新一轮集体林权制度改革对农户经济福利的作用机制与影响测度

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240469

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 改善农户经济福利水平是新一轮集体林权制度改革（简称“新林改”）的主要政策目标。本研究试图回答新林改对农户经济福利的影响，基于林业生产投资和非农就业的中介视角，揭示新林改福利效应的作用机制，为优化家庭生产结构、提升农户经济福利提供参考。方法: 利用全国9省（区）18县（市）862户2003—2019年长期跟踪大样本农户调查数据，从林业生产投资和非农就业视角出发，探究新林改对农户经济福利的作用机制，采用双重差分模型和中介效应模型估计新林改对农户经济福利的影响。结果: 1）新林改能够显著增加农户家庭总收入和总消费，进而提升经济福利水平；2）增加林业生产投资和提高非农就业程度是新林改发挥经济福利效应的主要路径；3）新林改对经济欠发达地区和森林资源禀赋较高地区的经济福利效应更大，对低收入水平农户群体的收入效应和中等消费水平农户群体的消费效应更为显著；4）新林改对持有林权证时间较长农户经济福利的促进作用更大，集体林地颁证比例越高，农户经济福利提升效应越大。结论: 新林改能够有效提升农户经济福利，但新林改经济福利效应的发挥具有一定滞后性，且具有明显的群体和时空上的异质性。需要继续通过确权颁证确保每个农户所有林地地块均能拿到产权证，并且继续保持集体林地承包关系长期稳定，以及通过精准识别农户群体异质性实施精准帮扶、加强经济欠发达地区和森林资源丰富度较高地区的林业政策扶持和项目倾斜来助推农户经济福利实现有效提升。

关键词: 新一轮集体林权制度改革, 经济福利, 林业生产投资, 非农就业, 中介效应

Abstract:

Objective: Improving the level of economic welfare of farm households is the main policy objective of collective forestland tenure reform. This paper tries to answer the impact of collective forestland tenure reform on the economic welfare of farm households, and reveals the mechanism of the welfare effect of collective forestland tenure reform based on the intermediary perspective of forestry production investment and off-farm employment, which is of great significance for optimizing the structure of household production and improving the economic welfare of farm households. Method: Based on the long-term tracking large-sample farm household survey data of 862 households in 18 counties (cities) of 9 provinces (regions) across China from 2003 to 2019, the mechanism of collective forestland tenure reform on the economic welfare of farm households is studied from the perspectives of investment in forestry production and off-farm employment, and the effects of collective forestland tenure reform on the economic welfare of farm households are estimated by using the difference in difference model and the mediation effect model. Result: 1) Collective forestland tenure reform can significantly increase the total income and consumption of farm households, which in turn will enhance economic well-being. 2) Increasing investment in forestry production and higher the degree of off-farm employment are the main pathways to realize the economic welfare of collective forestland tenure reform. 3) The economic welfare effect of collective forestland tenure reform on less economically developed areas and areas with higher forest resource endowment is greater; and the income-generating effect of the low-income level farm household group and the wealth effect of the middle-consumption level farm household group is more significant. 4) The promotion effect of collective forestland tenure reform on the economic welfare of farm households who have held forest right certificates for a longer period of time is greater than that of those who have held them for a shorter period of time, and the higher the proportion of collective forest land certificates, the greater the effect of improving the economic welfare of farm households. Conclusion: Collective forestland tenure reform can effectively improve the economic welfare of farm households, but the economic welfare effect of collective forestland tenure reform has a certain lag, and has obvious group and spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to ensure that all forest land parcels of each farm household can obtain property rights certificates by confirming rights and issuing certificates, and to continue to maintain the long-term stability of the contractual relationship of collective forest land, as well as to implement precise assistance by accurately identifying the heterogeneity of the farm households’ groups, and to strengthen the forestry policy support and project tilting of economically underdeveloped areas and areas with high forest resource abundance in order to help promote the effective enhancement of the economic welfare of the farm households.

