三北防护林体系建设工程区宜林潜力

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210518

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 评估三北防护林体系建设工程区未来宜林性潜力，预测未来三北地区潜在可造林面积及其空间分布特征，为国家建设绿色"一带一路"、保护三北地区生态和因地制宜建设防护林提供理论参考。方法: 本研究以土壤类型、土地利用类型、干燥度、海拔及坡度5个指标建立评估体系，以林木生长所需条件确定指标的划分阈值，采用极限条件法对指标进行划分。通过地理信息系统（Arc-Gis）空间分析功能建立适宜性评估模型，依次对三北防护林体系建设工程区宜林性潜力进行单指标评估，分析工程区内可造林区域的分布特征。在单个指标评估的基础上，对工程区宜林性潜力进行综合评估。同时，运用最大熵模型对工程区宜林区域进行预测，将模型结果与上述5个指标的综合评估结果进行对比分析。结果: 在单因子评估结果中，工程区内宜林性最大的限制因素为干燥度。在综合指标评估结果中，未来可造林区域面积为58.46万km²，占工程区总面积的17.52%，其集中分布在工程区西北部、东部及东南部区域。最大熵模型的模型精度高于0.8，达到良好水平，对适生区分布概率贡献率最大的环境因子是土地利用类型。模型的宜林性评估结果去除现有森林后，三北林业工程区未来乔木适生区面积为110.94万km²，灌木适生区面积为144.11万km²，分别占工程区面积的33.24%和43.19%。结论: 三北防护林体系建设工程区内可造林区域分布在工程区西北部的天山山脉、阿尔泰山脉和准噶尔盆地边缘、内蒙古高原以东地区和鄂尔多斯高原以南地区。西部盆地边缘宜林区分布形态受地形和冰雪融水影响呈零星分布的条带状；东部和南部地区受耕地和草地影响，宜林区域分布破碎零散。整体上，工程区东部地区宜林区域分布主要受农牧业用地影响，中部地区主要受干燥度制约，西部地区则主要受干燥度和海拔影响。

关键词: 适宜性评估模型, 三北地区, 防护林, 最大熵模型

Abstract:

Objective: This study was designed to analyze afforestation potential of the areas where implements the Three-North Shelter-belt Forest Program (TNSP). Potential areas available for afforestation and their spatial distribution will be obtained, aiming to provide a theoretical basis for building green "Belt and Road", ecological protection in the Three-North Region and the construction of shelter-belt forests consistent with local conditions. Method: A suitability evaluation model was established with 5 indicators, including soil type, land use type, aridity, altitude and slope degree. Indicator's threshold was determined based on conditions required for tree growth and divided by limit condition method. Arc-Gis Analyst Tools were applied to evaluate the afforestation potential with every single indicators, and the spatial distribution of potential areas available for afforestation. Based on the single indicators assessments, an integrated assessment was carried out to obtain future afforestation potential. Meanwhile, the maximum entropy model was applied to predict areas suitable for afforestation in the region of implementing TNSP, which will be compared with the integrated assessment. Result: The single-factor assessments showed that the maximum limiting factor was the aridity. According to the integrated assessment, the area suitable for afforestation may reach 584 600 km², accounting for 17.52% of the total land area. The afforestation area will be concentrated in the northwest, east and southeast of the TNSP region. The accuracy of the maximum entropy model is higher than 0.8, at a good level. It shows that the probability of being suitable afforestation area is mostly contributed by Land Use Type. By removing the existing forests from the model assessment, the area suitable for future arbor forests is 1 109 400 km² while the area for shrub forests is 1 441 100 km², covering 33.24% and 43.19% of the total area of TNSP, respectively. Conclusion: The suitable afforestation area is concentrated in the Tianshan, Altay Mountains and the Junggar Basin in the northwest, and the area to the east of the Inner Mongolia and Ordos Plateau. The distribution pattern of suitable afforestation area on the edge of basin is strip-shaped by topography and the melting snow and ice. Affected by the farmland and pasture, the suitable afforestation area is fragmented in the east and south. Overall, the distribution of suitable afforestation area is mainly affected by agriculture and pasture in the east, by the aridity in the central and by aridity and altitudes in the west.

Key words: suitability assessment model, three-north region, shelter-belt forest, maximum entropy models

中图分类号:

S757

张丹妮,陈西雅,臧传富. 三北防护林体系建设工程区宜林潜力[J]. 林业科学, 2021, 57(5): 184-194.

Danni Zhang,Xiya Chen,Chuanfu Zang. Potential for Afforestation in the Three-North Region Where Implements Shelter-Belt Forest Program[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(5): 184-194.

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土纲 Order of soil	宜林性 Suitability of afforestation	不宜林原因 Reasons	量化 Quantification
淋溶土 Luvisols	是 Yes	—	1
半淋溶土 Semi-luvisols	是 Yes	—	1
钙层土 Pedocal	是 Yes	—	1
干旱土 Xerosol	是 Yes	—	1
初育土 Primary soil	是 Yes	—	1
半水成土 Semi-hydromorphic soil	是 Yes	—	1
水成土 Hydromorphic soil	是 Yes	—	1
盐碱土 Saline-alkali soil	否 No	造林效益低(张川红等，2002) Low afforestation benefit(Zhang et al.，2002)	0
人为土 Anthrosol	是 Yes	—	1
高山土 High mountain soil	否 No	热量不足(高以信，1990) Insufficient heat(Gao, 1990)	0
西北盐壳 Salt crust	否 No	造林效益低(张川红等，2002) Low afforestation benefit(Zhang et al.，2002)	0

土地利用类型 Land use type	宜林性 Suitability of afforestation	不宜林原因 Reasons	量化 Quantification
水田 Paddy field	否 No	我国对基本农田实行特殊保护 Special protection for basic farmland	0
旱地 Dry farm	是 Yes	—	1
有林地 Woodland	否 No	已有林地 Existing forest	0
灌木林 Shrub	是 Yes	—	1
疏林地 Sparse woodland	是 Yes	—	1
其他林地 Other woodland	是 Yes	—	1
高覆盖度草地 High coverage grass	否 No	我国对基本草原实行特殊保护 Special protection for basic grassland	0
中覆盖度草地 Medium coverage grass	是 Yes	—	1
低覆盖度草地 Low coverage grass	是 Yes	—	1
河渠 River and channel	否 No	水体 Water	0
湖泊 Lake	否 No	水体 Water	0
水库坑塘 Reservoir and pond	否 No	水体 Water	0
永久性冰川雪地 Permanent glacier and snow	否 No	常年被冰川和积雪所覆盖 Covered by glaciers and snow	0
滩地 Shoal	是 Yes	—	1
沼泽地 Wetlands	是 Yes	—	1
城镇用地 Urban land	否 No	聚落生态系统 Settlement ecosystem	0
农村居民点 Rural settlement	否 No	聚落生态系统 Settlement ecosystem	0
其他建设用地 Other construction land	否 No	聚落生态系统 Settlement ecosystem	0
沙地 Sandy land	是 Yes	—	1
戈壁 Gobi	是 Yes	—	1
盐碱地 Saline-alkali land	是 Yes	—	1
裸土地 Bare land	是 Yes	—	1
裸岩石质地 Bare rock land	否 No	土壤厚度不足 Insufficient soil thickness	0
其他 Other unused land	否 No	分布地气候恶劣 Harsh climate	0

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