Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (6): 37-45.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210604
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Rui Bai1,2,3,Ning Li4,*,Shaojun Liu2,Xiaomin Chen1,Haiping Zou1,Run Lü1
Received:
2020-02-18
Online:
2021-06-25
Published:
2021-08-06
Contact:
Ning Li
CLC Number:
Rui Bai,Ning Li,Shaojun Liu,Xiaomin Chen,Haiping Zou,Run Lü. Risk Analysis of White Root Disease on Rubber Trees in China under the Background of Future Climate Change[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(6): 37-45.
Table 1
Model simulation verification based on disaster"
年份 Year | 历史记录病害发生地点 Historical record of the location of the disaster | Maxent模型模拟病害风险区 Maxent model simulates the location of disaster | 符合程度 Conformity | 文献出处 Reference source |
1973 | 马来西亚Malaysia | 马来西亚Malaysia | 符合 Accord | |
1976 | 斯里兰卡Sri Lanka | 斯里兰卡Sri Lanka | 符合 Accord | |
1978、1990 | 尼日利亚Nigeria | 尼日利亚Nigeria | 符合 Accord | |
1983 | 中国海南省琼海市 Qionghai City of Hainan province in China | 中国海南省琼海市 Qionghai City of Hainan province in China | 符合 Accord | |
1986 | 科特迪瓦Ivory Coast | 科特迪瓦Ivory Coast | 符合 Accord | |
1999 | 泰国Thailand | 泰国Thailand | 符合 Accord | International Rubber Research and Development Board |
Table 2
Contribution percent, permutation importance and risk value range of major environment factors"
代码 Code | 主导环境因子 Major environment factors | 贡献率 Contribution percent | 排列重要性 Permutation importance | 风险值范围 Risk value range |
Bio7 | 年均温变化范围Temperature annual range | 26.715 3% | 4.728 8 | < 21 ℃ |
Bio13 | 最湿月降水量Precipitation of wettest month | 17.406 2% | 7.161 1 | >200 mm |
Bio2 | 昼夜温差月均值Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly) | 10.169 4% | 15.806 2 | 6~14 ℃ |
Bio11 | 最冷季度平均温度Mean temperature of coldest quarter | 10.112 5% | 33.336 7 | >15 ℃ |
Bio4 | 温度季节性变化标准差Temperature seasonality(Standard deviation×100) | 9.780 2% | 6.346 0 | < 4.8 |
Bio6 | 最冷月最低温度Min temperature of coldest month | 8.276 5% | 6.573 7 | >10 ℃ |
Bio16 | 最湿季度降水量Precipitation of wettest quarter | 4.650 5% | 0.808 7 | >500 mm |
Bio12 | 年降水量Annual precipitation | 3.647 8% | 5.933 7 | >1 000 mm |
Bio15 | 降水量季节性变化变异系数Precipitation seasonality (Coefficient of variation) | 3.599 9% | 1.938 8 | < 110% |
Bio1 | 年平均温度Annual mean temperature | 1.810 4% | 5.208 7 | >17 ℃ |
Bio18 | 最暖季度降水量Precipitation of warmest quarter | 1.389 2% | 4.645 2 | >280 mm |
Bio3 | 等温性Isothermality | 1.351 6% | 3.176 1 | >0.35 |
Bio10 | 最暖季度平均温度Mean temperature of warmest quarter | 1.090 5% | 4.336 3 | 21~31 ℃ |
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