Key words: collective forestland tenure reform, economic welfare, investment in forestry production, off-farm employment, mediating effects

中图分类号:

S7-9
F326.2

魏建,戴永务,刘璨. 新一轮集体林权制度改革对农户经济福利的作用机制与影响测度[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(9): 195-210.

Jian Wei,Yongwu Dai,Can Liu. Mechanism and Impact Measurement of the New Round of Collective Forestland Tenure Reform on the Economic Welfare of Farm Households[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(9): 195-210.

图/表 16

表1

变量的统计性描述①"

变量Variable	变量说明Variable description	2003	2011	2019
总收入 Total revenue/yuan	农户家庭年总收入 Total annual income of farm households	13 342.6936 (15 911.081 4)	24 522.817 8 (26 869.762 1)	38 516.7773 (65 818.922 3)
总消费 Total consumption/yuan	农户家庭年总消费 Total annual consumption of farm households	8 780.624 3 (7 198.248 0)	15 384.580 8 (28 731.223 8)	19 165.085 2 (15 421.321 5)
新林改 Collective forestland tenure reform	是否获得林权证书（是=1；否=0）Whether forest rights certificates were obtained (yes=1; no=0)	0.070 0 (0.255 3)	0.749 7 (0.433 4)	0.755 2 (0.430 2)
林业生产费用 Forestry production cost/yuan	农户在化肥、种苗、病虫害防治、机械、雇佣劳动力等方面的资金投入Farm households’ capital investment in fertilizer， seedlings， pest control, machinery, hired labor, etc	454.843 7 (1 868.782 4)	840.278 3 (4 076.723 8)	2 520.088 3 (17 883.893 0)
林业劳动时间 Forestry labor hours/d	农户在种植、施肥、病虫害防治、森林抚育等方面的林业劳动时间投入Farm households’ labor time inputs in forestry for planting, fertilization, pest control, forest maintenance, etc.	25.323 8 (60.805 5)	37.405 7 (81.432 6)	31.324 0 (50.968 6)
非农就业 Off-farm employment/d	农户从事非农经营、非农务工的劳动时间投入Labor time input of farm households engaged in non-agricultural operations and non-agricultural migrant work	174.745 0 (216.384 5)	257.430 6 (307.299 9)	198.062 6 (217.954 7)
非农劳动力价格 Non-farm labor prices/(yuan·d^?1)	当地非农就业平均工资 Average local off-farm employment wage	40.515 3 (15.925 9)	52.223 2 (19.199 6)	121.898 6 (31.308 0)
木材价格 Timber price/(yuan·m^?3)	当地木材平均价格 Average local timber price	304.798 7 (45.320 2)	467.035 4 (82.009 0)	506.188 6 (93.897 1)
年龄 Age/a	户主年龄 Age of head of household	45.389 1 (10.543 0)	53.389 1 (10.543 0)	59.965 2 (10.102 1)
性别 Gender	户主性别（男性=1；女性=0） Sex of head of household (male = 1; female = 0)	0.976 3 (0.152 3)	0.976 3 (0.152 3)	0.961 7 (0.192 0)
受教育年限 Educational year/a	户主受教育年限 Years of education of head of household	7.249 1 (2.581 2)	7.408 1 (2.809 8)	6.965 2 (2.992 2)
健康水平 Health level	户主健康状况（健康=1；不健康=0） Health status of head of household (healthy = 1; unhealthy = 0)	0.938 3 (0.240 7)	0.938 3 (0.240 7)	0.790 0 (0.407 5)
干部 Cadre	户主是否是干部（是=1；否=0） Whether the head of household is a cadre (yes=1; no=0)	0.275 2 (0.446 9)	0.258 6 (0.548 8)	0.179 8 (0.384 3)
家庭人口数量 Household person		4.214 7 (1.441 7)	4.136 4 (1.500 3)	3.216 9 (1.587 7)
家庭劳动力数量 Household labor		2.890 9 (1.195 8)	2.890 9 (1.195 8)	2.088 2 (1.234 1)
是否有老年人赡养 Whether there is elderly support	是=1；否=0 (yes=1; no=0)	0.000 0 (0.000 0)	0.000 0 (0.000 0)	0.446 6 (0.497 4)
是否有孩子抚养 Whether there is child support	是=1；否=0 (yes=1; no=0)	0.443 7 (0.497 1)	0.402 1 (0.490 6)	0.345 7 (0.475 9)
是否参加合作经济组织 Participation in cooperatives	是=1；否=0 (yes=1; no=0)	0.000 0 (0.000 0)	0.023 7 (0.152 3)	0.041 5 (0.199 6)
林地面积 Forestland area/hm²	农户林地经营面积 Area of farm households forest land management	0.671 9 (2.398 3)	2.549 5 (4.352 7)	2.524 3 (4.450 2)
林地地块数量 Forestland plots		3.121 6 (9.670 9)	3.863 6 (4.670 8)	3.698 6 (4.101 0)

