提升还是拖累？中国木材产业全球价值链地位跃迁的出口隐含碳效应

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250280

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 明确中国木材产业全球价值链地位跃迁的出口隐含碳效应是提升还是拖累，为平衡产业升级与碳中和目标提供科学依据，助力中国在全球绿色价值链重构中占据战略主动。方法: 基于2007—2021年中国30个贸易伙伴国面板数据，构建多维度指标评估全球价值链地位和贸易隐含碳强度，采用固定效应模型、机制检验模型等实证检验木材产业全球价值链地位与出口贸易隐含碳排放之间的关系及其作用机制。结果: 中国木材产业全球价值链地位提升能够显著抑制出口贸易隐含碳排放强度，规模、结构、技术水平是减排关键路径，经过稳健型检验和内生性处理，这一结论仍然成立，且存在显著区域异质性，发达国家和贸易小国抑制性更强。结论: 中国木材产业全球价值链地位提升是抑制其出口贸易隐含碳排放强度的有效途径，应努力提高中国木材产业全球价值链地位，大力发挥规模效应、结构优化与技术升级的协同作用。

关键词: 木材产业, 全球价值链地位, 出口贸易隐含碳, 贸易增加值分解法

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to clarify whether the effect of embodied carbon in exports associated with upgrading global value chain (GVC) status is a booster or a drag, providing a scientific basis for balancing industrial upgrading and carbon neutrality goals, and helping China in taking strategic initiative in the global green value chain reconstruction. Method: Based on panel data from 30 trading partner countries of China from 2007 to 2021, multidimensional indicators were constructed to assess GVC status and embodied carbon intensity in trade. Fixed-effects models and mechanism testing models were employed to empirically examine the relationship between the GVC status of the timber industry and embodied carbon emissions in export trade, and the underlying mechanisms. Result: The upgrading of China’s timber industry’s in GVC status significantly inhibits the intensity of embodied carbon emissions in export trade. Scale, structure, and technological level are key pathways for emission reduction. After a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments, this conclusion remains valid, with significant regional heterogeneity observed. The inhibitory effect is stronger in developed nations and smaller trading partners. Conclusion: The upgrading of China’s timber industry in the GVC status can effectively inhibit the embodied carbon emission intensity of export trade. Therefore, efforts should be made to enhance the GVC status of China’s timber industry and vigorously exert the synergistic role of scale effect, structural optimization, and technological upgrading.

Key words: timber industry, global value chain status, embodied carbon emissions in export trade, trade value-added decomposition method

中图分类号:

S7-9
F306.2

熊立春,商敏欣,侯柘,王凤婷. 提升还是拖累？中国木材产业全球价值链地位跃迁的出口隐含碳效应[J]. 林业科学, 2026, 62(4): 206-216.

Lichun Xiong,Minxin Shang,Zhe Hou,Fengting Wang. Booster or Drag? The Export Embodied Carbon Effect of Position Upgrading in the Global Value Chain of China’s Wood Industry[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(4): 206-216.

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项目Item	变量Variable	符号Symbol	数据来源Data sources
被解释变量 Dependent variable	贸易隐含碳排放 Embodied carbon emissions from trade/ [（t·（10⁶$）^?1]	CIE	EORA数据库EORA database
解释变量 Explanatory variable	相对全球价值链分工地位 Relative position in the global value chain	$ \text{GVCPsdid} $	亚洲开发银行数据库 Asian Development Bank database
控制变量 Control variable	出口规模Export scale/$	ln export	亚洲开发银行数据库 Asian Development Bank database
	人口规模Population size	pop	世界银行World Bank
	人均国内生产总值 Per capita gross domestic product/$	pgdp	世界银行World Bank
	研发支出R&D expenditure (%)	rd	世界银行World Bank
	外商直接投资Foreign direct investment/10⁴$	fdi	世界银行World Bank
	森林租金Forest rent (%)	rent	世界银行World Bank
	地理距离Geographic distance/km	dist	CEPII数据库CEPII database
	政策虚拟变量Policy dummy variable	im	各国政策文件Policy documents of various countries
机制变量 Mechanism variable	规模效应Scale effect	gm	世界银行World Bank
	技术效应Technical effects	js	CEPII数据库CEPII database
	结构效应Structure effect	jg	亚洲开发银行数据库Asian Development Bank database

