新一轮集体林权制度改革对中国木质林产品出口边际增长的影响分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240475

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 探究新一轮集体林权制度改革（简称“新林改”）对中国木质林产品出口边际增长的作用机制，为深化集体林权改革和推动林产品贸易高质量发展提供科学依据。方法: 基于2000—2022年中国海关和联合国商贸数据库的6位码双边数据，采用三元边际分解方法分析木质林产品出口增长，构建年份—省份—目的国三维面板数据结构。以新林改作为准自然试验，以制造业为对照组，应用双重机器学习模型分析新林改对木质林产品出口边际增长的影响。结果: 1）国产材供给增长会对进口材形成替代效应，且进口材的需求弹性明显高于国内木材。2）新林改通过产权激励和配套改革激励，对木质林产品出口份额、广度边际和数量边际具有显著正向影响，对价格边际具有显著负向影响。3）新林改通过增加国内木材供给，并通过国产材替代进口材的渠道，可推动出口边际增长。4）在异质性方面，新林改对资本技术密集型木质林产品出口边际增长的促进效应高于劳动密集型产品，且对南方林区的影响程度大于非南方林区。结论: 新林改对林业产业具有显著激励作用，可有效推动木质林产品出口边际增长，减少对外部木材资源的依赖，增强国家木材安全。未来应加强政府顶层设计，依托新林改统筹自然资源管理、产业政策和贸易政策，进一步推动林业高质量发展。

关键词: 新一轮集体林权制度改革, 木质林产品, 出口三元边际, 集体林, 双重机器学习

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to investigate the mechanisms through which the new round of collective forest tenure reform (hereinafter referred to as“new forest reform”) affects the marginal growth of China’s wood-based forest product exports, thereby providing scientific evidence for deepening forest tenure reform and promoting the high-quality development of forest product trade. Method: Drawing on six-digit bilateral trade data from China Customs and the United Nations Trade Database from 2000 to 2022, this study employs a export ternary margins decomposition method to analyze export growth and constructs a year-province-destination country panel dataset. Taking the new forest reform as a quasi-natural experiment and using manufacturing as a control group, the study applies a double machine (DML) approach to evaluate the impact of the reform on the marginal growth of wood-based forest product exports. Result: 1) An increase in domestic timber supply substitutes for imported timber, with demand for imported timber being significantly more elastic than for domestic timber. 2) The new forest reform significantly increases the export share, extensive margin, and quantity margin of wood-based forest products, while significantly reducing the price margin. 3) The reform promotes marginal export growth by enhancing domestic timber supply and enabling domestic timber supply and enabling substitution of imports with domestic timber. 4) In terms of heterogeneity, the reform has a stronger positive effect on capital- and technology-intensive wood-based product exports compared to labor-intensive products, and its impact is more pronounced in southern forest regions than in non-southern regions. Conclusion: The new forest reform has a significant incentivizing effect on the forestry industry, effectively driving the marginal growth of wood-based forest product exports, reducing dependence on external timber resources, and strengthening national timber security. In the future, it is essential to enhance top-level design, leveraging the new forest reform to better coordinate natural resource management, industrial policies, and trade policies, thereby advancing the high-quality development of forestry.

Key words: new round of collective forest tenure reform, wood forest products, export ternary margins, collective forest, double machine learning

中图分类号:

S7-9
F326.20

施正煌,侯方淼,张浩昆,黄国星. 新一轮集体林权制度改革对中国木质林产品出口边际增长的影响分析[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(9): 211-222.

Zhenghuang Shi,fangmiao Hou,Haokun Zhang,Guoxing Huang. Analysis of the Impact of the New Round of Collective Forest Tenure Reform on the Growth of Export Margins of China’s Wood-Based Forest Product[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(9): 211-222.

图/表 8

图1

表1

描述性统计"