表1

表2

图1

表3

表4

表5

表6

图2

表7

表8

表9

表10

表11

表

各县区样本农户经济福利及集体林地确权情况统计"

县区County	2003			2011			2019
县区County	总收入Total revenue/yuan	总消费Total consumption/ yuan	新林改Collective forestland tenure reform	总收入Total revenue/yuan	总消费Total consumption/ yuan	新林改Collective forestland tenure reform	总收入Total revenue/yuan	总消费Total consumption/ yuan	新林改Collective forestland tenure reform
山东蒙阴Mengyin， Shandong	6 468.943 2	7 231.432 3	0.000 0	19 181.938 2	9 731.314 4	0.317 1	29 382.730 5	13 210.072 9	0.317 1
山东莱州Laizhou， Shandong	7 710.002 9	8 671.645 6	0.000 0	20 065.040 3	12 842.657 5	0.050 8	24 618.378 3	13 063.376 8	0.050 8
辽宁清原Qingyuan， Liaoning	10 258.324 0	6 502.255 4	0.200 0	26 456.778 0	20 112.889 0	0.828 6	53 548.740 0	15 028.930 2	0.857 1
辽宁本溪Benxi， Liaoning	8 053.7710	5 962.244 8	0.205 1	28 099.839 8	16 476.409 2	0.923 1	52 492.255 5	19 150.896 4	0.948 7
河南舞阳Wuyang， Henan	26 570.868 0	7 778.164 2	0.000 0	20 017.862 1	9 992.686 0	0.918 4	42 629.741 3	13 765.212 5	0.918 4
河南浉河Shihe， Henan	30 117.807 2	9 574.115 9	0.000 0	21 139.408 4	10 579.845 0	0.745 1	28 471.779 0	15 494.123 3	0.745 1
四川威远Weiyuan， Sichuan	13 504.893 9	7 471.548 1	0.000 0	19 975.855 8	9 517.351 9	0.927 5	28 470.114 9	16 193.232 1	0.927 5
四川丹棱Danling， Sichuan	12 677.038 0	8 099.857 0	0.000 0	32 388.282 3	11 270.922 6	0.942 0	45 686.798 9	21 401.026 5	0.942 0
浙江德清Deqing， Zhejiang	26 215.287 6	18 631.882 6	0.016 9	47 402.043 2	42 377.552 7	0.932 2	92 160.170 5	39 041.462 3	0.932 2
浙江遂昌Suichang， Zhejiang	22 735.091 4	12 154.587 7	0.041 7	30 766.790 4	30 178.752 8	0.958 3	44 904.067 8	23 850.354 9	0.958 3
福建沙县Shaxian， Fujian	14 485.973 1	7 061.619 8	0.130 4	15 986.370 3	11 722.184 8	0.434 8	30 270.784 7	17 877.843 1	0.478 3
福建顺昌Fujian Shunchang	15 735.387 9	10 475.482 3	0.063 8	25 982.427 9	14 632.369 9	0.574 5	32 016.950 4	18 838.709 1	0.638 3
湖南平江Pingjiang， Hunan	11 195.989 0	9 718.755 7	0.000 0	26 663.366 1	14 337.338 8	0.853 7	36 337.748 1	20 820.472 4	0.878 0
湖南洪江Hongjiang， Hunan	10 384.039 5	5 827.118 3	0.000 0	20 312.380 6	9 416.835 3	0.983 1	29 052.349 6	16 669.660 2	0.983 1
江西遂川Suichuan， Jiangxi	16 383.283 4	8 531.068 6	0.037 0	19 942.040 1	10 532.721 7	0.981 5	28 880.483 0	21 761.523 9	0.981 5
江西铜鼓Tonggu， Jiangxi	11 811.875 9	12 635.730 1	0.058 8	30 541.883 7	22 178.915 5	0.911 8	33 131.050 1	26 712.739 0	0.911 8
广西环江Huanjiang， Guangxi	7 780.276 3	5 869.803 5	0.000 0	16 733.174 7	10 946.277 7	0.428 6	25 356.544 6	15 062.481 0	0.428 6
广西平果Pingguo， Guangxi	8 039.689 0	5 284.729 9	0.000 0	18 552.639 2	11 228.012 0	0.395 3	28 287.297 9	13 450.050 0	0.418 6

