新一轮集体林权制度改革成效、乡镇林业站职能效率和农户增收——基于面板向量自回归模型的实证分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240484

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 构建“林改?机构?农户”三元分析框架，探讨新一轮集体林权制度改革成效（简称新林改成效）、乡镇林业站职能效率（简称林业站效率）和农户增收的相互影响关系，为集体林权制度改革与发展提供新的视角和实证依据，为深化集体林权制度改革提供政策思路。方法: 基于省级面板数据构建相关指标体系，采用熵权法和超效率SBM模型对新林改成效和林业站效率进行量化评价，建立面板向量自回归模型深入探究新林改成效、林业站效率和农户增收之间的相互影响作用。结果: 1）新林改成效、林业站效率和农户增收在不同地区呈现出多样化特征，相互间存在一定的正向推动作用。2）新林改成效和农户增收存在自我强化作用；林业站效率受自身资源分配条件限制，具有短期的自我抑制效应。3）新林改成效和农户增收在受到各自冲击时，当期均能达到正向最大峰值并可保持3~4期的持续作用；林业站效率在第1期出现负向响应后会变为正向响应，并逐渐衰减趋于平稳。结论: 新林改成效、林业站效率和农户增收三者之间存在相互促进与制约关系。在构建三位一体协同机制的基础上，应充分利用新林改成效的自我强化作用，加强政策协同，持续推进集体林权制度改革；合理配置林业站资源，增加建设投入资金，确保改革成效转化为农户收益；还需制定针对性政策，拓宽农户收入来源，实现农村可持续发展和农户生活水平提高。

关键词: 集体林权制度改革, 乡镇林业站, 农户增收, 向量自回归模型

Abstract:

Objective: This paper constructs a triadic analytical framework of “forest reform-institution-rural households” to explore the mutual influence among the effectiveness of new round of collective forest tenure reform (hereinafter referred to as the effectiveness of the new forest reform), the functional efficiency of township forestry stations (hereinafter referred to as forestry station efficiency), and rural households’ income growth to provide a new perspective and empirical evidence for the reform and development of collective forest tenure, thereby offering policy insights for deepening the reform. Method: This paper adopts Chinese provincial panel data to construct a relevant indicator system. It utilizes the entropy weight method and the super-efficiency model (SBM) to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the new forest reform and forestry station efficiency. Subsequently, a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is established to investigate the mutual influence among the effectiveness of the new forest reform, forestry station efficiency, and rural households’ income growth. Result: 1) The effectiveness of the new forest reform, forestry station efficiency, and rural households’ income growth exhibit diversified characteristics across different regions, with a certain positive propelling effect among them. 2) The effectiveness of the new forest reform and rural households’ income growth demonstrate self-reinforcing effects, whereas forestry station efficiency, constrained by its own resource allocation conditions, exhibits a short-term self-inhibiting effect. 3) When impacted by their respective shocks, the effectiveness of the new forest reform and rural households’ income growth can both reach positive maximum peaks in the current period and sustain for 3-4 periods. In contrast, forestry station efficiency exhibits a negative response in the first period, which then turns positive and gradually declines towards stability. Conclusion: There is a mutual promotion and restriction relationship among the effectiveness of the new forest reform, forestry station efficiency, and rural households’ income growth. This paper argues that, based on the construction of a ternary collaborative mechanism, the self-reinforcing effect of the effectiveness of the new forest reform should be fully utilized to strengthen policy coordination and continuously advance collective forest tenure reform. Resources at forestry stations should be allocated reasonably, and construction investment should be increased to ensure that the effectiveness of the reform is translated into rural households’ income. Additionally, targeted policies need to be formulated to broaden rural households’ income sources, thereby achieving rural sustainable development and improving household living standards.

Key words: collective forest tenure reform, township forestry stations, rural households’ income growth, panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model

中图分类号:

S7-9
F326.2

许毓坤,薛泽茜,庄伟卿,宋立,黄安胜. 新一轮集体林权制度改革成效、乡镇林业站职能效率和农户增收——基于面板向量自回归模型的实证分析[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(10): 236-246.

Yukun Xu,Zexi Xue,Weiqing Zhuang,Li Song,Ansheng Huang. Effectiveness of New Round of Collective Forest Tenure Reform, Functional Efficiency of Township Forestry Stations, and Rural Households’ Income Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Vector Autoregression Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(10): 236-246.

