基于MaxEnt模型的胡杨潜在适生区预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191214

Abstract

Abstract:

Objectve: The MaxEnt ecologic niche model was used to predict the potential distribution area of Populus euphratica, in order to determine the potential distribution area of P. euphratica in China, and provide scientific basis for the introducing, cultivating technology, protection, utilization, and sustainable management of P. euphratica resources. Method: Through the literature search, database search, and field investigation, the distribution site information of P. euphratica was obtained. According to the environmental characteristics of the growing area of P. euphratica and its growth characteristics, 29 environmental factors were selected, including climatic, soil, and topographic factors. Main limiting factors for the P. euphratica distribution were determined by using multiple combination, and consequently the potential distribution areas of P. euphratica in China were identified. Meanwhile, using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the model precision was tested. Result: The result showed that the total potential distribution area of P. euphratica in China was 1.328 3 million km², accounting for 14.8% of the total land area of China. The potential distribution areas were Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The optimum distribution areas were Central South Xinjiang and the Ejina Basin of west Inner Mongolia, with a total area of 231 200 km², accounting for 2.4% of the total land area of China. Among them, the optimum distribution area in Xinjiang is 224 200 km², accounting for 96% of the total optimum distribution in China. The main environmental factors affecting P. euphratica potential distribution are the precipitation of the wettest month, altitude, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, temperature annual range, temperature seasonality. Conclusion: The optimum distribution areas of P. euphratica require the climatic conditions of mean annual air temperature of 9.4-11℃, an extreme high air temperature of 39.2-44℃, an extreme low air temperature of-17—-25℃, the annual precipitation of 32.9-43.7 mm, and the soil pH-values of 7.9-8.5 as well as the altitude around 1 000 m.The result can be used to determine the suitable areas for the introduction and cultivation of P. euphratica to avoid the losses of human labor, material and financial resources due to improper decision, and to provide a scientific basis for the future introduction, cultivation and management of P. euphratica.

Key words: Populus euphratica, MaxEnt model, environmental variables, suitable area, potential distribution, habitat suitability assessment, identification

CLC Number:

S718.5

Jingwen Li,Hao Guo,Yusheng Wang,Zhiming Xin,Yongjun Lü. Identification of Potential Distribution Area for Populus euphratica by the MaxEnt Ecologic Niche Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(12): 133-139.

Figures/Tables 2

Table 1

Table 2

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省份 Province	最适宜区面积 The most suitable area/km²	适宜区面积 Suitable area/km²	次适宜区面积 Sub-suitable area/km²	不适宜区面积 Non-suitable area/km²
新疆维吾尔自治区Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region	224 165	285 030	391 064	651 466
内蒙古自治区Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region	6 204	82 543	217 749	802 349
宁夏回族自治区Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region	97	4 220	17 687	29 068
甘肃省Gansu Province	590	5 313	89 006	330 435
合计Sum	231 183	377 322	719 818	8 179 369

环境变量 Environment variables	贡献率 Contribution rate	累计贡献率 Accumulated contribution rate
最湿月降水量Precipitation of wettest month	56.67	56.67
海拔Altitude	6.97	63.63
气温日较差Mean diurnal temperature range	4.85	68.48
气温季节差Temperature seasonality	4.17	72.65
最湿季平均气温Mean temperature of wettest quarter	3.97	76.62
土壤有效含水量Soil effective water content	3.78	80.40
年降水量Annual precipitation	3.74	84.14
有机碳含量Organic carbon content	3.33	87.47
等温性Isothermality	2.60	90.07
极端最高气温Extreme maximum temperature	2.57	92.64
气温年较差Temperature annual range	2.18	94.82
土壤酸碱度Soil pH	1.89	96.71
年平均气温Annual mean temperature	1.46	98.18
可交换钠盐含量Exchangeable sodium salt content	1.14	99.31
最冷季平均温度Mean temperature of coldest quarter	0.69	100.00

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Identification of Potential Distribution Area for Populus euphratica by the MaxEnt Ecologic Niche Model

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