表

图3

表12

参考文献 0

	阿马蒂亚·森. 2002. 以自由看待发展. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社.
	Amartya S. 2002. Development as freedom. Beijing: China Renmin University Press. ［in Chinese］
	陈志刚, 曲福田. 农地产权结构与农业绩效: 一个理论框架. 学术月刊, 2006, 38 (9): 87- 92.
	Chen Z G, Qu F T. The structure of farmland property rights and agricultural performance: a theoretical framework. Academic Monthly, 2006, 38 (9): 87- 92.
	高桂珍. 2019. 陕西农户融资渠道选择对其家庭福利的影响研究. 杨凌: 西北农林科技大学.
	Gao G Z. 2019. The influence of Shaanxi farmers’ financing channels selection on their family welfare. Yangling: Northwest A & F University. ［in Chinese］
	郝春旭, 侯一蕾, 李小勇. 三明市集体林权制度改革的农村社会经济福利测度. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 12 (4): 21- 26.
	Hao C X, Hou Y L, Li X Y. Rural social and economic welfare measurement of the collective forest tenure reform in Sanming City. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Sciences), 2013, 12 (4): 21- 26.
	何文剑, 赵秋雅, 张红霄. 林权改革的增收效应: 机制讨论与经验证据. 中国农村经济, 2021, (3): 46- 67.
	He W J, Zhao Q Y, Zhang H X. Income-increasing effect of the collective forest tenure reform: mechanism discussions and empirical evidences. Chinese Rural Economy, 2021, (3): 46- 67.
	吉登艳. 2015. 新一轮集体林权制度改革对农户林地利用行为及收入的影响研究: 基于农户产权认知的视角. 南京: 南京农业大学.
	Ji D Y. 2015. Study on the impacts of the new round of collective forest tenure reform on household’s forestland use behaviors and forestry management income: from the perspective of perceived property rights. Nanjing: Nanjing Agricultural University. ［in Chinese］
	吉登艳, 马贤磊, 石晓平. 林地产权对农户林地投资行为的影响研究: 基于产权完整性与安全性: 以江西省遂川县与丰城市为例. 农业经济问题, 2015, 36 (3): 54- 61, 111.
	Ji D Y, Ma X L, Shi X P. The impact of forest property rights on forestland investments: from the perspective of property rights integrity and security: a case from Suichuan and Fengcheng of Jiangxi Province. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2015, 36 (3): 54- 61, 111.
	吉登艳, 石晓平, 仇童伟, 等. 林地产权对农户林业经营性收入的影响: 以江西省两个县(市)为例. 资源科学, 2016, 38 (8): 1609- 1620.
	Ji D Y, Shi X P, Qiu T W, et al. Impact of forestland property rights on households’ income from forestry based on analysis of two cities in Jiangxi. Resources Science, 2016, 38 (8): 1609- 1620.
	江　艇. 因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应. 中国工业经济, 2022, (5): 100- 120. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-480X.2022.05.007
	Jiang T. Mediating effects and moderating effects in causal inference. China Industrial Economics, 2022, (5): 100- 120. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-480X.2022.05.007
	李忠旭, 庄　健. 土地托管对农户家庭经济福利的影响: 基于非农就业与农业产出的中介效应. 农业技术经济, 2021, (1): 20- 31.
	Li Z X, Zhuang J. Impact of land trusteeship on the economic welfare of farmers’ families: the intermediation effect based on non-agricultural employment and agricultural output. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2021, (1): 20- 31.
	刘　璨, 刘　浩, 朱文清, 等. 城乡关系背景下中国集体林权制度变迁分析. 中国农村经济, 2023, (10): 136- 157.
	Liu C, Liu H, Zhu W Q, et al. Changes in China’s collective forestland tenure system in the context of urban-rural relations. Chinese Rural Economy, 2023, (10): 136- 157.
	刘　璨, 康子昊, 朱文清, 等. 中国集体林权制度改革: 2012年以来的新进展与40余年的典型事实分析. 林业经济, 2024, 46 (5): 5- 23.
	Liu C, Kang Z H, Zhu W Q, et al. China’s reform of collective forestland tenure: new progresses since 2012 and stylized facts over the past 40 years. Forestry Economics, 2024, 46 (5): 5- 23.
	刘　璨, 朱文清, 刘　浩, 等. 产权制度及其变迁与集体林产权制度变迁研究进展. 林业经济, 2022, 44 (2): 5- 28.
	Liu C, Zhu W Q, Liu H, et al. The research progresses of property right institutions and their changes, collective forestland tenure institutions and its changes. Forestry Economics, 2022, 44 (2): 5- 28.