图/表 9

表1

新林改成效评价指标体系①"

一级指标 First-level indicators	二级指标 Second-level indicators	选择依据 Criteria for selection	备注Remarks
森林资源与生态效益Forest resources and ecological benefits	森林面积Forest area	直接反映森林资源的规模Directly reflect the scale of forest resources	+
	造林面积Afforestation area	反映区域生态环境的提升质量Reflect the improved quality of the regional ecological environment	+
	活立木总蓄积量 Total standing stock volume	反映森林资源的储备和潜在经济价值Reflect the reserve and potential economic value of forest resources	+
林业经济与产业发展Forestry economy and industrial development	林业总产值 Total output value of forestry	衡量林业整体经济活动的规模和成果Measure the scale and achievements of the overall economic activities in forestry	+
	林业产业结构Forestry industrial structure	林业第三产业在林业产业中的占比，反映林业产业结构优化情况The proportion of the tertiary industry in forestry industry， reflecting the optimization of the forestry industrial structure	+
	林业系统新增固定资产New fixed assets of the forestry system	反映对林业系统的投资力度Reflect the investment intensity in the forestry system	+
	林业企业年平均工资Annual average salary of forestry enterprises	衡量林业企业经济效益和员工福利Measure the economic benefits of forestry enterprises and the welfare of employees	+
社会经济与民生影响Socio-economic and livelihood impacts	集体林采伐量与农村人口比值 Ratio of the volume of collective forest harvesting to the rural population	反映新林改对农村居民的直接经济贡献Reflect the direct economic contribution of new round of collective forest tenure reform to rural residents	+
	城乡居民收入水平对比Income level ratio between urban and rural residents	城乡居民收入水平对比（以农村居民收入水平为1），体现新林改对缩小城乡差距的作用Income level ratio between urban and rural residents （with rural residents’ income level set as 1）， demonstrating the role of new round of collective forest tenure reform in narrowing the urban-rural gap	?
	农村恩格尔系数 Engel’s coefficient in rural areas	农民食品支出占消费性支出的比例，间接反映集体林业发展带来的经济效应The proportion of rural residents’ food expenditures in their consumptive expenditures， indirectly reflecting the economic effects brought about by the development of collective forestry	?
	农村用电量Electricity consumption in rural areas	反映农村经济发展和居民生活水平变化Reflect the changes in rural economic development and the living standards of residents	+
林业管理与挑战Forestry management and challenges	森林病害发生面积与森林面积比Ratio of forest disease occurrence area to forest area	体现林业管理中森林生态系统中病害的监测防控压力与挑战Reflect the monitoring and control pressure as well as challenges of forest diseases in forest ecosystems in forestry management	?
林业管理与挑战Forestry management and challenges	森林虫害发生面积与森林面积比Ratio of forest pest occurrence area to forest area	反映林业管理中森林虫害的防治压力与林业资源保护的现实挑战Reflect the pressure of forest pest control and the real challenges of forestry resource protection in forestry management	?

表1

表2

乡镇林业站职能效率的投入、产出变量"

投入、产出变量 Input and output variables		选择依据 Criteria for selection
投入变量 Input variables	长期职工数量 Number of permanent employees	反映林业站人力资源的稳定性与规模数量Reflect the stability and scale of human resources in forestry stations
	职工中大专生比例Proportion of employees with junior college diplomas	反映林业站的专业管理效率和服务质量Reflect the professional management efficiency and service quality of forestry stations
	国家投资额Amount of national investment	显示中央政府对林业站的支持力度，包括设施建设、设备更新和技术引进等 Demonstrate the support of the central government for forestry stations， including facility construction， equipment renewal and technology introduction， etc.
	地方投资额Amount of local investment	反映地方政府对林业的重视程度，有助于响应新林改后的具体需求和挑战Reflect the degree of importance that local governments attach to forestry and help respond to specific needs and challenges after the new round of collective forest tenure reform
产出变量 Output variables	造林面积Afforestation area	作为林业站的核心任务之一，是衡量森林资源增加和林业生态修复的关键指标As one of the core tasks of forestry stations， it is a key indicator for measuring the increase in forest resources and the restoration of forestry ecology
	病虫害防治面积Area of pest and disease prevention and control	反映林业站保护职能，是保障林业资源健康的重要手段Reflect the protection function of forestry stations and is an important means to ensure the health of forestry resources
	示范基地面积 Area of demonstration bases	展示林业成果和技术效果，体现新林改后对林业经营的引导和推动Showcase the achievements and technological effects of forestry and reflect the guidance and promotion of forestry management after the new round of collective forest tenure reform
	科技推广面积Area of science and technology promotion	提升林业现代化水平的关键，反映林业站对林业技术的传播和应用程度It is the key to improving the modernization level of forestry， reflecting the dissemination and application degree of forestry technologies by forestry stations
	参与调处林权纠纷数量Number of forest tenure disputes participated in mediation and settlement	体现林业站在新林改中的协调作用，维护林区社会稳定，确保改革顺利进行Embody the coordinating role of forestry stations in the new round of collective forest tenure reform， maintain social stability in forest areas and ensure the smooth progress of the reform
	受理林业承包合同纠纷数量Number of forestry contract disputes accepted for handling	反映林业站在合同管理方面的服务能力，确保林权交易的合法性和规范性Reflect the service ability of forestry stations in contract management and ensure the legality and standardization of forest tenure transactions

