昆嵛山区欲植赤松林地赤枯病病基指数预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20201210

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 通过构建赤松赤枯病病基指数立地因子评价体系，定量预测欲植林地潜在遭受赤枯病原菌侵染程度的等级，以避免在赤枯病潜在严重危害的林地上种植赤松。方法: 基于赤松赤枯病病基指数曲线群图，查找每块样地的病基指数。通过相关性分析筛选关键立地因子，运用数量化理论Ⅰ分别建立赤松赤枯病病基指数与全部立地因子和关键立地因子的关系方程，并对方程模型做出评价。结果: 1）相关性分析表明，海拔、土壤质地和腐殖质层厚度对病基指数具有极显著的影响（P < 0.01），坡向对病基指数具有显著影响（P < 0.05），且对病基指数的贡献大小顺序是坡向 < 土壤质地 < 海拔 < 腐殖质层厚度。2）全部立地因子和关键立地因子与病基指数的多元线性回归模型在统计上均达到极显著水平（P < 0.01），决定系数（R²）分别为0.710 0和0.678 0，说明模型的拟合效果较好，且可用4个关键立地因子代替全部立地因子作为方程自变量。3）对4个关键立地因子与赤松赤枯病病基指数的模型进行场外检验，表明平均预估误差（MPE）是8.73%，说明预估精度为91.27%以上，且TRE值较趋近于0，模型较可靠。结论: 赤松赤枯病病基指数立地因子评价体系可以定量预测欲植林地潜在遭受赤松赤枯病侵染的程度，能够为适地适树地栽植赤松林以及预防赤松赤枯病提供理论基础。

关键词: 赤松, 赤松赤枯病, 病基指数, 纯林, 昆嵛山

Abstract:

Objective: In order to avoid planting Pinus densiflora(Japanese red pine, JRP) in the woodland which is potentially seriously damaged by JRP blight(Pestalotiopsis funerea), the disease based index(DBI)-site factors evaluation system was established to quantitatively predict the degree of potential pathogen infection of JRP needle blight in the forest land to be planted. Methods: The disease based index of each sample plot was found based on the DBI curve group graph of JRP needle blight. Through correlation analysis, the key site factors were selected, the relationship equations between DBI-all site factors and DBI-key site factors of JRP needle blight were established by using the quantificative theory I. Results: 1) Correlation analysis showed that elevation, soil texture and humus depth had an extremely significant influence on disease based index(P < 0.01), slope aspect had significant influence on disease based index(P < 0.05), and the order of contribution to disease based index was slope aspect < soil texture < elevation < humus depth. 2) The multiple linear regression model of all site factors, key site factors and disease based index reached the extremely significant level statistically(P < 0.01), and the determination coefficient(R²) was 0.710 0 and 0.678 0, respectively, indicating that the model had a good fitting effect, and 4 key site factors could be used to replace all site factors as the independent variables of the equation. 3) A field test on model (2) (DBI-key site factors) showed that the average estimation error(MPE) was 8.73%, indicating that the estimation accuracy is above 91.27%. the TRE value is close to 0, thus the model is reliable. Conclusion: Disease based index-site factors evaluation system can quantitatively predict potential infection of JRP needle blight, which can provide theoretical basis for optimum planting and prevention of JRP needle blight.

Key words: Pinus densiflora, pine needle blight, disease based index, pure plantation, Kunyushan Mountains

中图分类号:

S718

胡瑞瑞,梁军,谢宪,车吉明,苑晓雯,张英军,张星耀. 昆嵛山区欲植赤松林地赤枯病病基指数预测[J]. 林业科学, 2020, 56(12): 83-90.

Ruirui Hu,Jun Liang,Xian Xie,Jiming Che,Xiaowen Yuan,Yingjun Zhang,Xingyao Zhang. Prediction Disease Based Index of Needle Blight Disease (Pestalotiopsis funerea) in Pinus densiflora Pure Forest in Kunyushan Mountains[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(12): 83-90.

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项目Item	代号 Code	类目等级Category hierarchy
项目Item	代号 Code	1	2	3	4
坡形Slope form	x₁	平直Straight	凹Concave	凸Convex	复合Complex
坡向Slope aspect	x₂	阳坡Sunny	半阴坡Semi-shady	半阳坡Semi-sunny	阴坡Shady
坡位Slope position	x₃	下Down	中Middle	上Up
土壤质地Soil texture	x₄	壤土Loamy	砂壤土Sandy loam	砂土Sandy	黏土Clay
海拔Elevation/m	x₅
坡度Slope degree/(°)	x₆
土层厚度Soil depth/cm	x₇
腐土厚Humus depth/cm	x₈

病基指数 DBI	海拔 Elevation/m	坡度 Slope degree/(°)	土层厚度 Soil depth/cm	腐殖质层厚度 Humus depth/cm	坡形 Slope forms	坡向 Slope aspect	坡位 Slope position	土壤质地 Soil texture
平方和 Sum of squares(SS)	4 604.667	76.072	1916	5 025.385	97.612	1 086.884	876.660	1 905.586
F	34.095	0.563	0.014	37.210	0.241	3.246	2.683	4.703
P	< 0.01	0.453	0.901	< 0.01	0.862	0.040	0.050	< 0.01

项目 Item	类目 Category	得分 Score	T	P
坡形 Slope form (x₁)	平直Straight	-2.345	-0.817	0.416
	凸Convex	-0.897	-0.239	0.812
	凹Concave	-0.224	-0.135	0.893
	复合Complex	0.000
坡向 Aspect (x₂)	阴坡Shady	9.461	2.334	0.021
	半阴坡Semi-shady	6.461	1.970	0.049
	半阳坡 Semi-sunny	1.689	0.670	0.504
	阳坡Sunny	0.000
坡位 Slope position (x₃)	下Down	-6.034	-2.278	0.025
	中Middle	-4.912	-1.870	0.064
	上Up	0.000
土壤质地 Soil texture(x₄)	壤土Loamy	-15.058	-5.267	< 0.001
	砂壤土Sandy loam	-14.001	-4.819	< 0.001
	砂土Sandy	-13.728	-4.301	< 0.001
	黏土Clay	0.000
海拔Elevation(x₅)		-0.053	-5.697	< 0.001
坡度Slope degree(x₆)		0.074	0.737	0.462
土层厚度Soil dapth(x₇)		-0.009	-0.500	0.618
腐殖质层厚度 Humus depth(x₈)		-1.679	-6.273	< 0.001
截距Intercept		80.720	13.247	<0.001

项目 Item	类目 Category	得分 Score	T	P
截距Intercept		77.055	17.431	< 0.001
坡向 Aspect (x₂)	阴坡Shady	9.081	2.290	0.053
	半阴坡Semi-shady	6.425	2.015	0.046
	半阳坡Semi-sunny	1.689	0.797	0.427
	阳坡Sunny	0.000
土壤质地 Soil texture(x₄)	壤土Loamy	-15.031	-5.595	< 0.001
	砂壤土Sandy loam	-14.868	-4.961	< 0.001
	砂土Sandy	-14.125	-4.595	< 0.001
	黏土Clay	0.000
海拔Elevation(x₅)		-0.052	-5.759	< 0.001
腐殖质层厚度 Humus depth(x₈)		-1.605	-6.243	< 0.001

模型Model	评价指标Evaluation index
模型Model	R	P	R²	RMSE
(1)	0.842 6	< 0.01	0.710 0	8.529 4
(2)	0.823 4	< 0.01	0.678 0	10.685 4