	刘　浩, 王雁斌, 刘　璨. 林地细碎化、产权激励对林业生产要素配置的影响. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38 (7): 1771- 1783. doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20230709
	Liu H, Wang Y B, Liu C. The effect of forestland fragmentation and tenure incentive on the allocation of forest production input. Journal of Natural Resources, 2023, 38 (7): 1771- 1783. doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20230709
	刘小强, 徐晋涛, 王立群. 集体林权制度改革对农户收入影响的实证分析. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2011, 10 (2): 69- 75.
	Liu X Q, Xu J T, Wang L Q. Empirical analysis on influences of collective forest tenure reform on farmers’ income. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Sciences), 2011, 10 (2): 69- 75.
	骆耀峰, 刘金龙, 张大红. 基于异质性的集体林权改革林农获益差别化研究. 西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 13 (5): 109- 115, 122.
	Luo Y F, Liu J L, Zhang D H. Study on farmers’ differentiated benefit from collective forest tenure reform based on community heterogeneity. Journal of Northwest A& F University (Social Science Edition), 2013, 13 (5): 109- 115, 122.
	穆月英, 小池淳司. 我国农业补贴政策的SCGE模型构建及模拟分析. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2009, 26 (1): 3- 15, 44.
	Mu Y Y, Koike Atsushi. SCGE model construction and simulation analysis of the agricultural subsidy policy in China. Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics, 2009, 26 (1): 3- 15, 44.
	聂建亮. 2015. 社会养老保险对农村老人的福利效应研究: 基于对湖北省的调查. 武汉: 华中农业大学.
	Nie J L. 2015. Research on the welfare effects of social endowment insurance to rural elderly: based on the investigation in Hubei Province. Wuhan: Huazhong Agricultural University. ［in Chinese］
	牛坤在, 许恒周. 农地赋权与农村内部收入不平等: 基于农地流转与劳动力转移的中介作用. 中国土地科学, 2022, 36 (3): 51- 61.
	Niu K Z, Xu H Z. Farmland empowerment and rural internal income inequality: based on the intermediary role of farmland transfer and labor transfer. China Land Science, 2022, 36 (3): 51- 61.
	仇晓璐, 陈绍志, 赵　荣. 集体林权制度改革对农户收入的影响: 基于倾向得分匹配法(PSM)的实证分析. 中国农业大学学报, 2018, 23 (12): 211- 220. doi: 10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.12.24
	Qiu X L, Chen S Z, Zhao R. Effects of collective forest tenure reform on farmers’ income: an empirical analysis based on propensity score matching method. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2018, 23 (12): 211- 220. doi: 10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.12.24
	孙顶强, 卢宇桐, 田　旭. 生产性服务对中国水稻生产技术效率的影响: 基于吉、浙、湘、川4省微观调查数据的实证分析. 中国农村经济, 2016, (8): 70- 81.
	Sun D Q, Lu Y T, Tian X. The influence of productive services on the technical efficiency of rice production in China: an empirical analysis based on the micro-survey data of Jilin, Zhejiang, Hunan and Sichuan Provinces. Chinese Rural Economy, 2016, (8): 70- 81.
	王　静, 赵　凯. 宅基地退出对农户农业生产效率的影响: 基于安徽省金寨县473份农户样本. 中国土地科学, 2021, 35 (7): 71- 80, 88.
	Wang J, Zhao K. Effect of rural residential land withdrawal on farmers’ agricultural production efficiency: based on 473 rural household samples in Jinzhai County, Anhui Province. China Land Science, 2021, 35 (7): 71- 80, 88.
	魏　建, 刘　璨, 张大红. 林权改革对农户非农就业的影响及作用机制. 湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 23 (5): 29- 40.
	Wei J, Liu C, Zhang D H. The impact and mechanism of the reform of collective forestland tenure on rural households’ off-farm employment. Journal of Hunan Agricultural University (Social Sciences), 2022, 23 (5): 29- 40.
	魏　建, 刘　璨, 张大红. 林权改革与农户家庭收入: 理论线索和经验证据. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, (1): 106- 119.
	Wei J, Liu C, Zhang D H. The reform of collective forestland tenure and farmers’ income: theoretical clues and empirical evidence. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2023, (1): 106- 119.
	魏　建, 尹少华, 刘　璨. 新一轮集体林权制度改革对兼业与非兼业农户收入的影响研究. 林业经济, 2018, 40 (12): 64- 71.