变量 Variable	符号 Symbol	样本量 Sample size	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Min.	最大值 Max.
贸易隐含碳强度Trade embodied carbon intensity	CIE	450	908.3	1 725	25.61	16 391
相对全球价值链分工地位 Relative position in the global value chain	$ \text{GVCPsdid} $	450	3.917	11.88	?49.61	36.76
出口规模Export scale	ln export	450	7.650	1.528	3.802	11.45
人均国内生产总值Per capita gross domestic product	pgdp	450	1.396e+06	5.712e+06	8 415	4.020e+07
外商直接投资Foreign direct investment	fdi	450	2.815e+10	6.348e+10	?8.334e+10	5.114e+11
研发支出R&D expenditure	rd	450	1.609	0.997	0.284	4.930
人口规模Population size	pop	450	8.801e+10	2.374e+11	4.067e+08	1.408e+12
森林租金Forest rent	rent	450	0.195	0.251	0	1.294
地理距离Geographic distance	dist	450	552 807	270 181	39 913	1.781e+06
政策虚拟变量Policy dummy variable	im	450	0.207	0.405	0	1
规模效应Scale effect	gm	450	2.362e+12	3.089e+13	?1.815e+14	1.645e+14
结构效应Structure effect	jg	450	1.185	0.172	1.004	2.522
技术效应Technical effects	js	450	86 293	238 132	158.0	2.121e+06

检验Test	变量Variable	VIF	1/VIF
共线性检验 Collinearity test	相对全球价值链分工地位Relative position in the global value chain (GVCPsdid)	1.72	0.579 942
	出口规模Export scale (ln export)	2.56	0.390 522
	贸易伙伴国人均GDP Per capita GDP of trading partner countries (pgdp)	1.54	0.650 966
	外商直接投资Foreign direct investment (fdi)	1.46	0.684 574
	研发支出R&D expenditure (rd)	2.55	0.391 664
	人口规模Population size (pop)	1.39	0.720 773
	森林租金Forest rent (rent)	1.15	0.873 174
	地理距离Geographic distance (dist)	1.47	0.681 528
	政策虚拟变量Policy dummy variable (im)	1.22	0.817 742
	Mean VIF	1.67
F检验 F test	F(9, 440)	358.62
F检验 F test	Prob > F	0.000 0
Breusch-Pagan检验 Breusch-Pagan test	chi2 (1)	1 514.78
Breusch-Pagan检验 Breusch-Pagan test	Prob > chi2	0.000 0
Hausman检验 Hausman test	chi2 (5)	46.57
Hausman检验 Hausman test	Prob > chi2	0.000

变量 Variable	被解释变量：贸易隐含碳强度 Dependent variable: trade embodied carbon intensity
相对全球价值链分工地位 Relative position in the global value chain (GVCPsdid)	?11.276^* (6.066)
出口规模Export scale (ln export)	?1 089.505^*** (396.950)
贸易伙伴国人均GDP Per capita GDP of trading partner countries (pgdp)	?0.000^** (0.000)
外商直接投资 Foreign direct investment (fdi)	0.000 (0.000)
研发支出R&D expenditure (rd)	248.757^** (114.818)
人口规模Population size (pop)	0.000^*** (0.000)
森林租金Forest rent (rent)	92.037 (352.490)
地理距离 Geographic distance (dist)	0.001 (0.001)
政策虚拟变量 Policy dummy variable (im)	?172.860 (391.428)
个体固定效应Individual fixed effects	是Yes
时间固定效应Time fixed effect	是Yes
常数项 Constant	8 552.683^*** (3 016.985)
观测值 Observations	450
R²	0.945 9

变量 Variable	（1）缩尾处理 Winsorize	（2）更换时间区间 Change time interval
相对全球价值链分工地位Relative position in the global value chain (GVCPsdid)	?11.276^* (6.066)	?12.100^* (6.809)
出口规模Export scale (ln export)	?1 089.505^*** (396.950)	?1 166.394^*** (441.171)
贸易伙伴国人均GDP Per capita GDP of trading partner countries (pgdp)	?0.000^** (0.000)	?0.000^* (0.000)
外商直接投资Foreign direct investment (fdi)	0.000 (0.000)	0.000 (0.000)
研发支出R&D expenditure (rd)	248.757^** (114.818)	257.904^** (119.321)
人口规模Population size (pop)	0.000^*** (0.000)	0.000^*** (0.000)
森林租金Forest rent (rent)	92.037 (352.490)	56.516 (396.041)
地理距离Geographic distance (dist)	0.001 (0.001)	0.001 (0.001)
政策虚拟变量Policy dummy variable (im)	?172.860 (391.428)	?277.536 (486.446)
个体固定效应Individual fixed effects	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应Time fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes
常数项 Constant	8 552.683^*** (3 016.985)	9 177.551^*** (3 373.902)
观测值 Observations	450	420
R²	0.945 9	0.943 6