数林融合对城乡收入差距的影响及其作用机制——基于浙江省的实证分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250032

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 检验浙江省11个地级市数字经济与林业产业融合（简称“数林融合”）发展水平对城乡收入差距的影响及其作用机制，为我国林业高质量发展和全体人民共同富裕提供科学依据。方法: 基于2015—2022年市级面板数据，采用固定效应模型和中介效应模型实证检验数林融合发展对浙江省城乡居民收入差距的影响及其作用机制。结果: 1）基准回归结果表明，数林融合发展对城乡收入差距的影响呈先扩大后缩小的“倒U型”变化趋势，且结果稳健；2）机制研究结果表明，数林融合通过就业和收入效应影响城乡居民收入差距；3）异质性分析结果表明，数林融合在城乡收入差距小、数字普惠金融发展水平高和城市规模大的地区作用效果更显著。结论: 2015—2022年浙江省数林融合发展对城乡收入差距的影响呈现先扩大后减小的趋势且存在区域异质性，通过就业效应和收入效应两种路径影响城乡收入差距。因此，浙江省应持续加强政策引导和资源配置，推动数字经济与林业产业深度融合，逐步缩小城乡收入差距。

关键词: 数字经济, 林业产业, 数林融合发展, 浙江省

Abstract:

Objective: The study aims to examine the impacts of the integration of digital economy and forestry industry (referred to as “Digital-Forestry Integration”) development level on the urban-rural income gap in 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province, and the mechanisms, so as to provide scientific basis for the high-quality development of forestry industry and the common prosperity of all people in China. Method: Based on the panel data from 2015 to 2022 at the city level, this study empirically examines the impacts of Digital-Forestry Integration on the urban-rural income gap in Zhejiang Province using fixed effect models and mediation effect models. Result: 1) The baseline regression results show that the impacts of Digital-Forestry Integration on the urban-rural income gap shows an “inverted U-shaped” trend, initially widening and then narrowing, and the results are robust; 2) The results of the mechanisms analysis indicate that Digital-Forestry Integration affects the urban-rural income gap through employment and income effects; 3) The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of Digital-Forestry Integration on the urban-rural income gap is more significant in areas with smaller income gaps, higher development levels of digital inclusive finance, and larger urban scales. Conclusion: From 2015 to 2022, the impacts of Digital-Forestry Integration development on urban-rural income gap in Zhejiang Province presents an initial expansion and then a reduction trend with regional heterogeneity observed and it influences the urban-rural income gap through employment effects and the income effects. Therefore, Zhejiang Province should continue to strengthen policy guidance and resource allocation, promote the deep integration of digital economy and forestry industry, and gradually narrow the urban-rural income gap.

Key words: digital economy, forestry industry, digital-forestry integration development, Zhejiang Province

中图分类号:

S7-9
F603

翟郡,陈燕,曾杰杰,汤灿,孔凡斌. 数林融合对城乡收入差距的影响及其作用机制——基于浙江省的实证分析[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(9): 223-235.

Jun Zhai,Yan Chen,Jiejie Zeng,Can Tang,Fanbin Kong. Impacts of Integrated Development Level of Digital Economy and Forestry Industry on the Urban-Rural Income Gap and Its Mechanisms: Empirical Evidence from Zhejiang Province[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(9): 223-235.

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一级指标Primary indicator	二级指标Secondary indicator	三级指标Third level indicator
数字经济发展水平 Development level of digital economy	数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure	农村居民每百户计算机数量 Computer number per 100 households in rural areas
	数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure	农村居民每百户移动电话数量 Mobile phone number per 100 households in rural areas
	数字业务规模 Digital business scale	邮电业务总收入 Total revenue from postal and telecommunications business
	数字业务规模 Digital business scale	信息传输、软件和技术服务业人员占私营和非私营单位总就业人员的比例 Proportion of personnel in the information transmission， software， and technology service industries to the total employment of private and non-private units
	数字技术创新 Digital technology innovation	地方财政科学技术支出占财政预算的比例 Proportion of local fiscal science and technology expenditure to the fiscal budget
	数字技术创新 Digital technology innovation	科学研究和技术服务业人员占私营和非私营单位总就业人员的比例 Proportion of scientific research and technology service industry personnel to the total employment of private and non-private units
林业产业发展水平 The level of development of the forestry industry	规模Scale	林业产业总产值 Total output value of forestry industry
	规模Scale	第一产业固定资产总额 Total fixed assets of the primary industry
	结构Structure	林业总产值占农林牧渔总产值的比例 Proportion of total forestry output value to total agricultural， forestry， animal husbandry， and fishery output value
	结构Structure	第一产业占固定资产的比例 Proportion of the primary industry to fixed assets
	效率Efficiency	林业总产值同比上年增长比例 Growth rate of total forestry output year-on-year
	效率Efficiency	第一产业固定资产投资同比上年增长比例 Growth rate of fixed assets investment in the primary industry year-on-year