变量Variable	样本量 Sample size	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Min.	最大值 Max.
新林改New forest reform	119 341	0.366	0.482	0.000	1.000
确权率Confirmation rate	31 517	90.717	16.052	4.717	100
份额Share	119 341	0.006	0.016	0.000	0.640
广度边际Extensive margin	119 341	0.200	0.170	0.000	0.987
数量边际Quantity margin	119 341	0.018	0.046	0.000	0.999
价格边际Price margin	119 341	3.612	10.736	0.010	1 307.016
进口国GDP Importing country’s GDP/10⁸ $	119 341	5 794.448	19 320.35	1.040	257 000.000
进口国人口Importing country’s population/10⁴ people	119 341	4 806.440	13 306.160	1.779	142 862.766
进口国对外开放度Importing country’s openness (%)	119 341	66.896	40.611	11.147	420.682
进口国森林覆盖率Importing country’s forest coverage rate (%)	119 341	31.806	22.660	0.008	98.313
进口国汇率Exchange rate	119 341	172.430	1 183.379	0.007	42 000.000
省份GDP Province’s GDP/10⁸ yuan	119 341	26 350.560	23 626.200	139.200	129118.6
省份对外开放度 Province’s openness (%)	119 341	41.620	38.941	0.008	160.995
省份林业（制造业）产值 Province’s forestry (no forestry) output value/10⁸ yuan	119 341	9 090.725	8 747.622	6.960	48 593.600
省份公路里程Province’s highway mileage/km	119 341	13.948	8.386	0.610	39.890
省份人口Province’s population/10⁴ people	119 341	5 226.525	2 877.615	264.000	12 684.000
国产材产量Domestic timber production/10⁴ m³	111 826	290.380	435.575	0.040	3 602.000
进口材数量External wood import volume/10⁴ m³	111 454	192.959	252.759	0.000	1 324.584
国产材平均价格Average price of domestic timber/ (yuan·m^?3)	97 049	708.669	198.614	9.000	1 500.000
进口材平均价格Average price of foreign timber/10⁸ yuan	109 002	1 583.403	1 165.242	318.786	9 996.251
林业投资额Forestry investment/10⁸ yuan	115 068	0.534	0.785	0.000	8.046
木材需求量Wood demand/10⁴ m³	118 324	453.734	485.558	0.060	3 666.118
进口材依赖程度Degree of dependence on external wood resources	118 324	0.377	0.357	0.000	1.000

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

表7

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变量 Variable	国产材产量 Domestic timber production	进口材数量 Import timber quantity	未加入控制变量二次方 Without inclusion of squared terms of control variables				加入控制变量二次方 With inclusion of squared terms of control variables
变量 Variable	国产材产量 Domestic timber production	进口材数量 Import timber quantity	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
进口材价格 Import timber price	0.026^***	?1.511^***
进口材价格 Import timber price	（0.002）	（0.008）
国内木材价格 Domestic timber price	?0.130^***	0.434^***
国内木材价格 Domestic timber price	（0.004）	（0.021）
新林改 New forest reform			0.233^***	0.123^***	0.155^***	?0.041^***	0.220^***	0.133^***	0.134^***	?0.040^***
新林改 New forest reform			（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.015）	（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.015）
控制变量 Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定 Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	90 547	90 611	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341

变量 Variable	重设分割比例Reset the segmentation ratio				多维固定效应模型Multidimensional fixed effects model
变量 Variable	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
新林改 New forest reform	0.220^***	0.133^***	0.135^***	?0.041^***	0.232^***	0.136^***	0.132^***	?0.036^**
新林改 New forest reform	（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.015）	（0.022）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.014）
控制变量Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方 Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341

变量 Variable	调整研究样本Adjustment of research samples				更换被解释变量Replacement of the explained variable
变量 Variable	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
新林改 New forest reform	0.171^***	0.099^***	0.115^***	?0.050^***
新林改 New forest reform	（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.025）	（0.015）
确权率Confirmation rate					0.308^***	0.061^**	0.216^***	?0.038^**
确权率Confirmation rate					（0.022）	（0.013）	（0.028）	（0.016）
控制变量Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方 Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	113746	113746	113746	113746	30281	30281	30281	30281

变量 Variable	林业投资额 Forestry investment	国产材产量 Domestic timber production	进口材依赖程度 Degree of dependence on external wood resources
新林改 New forest reform	0.039^***	0.270^***	?0.104^***
新林改 New forest reform	（0.009）	（0.007）	（0.002）
控制变量 Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	115 068	110 826	118 324

变量 Variable	南方林区Southern forest region				非南方林区Non-southern forest region
变量 Variable	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
新林改 New forest reform	0.265^***	0.127^***	0.165^***	?0.046^**	0.178^***	0.155^***	0.039	?0.158
新林改 New forest reform	（0.038）	（0.023）	（0.041）	（0.020）	（0.027）	（0.015）	（0.023）	（0.037）
控制变量一次项 Control variables a term	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方 Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	45 595	45 595	45 595	45 595	73 746	73 746	73 746	73 746