	Wei J, Yin S H, Liu C. Research on the impact of the new collective forestland tenure reform on the income of part-time and non-part-time households. Forestry Economics, 2018, 40 (12): 64- 71.
	谢　屹, 温亚利. 农户林地林木转出行为影响因素的实证分析. 北京林业大学学报(社会科学版), 2009, 8 (4): 48- 54.
	Xie Y, Wen Y L. Empirical study on the influence factors of farmers’ forestland and stumpages transfer. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Sciences), 2009, 8 (4): 48- 54.
	徐晋涛, 孙　妍, 姜雪梅, 等. 我国集体林区林权制度改革模式和绩效分析. 林业经济, 2008, 30 (9): 27- 38.
	Xu J T, Sun Y, Jiang X M, et al. Collective forest tenure reform in China: analysis of pattern and performance. Forestry Economics, 2008, 30 (9): 27- 38.
	许　庆, 陆钰凤. 非农就业、土地的社会保障功能与农地流转. 中国人口科学, 2018, (5): 30- 41, 126−127.
	Xu Q, Lu Y F. Off-farm employment, social security function of land, and land transfer. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2018, (5): 30- 41, 126−127.
	杨　扬. 2018. 集体林产权对农户林地经营行为影响研究. 杨凌: 西北农林科技大学.
	Yang Y. 2018. Influence of collective forest property rights on farmers’ forestland management behavior. Yangling: Northwest A & F University. ［in Chinese］
	朱洪革, 张晓蕾, 林　红. 基于物质剥夺视角的森林依赖对相对贫困的影响研究: 来自东北国有林区1 350个职工家庭的经验证据. 林业经济, 2023, 45 (5): 30- 52.
	Zhu H G, Zhang X L, Lin H. Impact of forest dependence on relative poverty from the perspective of material deprivation: empirical evidence from 1 350 workers’ families in northeast state forest regions. Forestry Economics, 2023, 45 (5): 30- 52.
	朱文清, 张莉琴. 集体林地确权到户对林地流转的政策效果分析. 资源科学, 2018, 40 (7): 1407- 1417.
	Zhu W Q, Zhang L Q. The impact of confirming collective forest land property rights to households on the forest land circulation behavior of farmers. Resources Science, 2018, 40 (7): 1407- 1417.
	朱文清, 张莉琴. 新一轮集体林地确权对农户林业长期投入的影响. 改革, 2019, (1): 109- 121.
	Zhu W Q, Zhang L Q. The effect of new round of confirming collective forest land property rights on farmers’ long-term input in forestry. Reform, 2019, (1): 109- 121.
	Cai X Q, Lu Y, Wu M Q, et al. Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Journal of Development Economics, 2016, 123, 73- 85. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.08.003
	Hicks J R. 1939. Value and capital. Cambridge: Oxford University Press.
	Little I M D. 1957. A critique of welfare economics. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
	Little R J A, Rubin D B. 2002. Statistical analysis with missing data. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
	Liu C, Liu H, Wang S. 2017a. Has China’s new round of collective forest reforms caused an increase in the use of productive forest inputs? Land Use Policy, 64: 492−510.
	Liu C, Wang S, Liu H, et al. 2017b. Why did the 1980s’ reform of collective forestland tenure in southern China fail? Forest Policy and Economics, 83: 131−141.
	Nordhaus W D, Tobin J. 1972. ls growth obsolete? New York: Columbia University Press.
	Xie F T, Zhu S B, Cao M T, et al. Does rural labor outward migration reduce household forest investment? The experience of Jiangxi, China. Forest Policy and Economics, 2019, 101, 62- 69. doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2019.01.010
	Xu J T, Hyde W F. China’s second round of forest reforms: observations for China and implications globally. Forest Policy and Economics, 2019, 98, 19- 29. doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2018.04.007
	Yami M, Snyder K A. After all, land belongs to the state: examining the benefits of land registration for smallholders in Ethiopia. Land Degradation & Development, 2016, 27 (3): 465- 478.
	Yin R S, Yao S B, Huo X X. 2013. China’s forest tenure reform and institutional change in the new century: what has been implemented and what remains to be pursued? Land Use Policy, 30(1): 825-833.