变量 Variables	样本量 Sample size	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Minimum value	最大值 Maximum value
城乡收入差距 Urban-rural income gap	88	0.044 6	0.015 6	0.021 0	0.075 2
数林融合发展水平 Development level of digital-forestry integration	88	0.416 3	0.085 3	0.209 8	0.615 2
林业从业人员数（万人） Number of people employed in forestry（ten thousand people）	88	0.004 3	0.006 0	0.000 1	0.028 6
旅游业收入水平 Level of tourism income	88	0.255 1	0.155 8	0.048 6	0.768 9
工业发展水平 Industrial development level	88	0.440 7	0.060 2	0.299 3	0.552 0
第三产业发展水平 Development level of tertiary industry	88	0.512 0	0.060 9	0.408 7	0.681 9
乡村人口（万人） Rural population(ten thousand people)	88	5.305 4	0.637 0	3.477 8	6.230 7
对外贸易 Foreign trade	88	0.314 7	0.351 0	0.026 3	1.733 4
造林面积 Afforestation area/10⁴hm²	88	7.733 0	1.362 2	3.951 2	10.479 9
政府财政支出规模 Scale of government expenditure	88	0.166 8	0.063 5	0.092 5	0.356 6
产业结构 Industrial structure	88	1.205 2	0.335 7	0.773 1	2.275 3

变量Variables	模型（Ⅰ） Model （Ⅰ）	模型（Ⅱ） Model（Ⅱ）
数林融合发展水平	0.021 2**	0.092 1**
Development level of digital-forestry integration	（2.14）	（2.06）
数林融合发展水平的二次项		?0.077 4*
The square term of development level of digital-forestry integration		（?1.74）
工业发展水平	?0.128 4**	?0.085 5
Industrial development level	（?2.12）	（?1.31）
第三产业发展水平	?0.044 6	?0.039 6
Development level of tertiary industry	（?0.66）	（?0.66）
对外贸易	?0.006 9***	?0.007 1***
Foreign trade	（?5.28）	（?5.45）
产业结构	?0.024 3***	?0.018 3**
Industrial structure	（?3.36）	（?2.42）
乡村人口	0.021 5**	0.020 8**
Rural population	（2.61）	（2.60）
政府财政支出规模	0.001 7	0.003 8
Scale of government expenditure	（0.07）	（0.15）
造林面积	0.000 0	0.000 0
Afforestation area	（0.22）	（0.17）
常数项	0.032 2	-0.008 7
Constant	（0.46）	（-0.13）
城市固定效应 City fixed effects	是 YES	是 YES
R²	0.973 4	0.974 9

变量Variables	时间趋势系数Time trend coefficient
Integrity*Year₂₀₁₅	0.016 3*
	（1.95）
Integrity*Year₂₀₁₆	?0.000 8
	（?0.32）
Integrity*Year₂₀₁₇	?0.001 7
	（?0.73）
Integrity*Year₂₀₁₈	?0.003 1
	（?1.48）
Integrity*Year₂₀₁₉	?0.003 1
	（?0.90）
Integrity*Year₂₀₂₀	?0.009 9***
	（?3.12）
Integrity*Year₂₀₂₁	?0.015 6***
	（?4.34）
Integrity*Year₂₀₂₂	?0.022 1***
	（?5.69）
常数项	?0.009 1
Constant	（?0.19）
城市固定效应 City fixed effects	是 YES
控制变量 Control variables	是 YES
R²	0.985 9

变量Variables	模型（Ⅰ） Model Ⅰ	模型（Ⅱ） Model Ⅱ	模型（Ⅲ） Model Ⅲ	模型（Ⅳ） Model Ⅳ	模型（Ⅴ） Model Ⅴ	模型（Ⅵ） Model Ⅵ
数林融合发展水平	0.055*	?0.060	0.056*	0.050	0.114***	?0.038
Development level of digital-forestry integration	（2.02）	（?0.28）	（1.74）	（1.68）	（3.14）	（?0.74）
数林融合发展水平的二次项	?0.058**	0.128	?0.064**	?0.043	?0.108***	0.118
The square term of development level of digital-forestry integration	（?2.14）	（0.51）	（?2.28）	（?1.47）	（?3.21）	（1.61）
常数项	?0.014	?0.082	0.033	?0.073	?0.190**	0.259***
Constant	（?0.22）	（?0.60）	（0.12）	（?1.28）	（?.36）	（3.98）
城市固定效应 City fixed effects	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES
控制变量 Control variables	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES	是 YES
R²	0.921	0.930	0.978	0.998	0.979	0.991