 773 5 | 1 | ||
| 广东 Guangdong | 0.289 | 5 | 0.388 | 2 | 0.490 674 4 | 3 | ||
| 福建 Fujian | 0.300 | 3 | 0.374 | 4 | 0.455 193 7 | 4 | ||
| 海南 Hainan | 0.293 | 4 | 0.367 | 5 | 0.511 289 2 | 2 | ||
| 河南 Henan | 0.234 | 16 | 0.287 | 19 | 0.304 866 1 | 24 | ||
| 湖北 Hubei | 0.203 | 24 | 0.277 | 22 | 0.351 576 0 | 13 | ||
| 湖南 Hunan | 0.232 | 18 | 0.296 | 15 | 0.399 866 0 | 7 | ||
| 山西 Shanxi | 0.187 | 27 | 0.234 | 27 | 0.268 293 9 | 27 | ||
| 安徽 Anhui | 0.189 | 26 | 0.297 | 13 | 0.345 911 6 | 15 | ||
| 江西 Jiangxi | 0.237 | 14 | 0.323 | 8 | 0.377 459 1 | 11 | ||
| 黑龙江 Heilongjiang | 0.256 | 10 | 0.301 | 12 | 0.323 662 5 | 21 | ||
| 吉林 Jilin | 0.220 | 19 | 0.245 | 26 | 0.267 142 1 | 28 | ||
| 辽宁 Liaoning | 0.256 | 11 | 0.279 | 21 | 0.256 251 7 | 29 | ||
| 内蒙古Inner Mongolia | 0.193 | 25 | 0.225 | 28 | 0.271 094 6 | 26 | ||
| 广西 Guangxi | 0.281 | 6 | 0.356 | 6 | 0.397 105 3 | 8 | ||
| 陕西 Shaanxi | 0.215 | 20 | 0.258 | 24 | 0.315 699 9 | 23 | ||
| 甘肃 Gansu | 0.153 | 31 | 0.188 | 30 | 0.254 505 3 | 30 | ||
| 青海 Qinghai | 0.166 | 29 | 0.252 | 25 | 0.340 097 3 | 16 | ||
| 四川 Sichuan | 0.212 | 22 | 0.304 | 11 | 0.368 620 2 | 12 | ||
| 贵州 Guizhou | 0.207 | 23 | 0.295 | 17 | 0.348 685 5 | 14 | ||
| 云南 Yunnan | 0.264 | 9 | 0.315 | 10 | 0.388 413 0 | 10 | ||
| 新疆 Xinjiang | 0.236 | 15 | 0.268 | 23 | 0.326 842 0 | 19 | ||
| 宁夏 Ningxia | 0.185 | 28 | 0.223 | 29 | 0.281 359 0 | 25 | ||
| 重庆 Chongqing | 0.232 | 17 | 0.290 | 18 | 0.333 807 0 | 18 | ||
| 西藏 Xizang | 0.164 | 30 | 0.185 | 31 | 0.230 053 0 | 31 | ||
表6
基准回归结果①"
| 变量 Variable | 模型(1) Model(1) | 模型(2) Model(2) |
| 山水林田湖草保护修复效率 Efficiency of protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes and grasses | 0.114*** (0.015) | 0.028*** (0.008) |
| 经济发展水平 Economic development level | 0.158*** (0.012) | |
| 城镇化水平 Urbanizatiom level | ?0.072 (0.061) | |
| 开放程度 Openness level | ?0.005 (0.009) | |
| 生态环境 Ecological environment | ?0.014 (0.012) | |
| 林业投资规模 Forestry investment scale | 0.016*** (0.003) | |
| 常数项 Constant | 0.252*** (0.011) | ?1.467*** (0.100) |
| 豪斯曼检验 Hausman test | 0.26 | 6.65 |
| 观测值 Observations | 341 | 341 |
| R2 | 0.152 | 0.795 |
表7
稳健性检验结果①"
| 变量 Variable | 更换被解释变量测度 方法 Replace the method of measuring the dependent variable | 数据缩尾 Data suffocation | 剔除直辖市样本 Excluding samples of municipalities | 控制区域时间趋势项 Measurement method of independent variables changed |
| 山水林田湖草保护修复效率 Efficiency of protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes and grasses | 0.154** (0.060) | 0.023*** (0.008) | 0.951*** (0.009) | 0.024*** (0.007) |
| 控制变量 Control variable | √ | √ | √ | √ |