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

表7

表8

图1

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省份 Province	新林改成效评价指数 Index of the effectiveness of new round of collective forest tenure reform	林业站效率评价指数 Index of the efficiency of forestry stations	农户增收 Rural households’ income growth/yuan	省份 Province	新林改成效评价指数 Index of the effectiveness of new round of collective forest tenure reform	林业站效率评价指数 Index of the efficiency of forestry stations	农户增收 Rural households’ income growth/yuan
北京Beijing	0.116	0.191	19 744	湖北Hubei	0.147	0.544	10 465
河北Hebei	0.137	0.366	10 163	湖南Hunan	0.186	0.374	9 955
山西Shanxi	0.077	0.552	8 450	广东Guangdong	0.274	0.173	12 678
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	0.247	0.543	9 890	广西Guangxi	0.383	0.036	8 539
辽宁Liaoning	0.132	0.093	11 134	重庆Chongqing	0.098	0.411	9 656
吉林Jilin	0.155	0.020	10 315	四川Sichuan	0.252	0.177	9 358
黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.235	0.103	10 239	贵州Guizhou	0.153	0.399	6 672
江苏Jiangsu	0.231	0.362	15 137	云南Yunnan	0.244	0.505	7 446
浙江Zhejiang	0.193	0.317	19 363	陕西Shaanxi	0.126	0.195	7 778
安徽Anhui	0.136	0.203	9 749	甘肃Gansu	0.087	0.190	6 167
福建Fujian	0.202	0.224	12 791	青海Qinghai	0.060	0.489	7 232
江西Jiangxi	0.168	0.136	10 226	宁夏Ningxia	0.060	0.572	8 269
山东Shandong	0.166	0.496	11 836	新疆Xinjiang	0.109	0.519	8 438
河南Henan	0.119	0.386	9 825	均值Mean	0.166	0.318	10 426

变量Variable	均值Mean	标准差Std.	最小值Min.	最大值Max.
Ncfte	0.166	0.083	0.037	0.539
Tfwe	0.318	0.414	0.000	2.030
Rhii	8.787	0.437	7.731	9.903

变量Variable	P
变量Variable	LLC	IPS	HT	ADF-Fisher	Phillips-Perron
Ncfte	0.068	0.078	0.977	0.935	0.974
Tfwe	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Rhii	0.000	0.000	0.973	0.529	0.893
D.Ncfte	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
D.Tfwe	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
D.Rhii	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.002	0.000

原假设Original hypothesis	$ {X}^{2} $	自由度df	P
Tfwe不是Ncfte的格兰杰原因Tfwe is not a Granger cause of Ncfte	0.157	1	0.692
Rhii不是Ncfte的格兰杰原因Rhii is not a Granger cause of Ncfte	8.280	1	0.004
所有变量都不是Ncfte的格兰杰原因None of the variables are Granger causes of Ncfte	8.682	2	0.013
Ncfte不是Tfwe的格兰杰原因Ncfte is not a Granger cause of Tfwe	1.727	1	0.189
Rhii不是Tfwe的格兰杰原因Rhii is not a Granger cause of Tfwe	3.600	1	0.058
所有变量都不是Tfwe的格兰杰原因None of the variables are Granger causes of Tfwe	4.525	2	0.104
Ncfte不是Rhii的格兰杰原因Ncfte is not a Granger cause of Rhii	2.790	1	0.095
Tfwe不是Rhii的格兰杰原因Tfwe is not a Granger cause of Rhii	3.869	1	0.049
所有变量都不是Rhii的格兰杰原因None of the variables are Granger causes of Rhii	6.793	2	0.033

滞后阶数Lag order	AIC	BIC	HQIC
1	?7.597	?6.478^*	?7.149^*
2	?7.617	?6.298	?7.087
3	?7.679^*	?6.127	?7.054