年度 Year	年龄 Age	受教育年限 Educational year	林地面积 Forestland area	林业生产费用 Forestry production cost	林业劳动时间 Forestry labor hours	非农就业 Off-farm employment	总收入 Total revenue	总消费 Total consumption
2003	0.267 1	0.881 0	0.262 7	0.152 1	0.731 5	0.558 5	0.704 3	0.216 0
2011	0.267 1	0.523 3	0.101 7	0.929 6	0.608 2	0.234 5	0.124 5	0.550 7
2019	0.105 1	0.366 5	0.141 1	0.280 9	0.981 2	0.142 9	0.372 1	0.322 5

变量Variable	总收入模型 Total revenue model		总消费模型 Total consumption model
变量Variable	VIF	1/VIF	VIF	1/VIF
新林改Collective forestland tenure reform	1.16	0.86	1.18	0.85
非农劳动力价格Non-farm labor prices	1.27	0.79	1.41	0.71
木材价格Timber price	1.26	0.80	1.27	0.79
年龄Age	1.59	0.63	1.6	0.63
性别Gender	1.02	0.98	1.02	0.98
受教育年限Educational year	1.2	0.84	1.22	0.82
健康水平Health level	1.62	0.62	1.62	0.62
家庭成员是否干部Whether the family member is a cadre	1.07	0.93	1.08	0.93
家庭人口数量Household person	2.25	0.45	2.29	0.44
家庭劳动力数量Household labor	2.44	0.41	2.49	0.40
是否有老人赡养Whether there is elderly support	1.27	0.79	1.28	0.78
是否有小孩抚养Whether there is child support	1.18	0.85	1.19	0.84
是否参加合作社Participation in cooperatives	1.02	0.98	1.02	0.98
林地面积Forestland area	1.11	0.90	1.13	0.89
林地地块数量Forestland plots	1.07	0.93	1.09	0.92