| 区域时间趋势项 Area time trend item | × | × | × | √ |
| 常数项 Constant | ?11.895*** (0.774) | ?1.458*** (0.097) | ?0.032 (0.023) | ?11.357*** (1.115) |
| 豪斯曼检验 Hausman test | 151.11*** | 7.83 | 16.55** | 88.09*** |
| 观测值 Observations | 341 | 341 | 297 | 341 |
| R2 | 0.849 | 0.802 | 0.996 | 0.844 |
表8
两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)估计内生性检验结果①"
| 变量Variable | 模型(1) Model(1) | 模型(2) Model(2) |
| 工具变量 Instrumental variable | 0.812*** (0.037) | |
| (L.)山水林田湖草保护修复效率 (L.)Efficiency of protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes and grasses | 0.040*** (0.014) | |
| 控制变量 Control variable | √ | √ |
| 常数项 Constant | ?1.241*** (0.356) | ?0.994*** (0.109) |
| 观测值 Observations | 310 | 310 |
| R2 | 0.696 | 0.571 |
表9
影响机制分析结果①"
| 变量 Variable | 林业技术创新 Forestry technology innovation | 林业产业结构升级 Forestry industry structural upgrades | 政府干预 Degree of government intervention |
| 山水林田湖草保护修复效率 Efficiency of protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes and grasses | 0.015** (0.007) | 0.027*** (0.008) | 0.967*** (0.008) |
| 控制变量 Control variable | √ | √ | √ |
| 常数项 Constant | ?1.110*** (0.097) | ?1.479*** (0.100) | ?0.427** (0.019) |
| 豪斯曼检验 Hausman test | 13.56* | 3.34 | 14.99** |
| 观测值 Observations | 341 | 341 | 341 |
| R2 | 0.856 | 0.797 | 0.996 |
表10
不同林业新质生产力水平异质性分析结果①"
| 变量 Variable | 0.10分位点 0.10 quantile | 0.25分位点 0.25 quantile | 0.50分位点 0.50 quantile | 0.75分位点 0.75 quantile | 0.90分位点 0.90 quantile |
| 山水林田湖草保护修复效率 Efficiency of protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes and grasses | 0.015 (0.016) | 0.018* (0.011) | 0.030*** (0.011) | 0.044** (0.018) | 0.059** (0.023) |
| 控制变量 Control variable | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ |
| 常数项 Constant | ?0.831*** (0.154) | ?1.052*** (0.104) | ?1.106*** (0.105) | ?1.069*** (0.182) | ?1.162*** (0.231) |
| 观测值 Observations | 341 | 341 | 341 | 341 | 341 |
| R2 | 0.409 | 0.402 | 0.401 | 0.374 | 0.395 |
表11
区域异质性回归结果①"
| 变量 Variable | 东部地区 Eastern region | 中部地区 Central region | 西部地区 Western region | 东北地区 Northeast region |
| 山水林田湖草保护 修复效率 Efficiency of protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes and grasses | 0.044*** (0.013) | 0.022* (0.014) | 0.009 (0.017) | ?0.026 (0.023) |
| 控制变量 Control variable | √ | √ | √ | √ |
| 常数项 Constant | ?1.931*** (0.181) | ?1.605*** (0.181) | ?0.839*** (0.172) | ?0.065 (0.320) |
| 豪斯曼检验 Hausman test | 21.66*** | ?19.60 | 8.20 | 0.52 |
| 观测值 Observations | 110 | 66 | 132 | 33 |
| R2 | 0.873 | 0.836 | 0.861 | 0.582 |
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