• 论文与研究报告 •

### 基于分层贝叶斯法的杉木人工林最大密度线

1. 1. 中国林业科学研究院林业研究所 国家林业局林木培育重点实验室 北京 100091;
2. 南京林业大学南方现代林业协同创新中心 南京 210037
• 收稿日期:2015-04-23 修回日期:2016-06-02 出版日期:2016-09-25 发布日期:2016-10-20
• 通讯作者: 张建国
• 基金资助:

### A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Maximum-Size Density Line for Chinese Fir Plantation in Southern China

Cui Lingjun1,2, Zhang Xiongqing1,2, Duan Aiguo1,2, Zhang Jianguo1,2

1. 1. Key Laboratory of Tree Breeding and Cultivation of State Forestry Administration Research Institute of Forestry, CAF Beijing 100091;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing 210037
• Received:2015-04-23 Revised:2016-06-02 Online:2016-09-25 Published:2016-10-20

Abstract: [Objective] Self-thinning line is an important curve for describing the tree death in a certain stand. The objective of this study was to provide a new idea for exploring self-thinning law using hierarchical Bayesian method based on the Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) data with different initial densities in Fujian Province.[Method] Firstly, the maximum-size density equation was established according to the relationship between stand quadratic mean diameter and number of trees per hectare. For analyzing the effect of initial density on maximum-size density line, we introduced the hierarchical Bayesian models: 1) random effect on the intercept; 2) random effect on the slope; 3) random effects on the intercept and slope. [Result] The results showed that the hierarchical Bayesian models (R2=0.867 8) were better than non-hierarchical Bayesian model (R2=0.859 3). The random effects of initial density were not significant neither on the intercept (σ02=0.008,SD=0.029) nor on the slope (σ12=0.003,SD=0.016). In addition, the uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability.[Conclusion] Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables on maximum-size density line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of maximum-size density line. The research of maximum-size density line could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method and helpful for managing Chinese fir plantations.