变量Variable	总收入 Total revenue		总消费Total consumption
变量Variable	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
新林改 Collective forestland tenure reform	0.160 5^*** (0.056 4)	0.071 3^* (0.039 6)	0.155 0^** (0.075 5)	0.053 1^*** (0.012 5)
非农劳动力价格		0.017 8^***		0.037 2^***
Non-farm labor prices		(0.001 4)		(0.004 8)
木材价格		0.000 8^***		0.009 7^***
Timber price		(0.000 2)		(0.000 9)
年龄		?0.007 0^***		?0.020 2^***
Age		(0.001 7)		(0.004 8)
性别		0.197 6^***		0.032 3
Gender		(0.074 6)		(0.206 5)
受教育年限		0.037 9^***		0.011 1
Educational year		(0.005 9)		(0.015 3)
健康水平		0.005 1		0.173 0
Health level		(0.063 1)		(0.167 4)
家庭成员是否干部 Whether the family member is a cadre		0.092 5^*** (0.034 4)		0.253 1^*** (0.089 1)
家庭人口数量		0.106 5^***		0.254 9^***
Household person		(0.014 4)		(0.038 1)
家庭劳动力数量		0.158 3^***		0.068 9
Household labor		(0.018 5)		(0.051 4)
是否有老人赡养 Whether there is elderly support		?0.057 3 (0.048 9)		?0.172 4 (0.134 9)
是否有小孩抚养		?0.231 6^***		?1.030 0^***
Whether there is child support		(0.032 9)		(0.089 3)
是否参加合作社		0.007 0		0.001 4
Participation in cooperatives		(0.101 4)		(0.264 0)
林地面积		0.000 6^***		0.003 1
Forestland area		(0.000 2)		(0.003 2)
林地地块数量		?0.003 4^*		?0.006 2
Forestland plots		(0.001 9)		(0.003 9)
年度固定效应 Annual fixed effects	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
常数项	9.141 5^***	6.883 5^***	7.811 0^***	0.163 7
Constant	(0.058 6)	(0.164 0)	(0.104 9)	(0.643 6)
N	12 068	12 068	12 068	12 068
R²	0.046	0.211	0.175	0.465

变量Variable	替换变量 Replacement variables		剔除试点省份 Excluding pilot provinces		排除相关政策干扰 Removing relevant policy interference
变量Variable	总收入 Total revenue	总消费 Total consumption	总收入 Total revenue	总消费 Total consumption	总收入 Total revenue	总消费 Total consumption
新林改	0.030 8^***	0.023 8^*	0.019 0^***	0.017 9^***	0.049 9^*	0.036 6^***
Collective forestland tenure reform	(0.008 0)	(0.014 3)	(0.002 6)	(0.005 7)	(0.028 5)	(0.128 3)
控制变量 Control variables	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
年度固定效应 Annual fixed effects	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
常数项	7.871 6^***	4.196 3^***	7.375 4^***	4.419 1^***	7.243 2^***	4.078 0^***
Constant	(0.212 9)	(0.529 2)	(0.127 3)	(0.366 7)	(0.135 6)	(0.647 6)
N	12 068	12 068	5 060	5 060	12 068	12 068
R²	0.301	0.289	0.234	0.361	0.204	0.685

变量 Variable	（1）	（2）	（3）
变量 Variable	林业生产费用 Forestry production cost	林业劳动时间 Forestry labor time	非农就业 Off-farm employment
新林改	0.021 5^***	0.018 2^***	0.057 9^**
Collective forestland tenure reform	(0.001 5)	(0.002 0)	(0.029 1)
控制变量 Control variables	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
年度固定效应 Annual fixed effects	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制 Control
常数项	?10.930 0^***	?5.521 1^***	?9.666 4^***
Constant	(0.931 0)	(0.713 5)	(1.351 4)
N	12 068	12 068	12 068
R²	0.094	0.142	0.134